Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
The Invitational Live Stream
Atlanta Falcons running back Carlos Washington Jr. ran nine times in Saturday's game for 39 yards while receiving no work in the passing game in a 13-12 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday. After averaging less than 2.0 yards per carry last week on 16 attempts, Washington was much more efficient on the ground this week, averaging over 9.0 per carry. The 25-year-old seemed to have the edge over Jase McClellan for the RB3 job according to the Falcons' official depth chart, but now it seems to be a tight-knit race for that job with McLellan running the ball extremely well so far in the first two preseason games. Look for this race for the RB3 spot to continue on Friday when the Falcons take on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Josh Johnson put together a nearly perfect half of football in the team's 13-12 win over the Atlanta Falcons on Saturday afternoon. The veteran completed all 11 of his pass attempts for 120 yards and a touchdown and carried the ball twice for eight yards on the ground. The lone miscues were a sack for 12 yards and a miscommunication with the center that led to a fumble, but it didn't officially count in Johnson's box score. In the first quarter, a lot of Johnson's throws were short passing plays, but he ended up completing big play after big play in the second quarter. In the touchdown drive, he completed passes of 12, 13, and 31 yards respectively, capped off by a six-yard score to Owen Wright.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons running back Jase McClellan rushed 11 times for 55 yards and scored a touchdown in a 13-12 preseason loss against the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday. After leading the team in rushing in preseason Week 1 with 35 yards, McClellan followed suit and led the team in rushing again this week. The lone touchdown for McClellan and the Falcons came with only 39 seconds left on the clock in the fourth quarter and was followed by a failed two-point conversion, which led to the eventual one-point loss. The young 22-year-old out of Alabama has carried the ball 20 times for a solid 85 yards, 4.25 YPC, and one touchdown in two preseason games thus far. The battle for the RB3 in Atlanta looks like a close one this preseason between McClellan and Carlos Washington Jr. The Falcons RB3 battle will continue next week when the Falcons take on the Jaguars on Friday Night at home.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons Kicker Younghoe Koo had a rough time on the field Saturday morning, going 2-for-5 in field goal attempts in a 13-12 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in preseason Week 2. Koo nailed the hard one through the uprights from 54 yards away but missed on a 40-yarder, 45-yarder, and 49-yarder before converting on his last field goal attempt of the night at 24 yards out. It was an uncharacteristic night for one of the league's top kickers, but he has plenty of time to get right before the season begins in September.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth caught his lone target for a 10-yard gain in a 9-3 loss to the Buffalo Bills in preseason action on Saturday. Freiermuth drew the start and played with the first-team offense, ripping off a 10-yard gain on Pittsburgh's second drive of the contest. The veteran tight end had a down season in 2023 but could be primed for a bounce-back as he should see more targets with Diontae Johnson no longer on the team. That being said, the Steelers could be run-heavy on offense so it is best to treat Freiermuth as a mid-range TE2 in upcoming fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields played well in his team's 9-3 preseason loss to the Buffalo Bills on Saturday. Fields completed 11 of his 17 passes for 92 yards and added eight rushes for 42 yards in the loss. Veteran quarterback Russell Wilson got the start and played most of the first half, with Fields taking over with 2:04 left on the clock before halftime. Wilson has missed a portion of camp with a calf injury while Fields has flashed at times. Early in the preseason the Steelers tabbed Wilson as their Week 1 starter but the calf injury plus Fields' solid play has made this an interesting situation to monitor as the Week 1 season opener against the Atlanta Falcons looms in a few weeks.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris carried the ball four times for 17 yards and was not targeted in the passing game in a 9-3 loss to the Buffalo Bills in preseason action on Saturday. Harris got the start and rotated with backfield mate Jaylen Warren with the starters, checking out for the night just before halftime. Harris and Warren are expected to work in tandem in the Pittsburgh offense this season, although the latter left the game in the second quarter with a hamstring injury and did not return. If Warren's injury were to stretch into the regular season, Harris could see bell-cow usage in the early going. Even if Warren heals quickly, Harris is an interesting bounce-back candidate in fantasy this season with run-focused offensive coordinator Arthur Smith calling the plays for the Steelers.