Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
San Francisco 49ers offensive tackle Trent Williams has not been at training camp this offseason, and he remains away from the team just a few weeks away from the season-opening game against the New York Jets. Williams is seeking a revised contract, and Kyle Shanahan is hopeful the two sides will strike an agreement soon. "I've had some contact with him. It's been good talking to him," Shanahan said. "We're negotiating hard. Hopefully, it's getting close." The 31-year-old is an 11-time Pro Bowler and has been named a first-team All-Pro in each of the last three seasons. The 49ers offense would likely take a hit if the future Hall of Famer isn't on the field, so surely, the organization will do everything possible to get him on the field in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders are releasing kicker Riley Patterson following the trade for former Cleveland Browns kicker Cade York, according to John Keim of ESPN. Patterson has spent time with six NFL organizations since going undrafted out of Memphis in 2021. He's seen regular-season action with the Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Cleveland Browns, and has made 59 of his 67 field goal attempts through the first 39 contests of his career. Patterson's 88.1% career field goal percentage is above the league's average, so it would not be surprising if he lands another opportunity this season.
From RotoBaller
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are releasing defensive end/outside linebacker Randy Gregory after he never reported to training camp this offseason. The 31-year-old fully repaid his $1.3 million roster bonus before his release. Gregory, a second-round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, has appeared in 60 games for the Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, and San Francisco 49ers and has compiled 106 tackles, 22 sacks, and 10 forced fumbles. The Nebraska product has been somewhat productive during his six-year NFL career, but he's been tough to depend on lately.
From RotoBaller
The Cleveland Browns are trading kicker Cade York to the Washington Commanders in exchange for a conditional seventh-round pick, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport. The Commanders have reportedly struggled with the kicker position during camp, so York is being brought in to help alleviate that issue. York was selected in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft out of LSU, and he went 24-of-32 on field goal tries during his rookie campaign. The Browns released him following his rookie season, and he spent time with the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants before ultimately landing with the Browns again this offseason. The Commanders released Riley Patterson in a corresponding move, so York should have a clear path to starting placekicking duties.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons All-Pro cornerback A.J. Terrell agreed to a four-year, $81 million contract extension that includes $65.8 million guaranteed, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport. The No. 16 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft out of Clemson has racked up 247 tackles, one sack, four forced fumbles, four interceptions, and 43 passes defended in his first 61 pro games. He was named a second-team All-Pro in 2021. Terrell now becomes the second-highest-paid cornerback in NFL history, and the Falcons lock down a key defensive piece to go along with Pro Bowl safeties Jessie Bates III and Justin Simmons.
New England Patriots kicker Joey Slye appears to have won the competition with Chad Ryland for starting kicking duties to begin the 2024 regular season. Slye hit all four of his kicks at training camp practice on Wednesday from 33,41,47 and 50 yards out. Meanwhile, Ryland hit his 33-yarder and then missed his next three kicks. For most of camp, Slye was clearly the better kicker from distance, but now he's proving to be better from intermediate range as well. Two of Ryland's misses weren't close, and his third miss was a doink off the right upright. It remains to be seen if Ryland or another kicker is kept around on the practice squad as a second option if Slye struggles early on in 2024. The 28-year-old Slye has a strong leg but has made just 82.3% of his 32 field-goal attempts in five NFL seasons and will be kicking for an offense that could have a rookie QB starting as early as Week 1.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason (hip) made his return to training camp practice on Wednesday after sitting out last weekend's preseason game against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday with hip soreness. In addition to Mason, the Niners also got Elijah Mitchell (hamstring) and rookie Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) back at practice this week, leaving just Christian McCaffrey (calf) sitting out. McCaffrey has been working out on side fields and remains on track to be ready for the Week 1 regular-season opener, so the 25-year-old Mason will be competing with Mitchell for the RB2 role in the final two weeks of camp. It's unclear how many RBs the Niners will carry on the initial 53-man roster, but Mason's special teams contributions could be the deciding factor. The power runner has averaged 5.6 yards per carry in his two NFL seasons but is mostly just a dynasty/keeper stash until he has a more clear role.