Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
Carolina Panthers kicker Eddy Pineiro (hamstring) didn't return for the second half of Saturday's preseason finale against the Buffalo Bills. Pineiro was forced to exit the game due to mild hamstring soreness. Head coach Dave Canales said afterwards that Pineiro is fine and the team held him out for precautionary reasons. Before exiting, Pineiro made both his extra-point attempts and a 45-yard field goal during the first half of Saturday's game. The assumption is that Pineiro should be fine for the regular season opener against the New Orleans Saints.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields completed three of his four pass attempts for 40 yards and added four rushing yards on two carries in a preseason loss to the Detroit Lions. Fields followed up an impressive scoring drive led by Russell Wilson with a touchdown drive of his own and remained in the contest for two additional possessions. The 25-year-old looked sharp early, most notably on a strike to tight end MyCole Pruitt for a gain of 22 yards that set up an easy score for La'Mical Perine. His second drive was much less successful as Fields was credited with a fumble on a clear miscommunication with rookie center Zach Frazier. Following the game, head coach Mike Tomlin declined to name a Week 1 starter, but it would be surprising at this point to see Fields get the nod over Wilson. The situation is still worth monitoring for fantasy purposes due to Fields' immense rushing upside.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back Craig Reynolds (leg) is expected to be available for the regular season opener, according to head coach Dan Campbell. Reynolds suffered a leg injury during Thursday's practice. It's not believed to be serious, but Reynolds was held out of the preseason finale for precautionary reasons. He's currently competing with Sione Vaki for the No. 3 role in Detroit. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are the two primary options in this backfield. It's unlikely that Reynolds or Vaki have a significant role in the backfield while Gibbs and Montgomery are healthy. Whether he's healthy or not, Reynolds can probably be avoided in most fantasy formats.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Stetson Bennett will serve as the backup for Week 1 and Week 2 of the regular season. This was expected to happen with Jimmy Garoppolo suspended for the first two weeks of the season. Bennett sat out of the preseason finale after starting the first two games. He threw for 437 yards with two touchdowns and five interceptions during the preseason. Those aren't exactly great results, but Bennett isn't likely to see the field at all in 2024. Matthew Stafford should be full healthy and ready to go for the season opener. Garoppolo should take over as the primary backup once he's cleared to play, so Bennett is unlikely to play at all unless Stafford gets injured in the first two games.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson completed each of his two pass attempts for 26 yards in a 24-17 preseason loss to the Detroit Lions. George Pickens was the only player targeted by Wilson on the team's first drive of the contest. The duo connected for a 32-yard gain that eventually set up a Cordarrelle Patterson rushing touchdown. Although head coach Mike Tomlin declined to name a Week 1 starter on Saturday, the team certainly gave Wilson QB1 treatment when it pulled him from the preseason finale after one scoring drive. If Wilson struggles early in the regular season, Justin Fields could push for the starting job, making the veteran a risky selection as a low-end QB2 in superflex fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers kicker Greg Joseph was solid in his final preseason game, making both field goal attempts and kicking home an extra point in the Packers' 30-7 win against the Baltimore Ravens. Joseph made a 36-yard attempt in the beginning of the second quarter, nailed a PAT in the third quarter, and then with just under two minutes left in the fourth quarter, drilled a 55-yard attempt. Joseph is in a tough kicking competition with incumbent starter Anders Carlson, but the race is a bit close to call at this moment. The Packers wanted to give Carlson some legitimate competition and Joseph, last season's kicker for the Minnesota Vikings, was just that throughout camp. Wait and see before drafting either kicker in fantasy, but whoever wins the Packers' job should have decent value given how powerful the Packers' offense is.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers second-year kicker Anders Carlson struggled as a rookie, missing five extra points and making 27-of-33 field goals last season. In today's final preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens, Carlson made both extra point attempts and made a 54-yard field goal in the first quarter, but missed a 32-yard field goal wide right in the fourth quarter. While Carlson has been solid throughout camp in his battle with former Vikings kicker Greg Joseph to retain the starting kicker job, the final miss this preseason may linger in the head of head coach Matt LaFleur when making his decision. Carlson seems to have an edge on Joseph but could have a shorter leash once the season begins. Carlson is tough to trust as a fantasy selection at kicker, but could be a waiver wire add if things are going well as the Packers should be one of the better offenses in the league.