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens caught one of his two targets for four yards in a 9-3 preseason loss to the Buffalo Bills on Saturday. Pickens could have had a much bigger game as he made an impressive, one-handed contested catch along the sidelines but couldn't quite get his second foot down inbounds, resulting in an incompletion. Pickens is currently slotted in as the Steelers' No. 1 wide receiver as the regular season approaches, although he would be moved to a secondary role if Pittsburgh ends up completing the long-rumored Brandon Aiyuk deal with the San Francisco 49ers. For now, Pickens can be treated as a WR2 in fantasy drafts but could wind up as more of a low-end WR3/flex play if Aiyuk winds up as his teammate.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson made his first preseason appearance with his new team in a 9-3 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Saturday. Wilson completed eight of his 10 passes for 47 yards in the contest while taking three sacks. The veteran drew the start and worked about halfway into the second quarter before calling it a night and stepping aside for Justin Fields. Wilson has missed a large portion of camp with a calf injury but the team has been calling him the Week 1 starter, although Fields has performed well in camp and could push Wilson for the chance to be under center in the opener against the Atlanta Falcons.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver John Metchie III delivered his best preseason performance on Saturday against the New York Giants, recording a team-high six catches for 68 yards and his first professional touchdowna 3-yard pass from Case Keenum. This strong showing comes after Metchie had only two receptions for 11 yards in his previous two games. After suffering an ACL tear during the 2021 SEC Championship Game, Metchie missed out on a potential first-round draft position. The Texans selected him with the 44th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, but he was sidelined for his rookie season due to a diagnosis of acute promyelocytic leukemia. Returning in 2023, he caught 16 passes for 158 yards but struggled to secure a prominent role. Now, Metchie is aiming to secure one of the final receiver spots for Week 1, with one more preseason game to compete against Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson, and Ben Skowronek.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz delivered his strongest preseason performance against the New York Giants on Saturday, catching three passes for 39 yards, including a standout 26-yard reception from C.J. Stroud. Schultz emerged as Stroud's most targeted player while the starters were on the field, receiving five of Stroud's 12 throws. This is a promising sign for Schultz, who faces competition for targets from three top wide receivers. However, Schultz's role is somewhat overshadowed by his backups; Brevin Jordan also saw two of Stroud's 12 targets and looked solid with the starters, while rookie Cade Stover has been impressive in previous preseason games. Despite these challenges, Schultz remains a valuable high-end TE2 with the potential for high-ceiling weeks in a dynamic Texans offense.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce started the preseason game against the New York Giants but struggled to make an impact, managing only four carries for five yards. Pierce averaged a disappointing 1.3 yards per carry, failing to show any improvement from his previous performance. In contrast, Cam Akers, serving as his primary backup, ran for 29 yards on six carries, including a long of 14 yards. Akers, who was signed at the beginning of training camp, has quickly emerged as a legitimate roster contender, transforming from a camp body into a potential backup to Joe Mixon. His familiarity with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's scheme has helped him catch up despite joining late. J.J. Taylor led the Texans' running backs with 36 yards on five carries, and rookie British Brooks scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns. However, with both Taylor and Brooks unlikely to make the final roster, the primary focus for the Texans will be the competition for Mixon's backup role.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs made his presence felt in Saturday's preseason game against the New York Giants, catching a 9-yard pass from C.J. Stroud for a first down in Houston's 28-10 victory. Although Diggs, a four-time Pro Bowler acquired from the Buffalo Bills, only had one reception, it was special as it was his first in a Texans uniform. His brief appearance demonstrated that he is already developing a strong rapport with Stroud. During the 15 snaps Stroud played, Diggs was on the field for 11, while starting receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell were on for 13 and 8 snaps, respectively. Collins is expected to lead in target and snap share, with Dell likely serving as the big-play threat. The question remains whether there will be enough targets left for Diggs to justify his current ADP in fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks kicker Jason Myers went 3-for-3 on field goal attempts in Saturday's preseason loss to the Tennessee Titans. Myers made tries from 29, 48, and 50 yards out. The only blemish on his stat line was the missed extra point that followed Easop Winston Jr.'s first-quarter touchdown. The Titans' margin of victory in the game? One point. Myers was perfect on extra-point attempts last season but this is the second try he has missed in as many weeks. The 33-year-old is Seattle's incumbent kicker, though another misfire in the preseason finale against the Browns on August 24 might prompt the team to look at other legs. Myers has been a useful fantasy asset in the past but is by no means automatic.