Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
The Invitational Live Stream
The Pittsburgh Steelers were reportedly a call away from landing wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk in a trade with the San Francisco 49ers. However, new details about the situation have shed light on the hold-up of the talks. The Steelers offered Aiyuk less than $28 million annually for a new contract. The offer has pushed Aiyuk back to the contract negotiation table with the 49ers. It appears that Aiyuk may not be able to get the top-of-market contract he seeks after all. Aiyuk is coming off a career year in which he caught 75 passes for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns. He is due for a new contract as he enters the fifth year of his rookie deal. Aiyuk has not participated in training camp or the preseason while he seeks a new contract. For now, fantasy managers will need to monitor whether the Steelers will increase their offer or if Aiyuk will come to terms with the 49ers.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Broncos quarterback Bo Nix compoleted 8-of-9 passes for 80 yards and a touchdown in Denver's preseason game against the Packers. Dynasty Analysis: Simply put, Nix has done nothing to make Sean Payton think of starting anyone else week one. This was the latest positive sign as he looked poised in the pocket and again took care of the football. Nix looks like a player with five years of college experience and ready to take on his new challenge. At this point, he's looked competent enough to keep the fantasy values of Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams, and others afloat, though there will clearly be some bumps in the road. He remains a second round rookie pick in conventional drafts and creeping higher in 2QB leagues as we await official confirmation of him starting.
Dynasty | The Washington Commanders have named Jayden Daniels their starting quarterback. Dynasty Analysis: No real surprise here as Daniels really wasn't challenged much by now journeyman Marcus Mariota in camp. He's been impressive in limited action and in training camp, so Washington clearly sees no reason to keep him on the bench. Daniels remains a top-2 pick in Superflex formats but also remains one of the bigger boom or bust players at the position we've seen in some time.
Dynasty | The Falcons are sitting quarterback Michael Penix Jr for the final preseason game. Dynasty Analysis: This seems unusual considering Kirk Cousins is the clear starter. However, the Falcons brass is simply saying they've seen enough of Penix to know what they have and don't want to risk injury. While camp reports have been glowing, we still haven't seen enough of him to really determine how good he may be and likely won't barring a catastrophe regarding Cousins. Penix remains a high upside player who dynasty managers will need to be very patient with.
Miami Dolphins WR Odell Beckham Jr. (undisclosed) is not expected to practice this week, according to head coach Mike McDaniel.
From TheHuddle
The Buffalo Bills announced that quarterback Josh Allen, along with the team's other starters, will not play in Saturday's preseason finale against the Carolina Panthers. Head coach Sean McDermott originally planned to play his starters, but after the team saw multiple players suffer injuries over the weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers, they are not taking any chances. Backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (knee), wide receivers Curtis Samuel (toe) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (neck), and tight end Quintin Morris (shoulder) are all expected to miss multiple weeks.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars QB C.J. Beathard (groin) will not play in the final preseason game because of a groin injury, according to head coach Doug Pederson.
From TheHuddle
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford (hamstring) was limited to individual drills during practice Monday, Aug. 19.
Fantasy Spin: Stafford likely will be eased back into practice so the team can make sure he is ready for Week 1. He has one of the better receiver duos to work with in the NFL but may only be a No. 2 quarterback in most leagues.
From TheHuddle
Buffalo Bills WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (neck) and TE Quintin Morris (shoulder) are expected to miss several weeks because of injuries.
From TheHuddle
Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (undisclosed) did not practice on Monday, but head coach John Harbaugh said, "Don't worry about Mark; he's going to be fine." The 28-year-old was involved in a car crash last week, but he reportedly did not suffer any injuries. It's unclear why Andrews is currently out of action, but it doesn't sound as if he's at risk of missing any meaningful time. Andrews missed seven games last season after suffering a cracked fibula and an ankle ligament injury, but he returned for the AFC Championship Game against the Kansas City Chiefs. He should be ready to go when the season begins, and even though rising wideout Zay Flowers presents solid target competition, Andrews could still be Lamar Jackson's top target in the passing game. He's priced around the TE5 spot in preseason drafts and has overall TE1 upside.