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Malik Heath led the Packers in all receiving categories during their final preseason tune-up against the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday afternoon. Heath, the second-year receiver out of Ole Miss, led the Packers with five targets and a four-catch, 39-yard effort, including a third-quarter touchdown from Sean Clifford. The Packers sat Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks, leaving the starting wide receivers to be Heath and Bo Melton, of whom Heath is battling to be the team's WR5 this season. The Packers have an embarrassment of riches at the receiver spot, so the team may opt to keep six on the 53-man roster, but the race is too close to call if the Packers only keep one. Heath was a sporadic contributor last season but was not fantasy-relevant. He shouldn't be drafted, but if any of the receivers ahead of him are hurt, Heath could contribute if he makes the roster.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Bo Melton scored a touchdown on a beautiful throw from rookie Michael Pratt on Saturday afternoon in the Packers' final preseason matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. With the Packers sitting Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks, Melton got some extra time to shine on Saturday and delivered with that second-quarter score. Melton only earned two targets and caught one, but made it count. While the first four receivers are set in stone for the Packers, the fifth wide receiver slot is up for grabs between Melton and second-year pro Malik Heath, who also caught a touchdown on the day. The Packers may opt to keep both Melton and Heath on the 53-man roster, but if not, it's likely a decision between the two. For fantasy purposes, there's no need to draft Melton but keep an eye on him if any of the other receivers get hurt as Melton was productive toward the end of 2023 for the Packers.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Jaren Hall played well in the team's last preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles, completing 17 of 25 passes for 189 yards and two touchdowns while adding 11 yards on the ground. The 26-year-old led the Vikings on five consecutive scoring drives and left the game with a 23-3 lead. The second-year quarterback out of BYU was on the roster bubble with the possibility of joining the Vikings' practice squad but may have made the final cut as Hall looked sharp and decisive. If Hall does indeed get cut, expect him to be swiftly signed by another team. The former BYU Cougar likely will enter the 2024 regular season as the Vikings' QB3 behind starter Sam Darnold and backup Nick Mullens.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers rookie quarterback Michael Pratt was solid in his final preseason outing against the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday afternoon. Pratt was 8-of-12 for 80 yards with an 18-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter to Bo Melton. He also threw an interception in the third quarter to Trenton Simpson, where Pratt recklessly came flying in to make the tackle and was shaken up on the play. In the post-game press conference, head coach Matt LaFleur said Pratt "lost his wind" when trying to make the post-interception tackle. Pratt is battling incumbent backup quarterback Sean Clifford to be the QB2 behind Jordan Love this season, but the race is too close to call yet. The Packers travel to Brazil and open their season on September 6 against the Philadelphia Eagles.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers quarterback Sean Clifford struggled yet again in the Packers' third and final preseason contest against the Baltimore Ravens. Clifford was 6-of-14 for 53 yards with a touchdown pass to Malik Heath in the third quarter. The second-year pro from Penn State Clifford and rookie Michael Pratt alternated every two drives in their heated QB2 battle behind Jordan Love. Pratt has outplayed Clifford in the last two preseason contests but the race is too close to call with Clifford having the leg up with one more season of experience. The winner of this battle will be Love's direct backup when the Packers travel to Brazil to open their regular season on Friday, September 6 against the Philadelphia Eagles.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Jaren Hall played most of the second half against the Cleveland Browns on Saturday, looking sharp in his limited passing opportunities. The 2023 fifth-round pick completed four of his five passes for 87 yards and two scores while rushing for 11 yards on two attempts, including an incredible 71-yard bomb to Jeshaun Jones. The Vikings were ahead by multiple scores for much of Hall's playtime, so he did not have many chances to show off his arm, but he was effective when he could. The second-year quarterback bounced back from a disappointing first preseason game, and at a good time for that, too -- the backup quarterback position in Minnesota has been in flux with rookie J.J. McCarthy (knee) being placed on injured reserve earlier this week. Hall made his case to be on the 53-man roster for the Vikings and will need to fight off Nick Mullens and newly signed Matt Corral for the opportunity.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland (foot) will undergo surgery and is expected to be sidelined for six to eight weeks. "DaRon Bland experienced foot discomfort on Wednesday of last week during training camp in Oxnard," the team disclosed in a statement. "Imaging revealed a stress fracture in his foot." The 25-year-old had a monster season in 2023-24, finishing with a league-leading nine interceptions, returning five for a touchdown. Without question, his absence is significant for the Cowboys' defense overall. Rookie Caelen Carson is anticipated to take over while Bland is out of commission.