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud delivered a strong performance in his second preseason game against the New York Giants, although the offense didn't score while he was on the field. Stroud led the Texans downfield on the opening drive effectively, but the team failed to convert a fourth down on the Giants' 6-yard line. Stroud showcased impressive command and appeared to be in midseason form. The Texans' strategy this year seems to focus heavily on the passing game, as they passed ten times and rushed only four times in the first quarter with starters. This approach bodes well for Stroud's fantasy prospects, indicating significant passing volume. Stroud finished the game 7-of-10 for 88 yards. If he's done for the preseason, his overall stats will be 9-of-14 for 129 yards and one touchdown. Stroud has a solid opportunity to be a top-five fantasy quarterback this year, but his lack of rushing may limit his overall ceiling.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Easop Winston Jr. caught three of his four targets for 47 yards and a touchdown in Saturday's preseason loss to the Tennessee Titans. The score was an absolute beauty. Barely a step ahead of cornerback Tre Avery, Winston looked over his shoulder as he crossed the goal line in time to snag a 23-yard arcing pass from Sam Howell for the touchdown. Winston also had a 15-yard reception with eight seconds left in the first half, advancing a drive that resulted in a field goal before the break. Winston is playing for a roster spot and, assuming he does make the cut, would be unlikely to challenge DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba for targets.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks running back Kenny McIntosh led the team in carries and rushing yards in Saturday's loss to the Tennessee Titans. The second-year back had eight attempts for 46 yards and caught both of his targets for 17 yards through the air. McIntosh is competing with George Holani and Kobe Lewis to be the Seahawks' third-string running back. Last week, Holani scored a touchdown and Lewis led the team with eight carries. Against Tennessee, the two combined for six carries and a gain of two yards. The usage on Saturday indicates McIntosh is ahead on the depth chart for now, though he will still be behind Kenneth Walker III and Zack Charbonnet when the regular season begins.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Howell went 11-for-14 for 153 yards and a touchdown in Saturday's loss to the Tennessee Titans. Howell looked shaky early on as the Titans blitzed aggressively out of the gate resulting in back-to-back three-and-outs. Howell actually fumbled while being sacked on the second drive but had the good fortune that a teammate was in position to fall on the ball. Howell recovered well on the team's third possession resulting in a touchdown to Easop Winston Jr. This was Howell's second start in as many preseason games for the Seahawks. Geno Smith (hip/knee) returned to practice last week and carried no designation coming into Saturday but ultimately sat. Howell will be backing up Smith to start the season but it was an encouraging effort after the early miscues.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys rookie wide receiver Ryan Flournoy led the Cowboys in catches in a preseason win over the Las Vegas Raiders. He also scored a touchdown. Flournoy was targeted six times, also a team high, and made four catches for 23 yards. His touchdown came on a goal line pass from Trey Lance in the second quarter. Flournoy is buried on the depth chart, especially once CeeDee Lamb returns from his holdout, but he's shown signs of developing some offensive relevance in the future. He's worth keeping an eye on in keeper and dynasty formats.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Royce Freeman led the team in carries in a preseason win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Freeman ran the ball seven times, gaining 32 yards with a long play of eight yards. He wasn't targeted in the passing game. Freeman tied with quarterback Trey Lance for the team lead in carries with seven, with several other backs getting five running plays each. Freeman is third at best on the depth chart for the Cowboys, behind Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle, but there certainly could be a role for him if injuries were to pop up.
From RotoBaller