From RotoBaller
The Miami Dolphins released running back Salvon Ahmed on Monday, according to NFL insider Ari Meirov. Ahmed went undrafted out of Washington in 2020 and spent four years with Miami following a brief stint with the San Francisco 49ers. In 38 career games, he rushed 163 times for 593 yards and five touchdowns to go along with 40 receptions for 274 yards and one score. With the Dolphins adding rookie Jaylen Wright to an already-crowded running back room featuring Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane, the writing was on the wall for the end of Ahmed's tenure in Miami. Given the injury rate at the running back position, it wouldn't be surprising if he's on an active roster for another team before the 2024 NFL season wraps up.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent RB Anthony McFarland (Steelers), FB Zander Horvath (Saints), WR Jadon Janke (Texans) and LB Dequan Jackson (Jaguars) signed with the Miami Dolphins Monday, Aug. 19. Terms of the contracts were not disclosed. The team also released RB Salvon Ahmed, waived/injured LB Zeke Vandenburgh (undisclosed) and placed WR Willie Snead (undisclosed) and OG Sean Harlow (undisclosed) on the Reserve/Injured list.
From TheHuddle
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (undisclosed) has not practiced with the team this offseason due to an undisclosed injury, and head coach Mike McDaniel said he will remain out of action this week. The veteran and former Super Bowl Champion is missing valuable preseason repetitions with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but the organization might be holding him out as a precaution given his lengthy injury history. If Beckham is ready to go for Week 1, he's an interesting late-round best-ball option, but it would be a surprise if he's a weekly contributor in traditional fantasy football lineups. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have a tight grip on the No. 1 and No. 2 wide receiver roles, and rookie Malik Washington could make an impact right away. Beckham has not posted more than 600 receiving yards in a season since 2019, so he can be ignored in most formats.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (knee) was knocked out of the preseason game against the Pittsburgh Steelers due to a knee injury, and head coach Sean McDermott said he will miss a few weeks of action. The Bills are also labeling wide receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling (neck) and Curtis Samuel (toe) as week-to-week. With Trubisky sidelined, third-string quarterback Ben DiNucci is likely to play most of the Week 3 preseason game against the Carolina Panthers. Trubisky can continue to be rostered in deep Superflex formats, but obviously, he doesn't have any value as long as Josh Allen stays healthy.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent CB Chris Wilcox (Chargers), CB Quandre Mosely (Buccaneers), CB Willie Drew (Panthers), WR Sam Pinckney (Panthers) and RB Jaden Shirden (Panthers) signed with the Carolina Panthers Monday, Aug. 19. Terms of the contracts were not disclosed. The team also placed QB Jake Luton (undisclosed) and CB Anthony Brown (thumb) on the Reserve/Injured list and waived/injured CB Lamar X. Jackson (undisclosed), WR Tayvion Robinson (undisclosed) and RB Dillon Johnson (undisclosed).
From TheHuddle
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel (toe) is considered week-to-week as he deals with turf toe, according to head coach Sean McDermott. This is unfortunate for Samuel and the team, especially since Marquez Valdes-Scantling is also week-to-week with a neck injury. It's never a good sign for a player to pick up preseason injuries, but at least Samuel's injury is manageable, and he could still play in Week 1. Given all the new faces in Buffalo and injuries already starting to pile up, it could take time for the passing game led by Josh Allen to get going in 2024. Still, Samuel remains an intriguing late-round sleeper in fantasy football, while teammates Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir could benefit from his absence this preseason.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Christian Kirk (calf) will be held out of practice this week, according to sources Monday, Aug. 19.
From TheHuddle
Buffalo Bills QB Mitchell Trubisky (knee) is expected to miss multiple weeks, according to sources Monday, Aug. 19.
From TheHuddle
Buffalo Bills WR Curtis Samuel (toe) is considered week-to-week with turf toe, according to sources Monday, Aug. 19.
Fantasy Spin: Samuel figured to have a prominent role in the offense so this brings a bit more risk to his profile as a late-round sleeper. This should give a nice bump to Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir and rookie Keon Coleman.
From TheHuddle
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase returned to training camp practice on Monday. Due to an ongoing contract dispute with the team, Chase has been present at camp but hasn't been participating in on-field workouts. The 24-year-old star pass-catcher also hasn't seen any preseason action during his hold-in. It remains to be seen if the two sides can work out a long-term contract extension before Week 1 rolls around, but even if they don't, Chase profiles as an elite top-five fantasy wideout with quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist) back to full health after a season-ending wrist injury in 2023. The former fifth overall pick in 2021 out of LSU has all kinds of chemistry with Burrow, dating back to their college days, and has been a Pro Bowler in each of his first three seasons in the NFL, racking up 3,717 yards and 29 touchdowns on 268 receptions.
From RotoBaller