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce confirmed on Wednesday that quarterback Aidan O'Connell won't play in the preseason finale on Friday against the San Francisco 49ers. The Raiders named Gardner Minshew II as their starting QB earlier this week, and the Raiders will hold both Minshew and O'Connell out of action this weekend, with Carter Bradley and Nathan Peterman set to split the reps under center. The 25-year-old O'Connell will enter his second NFL season as the backup to Minshew, but if Minshew struggles early on, don't be surprised if Pierce gives O'Connell a shot. He went 5-5 as the starter in 2023 after the team moved on from Jimmy Garoppolo, throwing 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Ultimately, experience won out for Pierce, with Minshew having 37 career NFL starts under his belt. For now, O'Connell is merely a QB3/4 bench stash in superflex fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers running back AJ Dillon (stinger) is being held out of practice due to a stinger that Dillon suffered toward the end of last season. Per Matt LaFleur, Dillon being held out of practice is for precautionary reasons. With Dillon being held out and backfield mate MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) nursing an injury of his own, the Green Bay backfield has been hit hard with the injury bug. Dillon averaged just 3.4 yards per attempt in his worst season as a pro, with 613 rushing yards on 178 attempts. The role for Dillon is up in the air with Lloyd's injury and Josh Jacobs coming in to be the top running back for the Packers. It's a thin bet to expect Dillon to have a fantasy-friendly role in 2024 outside of injury, so keep him undrafted in fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
The Philadelphia Eagles released veteran tight end C.J. Uzomah on Wednesday. The Eagles signed Uzomah to a one-year pact in April and with the competition in camp, felt it necessary to cut the journeyman loose to free agency. Uzomah spent the last two seasons with the New York Jets after eight seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals. Playing sparingly for the Jets last season, Uzomah managed just eight receptions on 12 targets for 58 yards and a touchdown grab. The Eagles' depth chart at tight end comprises Dallas Goedert, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Grant Calcaterra.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver Tyquan Thornton has been a part of the top unit of wide receivers with Demario Douglas and Ja'Lynn Polk during practices. It's quite a leap for Thornton as he's shown out with so much wide receiver competition via the NFL Draft and in free agency. While K.J. Osborn and Kendrick Bourne will be a part of the wide receiver rotation, the third-year receiver Thornton has made a big splash following a disappointing sophomore season where he brought in just 13 receptions for 91 yards. While Thornton is somebody we're not drafting in fantasy football leagues, if he continues to surprise, we should take notice of the former 2022 second-rounder.
From RotoBaller
Alex Barth reports that New England Patriots rookie wide receiver Javon Baker seems to have fallen out of the top receiver rotation for the Patriots. Selected in the fourth round of this past April's NFL Draft, Baker isn't making plays as regularly as he was at the start of training camp. Barth reports that "based on his practice reps, it doesn't look like he'll have a big role in the offense once the season starts." Given the shaky depth of the Patriots' receiver room, it looked like Baker could work his way into the regular rotation, but it's not looking that way now. Baker looks like he's on the outside looking in for regular work heading into Week 1, so you can leave him undrafted in seasonal fantasy formats. If an injury strikes, Baker could be somebody to watch.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots rookie first-round quarterback Drake Maye took a big step on Wednesday as he took his reps with the projected starting offense during padded practices and competitive drills at training camp. In any of the first 17 practices, Maye took zero reps with that projected starting unit. Maye did not throw a pass with that unit, but getting on the field with that grouping was the next step for his development. While it's looking more likely that veteran signal-caller Jacoby Brissett will begin the season as the Patriots' starting quarterback, the third-overall pick Maye should eventually take over at some point in 2024. For fantasy circles, Maye offers plenty of mobility and a strong arm, so he should be considered on the waiver wire once he's tabbed to start this season for New England.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Saints running back Kendre Miller's roster spot seems to be in doubt. Dynasty Analysis: Miller has been unable to practice most of camp and Head Coach Dennis Allen has repeatedly made comments about him being tough to evaluate when he's hurt. While it seems early for the Saints to give up on Miller, it's clear New Orleans is losing patience with their young running back and his roster spot certainly doesn't seem to be guaranteed at the moment. This is a story to watch as the Saints have precious little depth behind Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams.