From RotoBaller
According to Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles, running back Chase Edmonds (undisclosed) is expected to begin the season on the injured reserve list. No surprise here, considering the veteran back has been battling an unspecified ailment throughout training camp. Of course, the No. 1 spot on the depth chart is held by Rachaad White, who narrowly missed the 1,000-yard rushing mark in 2023-24. As a result, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker will be looking for scraps, although neither player should be viewed as anything more than an insurance policy.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston will start in Saturday's preseason matchup with the Seattle Seahawks. Under normal circumstances, a lineup move for a preseason game wouldn't mean much. However, with Deshaun Watson (arm) having issues with "general arm soreness" of late, the Browns would benefit from giving Winston all the snaps he can handle. It also means Watson won't get his first taste of in-game action since November until the Browns commence the 2024-25 campaign on September 8 versus the Dallas Cowboys, so the signal-caller could have some residual rust to shake off. Of course, guys like Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and David Njoku (undisclosed) may suffer from a production standpoint if Watson struggles.
From RotoBaller
The Bears cut tight end Tommy Sweeney on Saturday. He signed a deal with Chicago a few months ago after spending his entire career in Buffalo. The 29-year-old appeared in 24 contests for the Bills. However, he had just 18 catches for 165 yards and one touchdown. With Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, and Marcedes Lewis on the roster, the Bears are set heading into the 2024-25 campaign. Regarding Sweeney's future, there's a chance he could at least earn a spot on another team throughout the National Football League. Yet, his fantasy value can't get any lower, nor will it improve anytime soon.
From RotoBaller
The Cleveland Browns have ruled out quarterback Deshaun Watson (shoulder) for their preseason finale on Saturday night against the Seattle Seahawks. Watson, who has not played since having season-ending shoulder surgery last November, is next slated to play in the team's regular-season opener against the Dallas Cowboys in early September. It's not really a surprise after the 28-year-old signal-caller was held back in Wednesday's practice with general arm soreness. With Watson sitting on Saturday, backup Jameis Winston will draw the start versus Seattle. Watson is best considered as a QB2 with upside in fantasy after playing in a total of 12 games the last two years with Cleveland due to injuries. The former first-rounder proved in 2020 with the Houston Texans, though, that he has clear QB1 upside, throwing for a league-high 4,823 yards with 33 TDs and only seven interceptions.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers rookie seventh-round wide receiver Brenden Rice has flashed with physicality in routes and catching in training camp and the preseason, enough to earn a spot on the 53-man roster and compete for time at receiver, but he probably is the sixth receiver on the depth chart. Fellow seventh-round rookie Cornelius Johnson struggled with drops in camp and hasn't had the positive days that many of his draft peers have, making him a long shot to make the team. The 22-year-old Rice is the son of Jerry Rice. He had 1,402 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns in his final two seasons at USC and could eventually become a nice red-zone weapon because of physicality. But for now, fantasy managers should only really consider him a long-term stash in dynasty/keeper formats.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver DJ Turner is a roster lock and is projected to be the team's WR3 behind Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Tre Tucker, according to The Athletic's Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed. Turner was already a great special teams player but has sealed his spot by making plays on offense while being lined up all over the field. Jalen Guyton is general manager Tom Telesco's guy from the Los Angeles Chargers and seems like a reliable option with some speed. Tyreik McAllister's punt return for a touchdown in the preseason finale on Friday night against the San Francisco 49ers may have sealed him the final WR spot over Kristian Wilkerson. Wilkerson is more likely to be signed back to the practice squad. Turner, 27, has no catches in his first two years in the NFL and is unlikely to be on the fantasy radar unless one of the players ahead of him on the WR totem pole goes down with an injury.
From RotoBaller