Dynasty | Jerry Jones said Trey Lance has earned a roster spot. Dynasty Analysis: Lance has been solid in the preseason completing 40-of-64 passes for 339 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions, while adding 78 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in two contests. He may not win the backup job over Cooper Rush but Jones is "guaranteeing" he makes the final roster. He may still be a trade target out there for a QB-needy team at some point in the season so dynasty owners should keep him on their short list if he isn't already rostered.
Dynasty | The Denver Broncos have named Bo Nix their starting quarterback. Dynasty Analysis: As expected. The Broncos promoted a "competition" between Nix, Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson but Nix was the heavy favorite after Denver jettisoned Russell Wilson. Sean Payton clearly has all his eggs in the Nix basket, so he was going to do all he could to make this a reality. Nix helped him out by having a solid preseason and looking like he has veteran poise already. Nix will be a QB2 to start but he's certainly in position for early success.
New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen said he doesn't think wide receiver Rashid Shaheed's (toe, foot) injury will keep him out for an extended period of time, and he's not dealing with turf toe. Shaheed's injury caused him to miss the second preseason game last weekend against the San Francisco 49ers. While the 25-year-old might not be able to play in the preseason finale this Sunday versus the Tennessee Titans, Allen's comments on Wednesday at least make it sound like he'll have a chance to be ready for the Week 1 regular-season opener in two weeks. The former undrafted free agent from Weber State entered last year as the team's WR3 behind Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, but his involvement in the offense didn't really increase all that much after Thomas' season-ending ankle injury. Shaheed is still probably more useful to the Saints as an All-Pro kick returner, but he could also have a bigger role in the offense in 2024, making him a more palatable boom/bust WR4/5 wideout.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers WR Trent Taylor (undisclosed) and WR Danny Gray (undisclosed) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Aug. 21.
From TheHuddle
There have been concerns about Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin's stationary preseason usage in Kliff Kingsbury's offense, but ESPN's John Keim doesn't think it should be a big talking point since the Commanders aren't going to show everything they plan to do in preseason contests. Keim doesn't think McLaurin will be stationary on the outside once the regular season begins, and McLaurin has even said himself that he's playing more of the slot this year. It especially makes sense for Washington to move the 28-year-old pass-catcher around because they are looking for other wideouts to step up behind him so far in training camp and the preseason. McLaurin had a fourth straight 1,000-yard season in 2023 but also posted career-lows in yards per catch (12.7) and yards per target (7.6). If his target share improves, McLaurin could be a steal as a WR3/flex in 12-team leagues, but he'll also be working with a rookie QB.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys are signing veteran defensive tackle Linval Joseph, who played with the Buffalo Bills last season. In his return to defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's system, Joseph will receive $2.5 million guaranteed, potentially earning up to $4 million. Now entering his 15th NFL season, Joseph has previously played for the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Buffalo Bills. A two-time Pro Bowler from East Carolina, Joseph won a Super Bowl with the 2011 Giants as a starting defensive tackle. Last season, he recorded 12 tackles and one sack in seven games with Buffalo, joining the team as a free agent in early November. This move is part of the Cowboys' effort to strengthen their defensive line during training camp, joining new additions like Jordan Phillips, Carl Lawson, and Al-Quadin Muhammad. The Cowboys' ability to build a formidable line around All-Pro Micah Parsons could make their defense a strong option in fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller