Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (ankle) was carted off the practice field on Wednesday with an apparent leg injury. After practice concluded, head coach Kevin O'Connell said it was an ankle tweak, and he's unlikely to practice on Thursday. However, he said the injury is not believed to be serious, and he thinks Addison is going to be "OK." This is a sigh of relief for the Vikings on a day it was announced that rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy (knee) would miss the entire 2024 season after undergoing surgery on his meniscus. While it doesn't appear Addison's injury will hold him out of Week 1 of the regular season, he still has a possible suspension looming stemming from a DUI charge earlier this offseason, so fantasy managers should stay tuned for that development.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns CB Denzel Ward (concussion) is going through the concussion protocol, according to head coach Kevin Stefanski.
From TheHuddle
Tennessee Titans WR Tyler Boyd (foot) is dealing with a bruise on his foot and could miss a few practices.
From TheHuddle
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (back) remained out of Wednesday's practice at training camp. Kamara is managing a back issue that he's dealt with in the past, and there appears to be a minimal amount of concern regarding the star back's health at this point. It's looking unlikely that he'll make an appearance in Sunday's preseason game against the hosting San Francisco 49ers, though. Kamara has plenty of risk in 2024 fantasy drafts while entering his age-29 season and witnessing his rushing efficiency decline in each of the last three years, but his role in New Orleans' passing game as quarterback Derek Carr's security blanket cannot be ignored. Last year, Kamara drew 87 targets despite missing four games via suspension, ranking third among RBs in full-PPR fantasy points per game (17.9). Until Kendre Miller (hamstring) is back at practice, Kamara remains a decent RB2 bet in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers quarterback Sean Clifford will start this week's preseason game versus the Denver Broncos on Sunday as Jordan Love won't play, head coach Matt LaFleur announced on Wednesday at training camp. Rookie Michael Pratt will serve as the backup quarterback on Sunday against the Broncos. After completing each of his two passes for 63 yards and a touchdown in last week's preseason opener against the Cleveland Browns, Love will take a seat this weekend before presumably returning to action for a regular-season tune-up against the Baltimore Ravens on Aug. 24. In an ascending Packers offense, the 25-year-old star signal-caller has his sights set on taking another leap forward in 2024 after closing as fantasy's overall QB5 in points per game (19.4) over 17 appearances in 2023 during his first year as Green Bay's full-time starter.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent CB Rudy Ford (Packers) signed an undisclosed contract with the Carolina Panthers on Wednesday, Aug. 14. Also, DE Kemoko Turay (undisclosed) was waived off injured reserve and CB Clayton Isbell was waived.
From TheHuddle
Carolina Panthers wide receiver Diontae Johnson (groin) is dealing with a mild groin strain and is considered day-to-day, head coach Dave Canales told reporters at Wednesday's practice during training camp. Soft-tissue injuries always have a chance to linger, but it would likely be an overreaction at this point to significantly alter Johnson's standing in fantasy rankings based on this development. It remains to be seen if he'll be able to return to practice ahead of Saturday's preseason game against the visiting New York Jets. Without very much competition surrounding him in Carolina's receiving corps, Johnson figures to be the focal point of the Panthers' passing game in 2024 as quarterback Bryce Young's top target. The 27-year-old veteran wideout is a WR3 with WR2 upside in the second half of fantasy drafts this summer.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver coach Connor Embree says that rookie Xavier Worthy has impressed him most with his ability to pick up the playbook quickly. Embree says he'll do more than Rashee Rice did as a rookie, but they're not going to overload him. With Marquise Brown (shoulder) sidelined for up to six weeks, however, Worthy may now have to take on a more pronounced role for the Chiefs in Year 1 than expected to begin the season. It's worth noting that Rice was consistently held under 60% of KC's offensive snaps per game during the first half of last year as a rookie before the team finally unleashed him during the second half. Worthy profiles as a young DeSean Jackson in many ways, and the 21-year-old first-rounder's stock is certainly on the rise in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts as quarterback Patrick Mahomes' likely top deep threat to start 2024.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent DL Carlos Watkins (Cardinals) signed an undisclosed contract with the Los Angeles Rams on Wednesday, Aug. 14.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent DL Nick Williams (Chargers) signed an undisclosed contract with the San Francisco 49ers on Wednesday, Aug. 14. To make room on the roster, LB Ezekiel Turner was waived.
From TheHuddle
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans left Wednesday's joint practice with the Jacksonville Jaguars early, but he was able to return to the session later on. Evans initially walked off the field without assistance, so there's no reason for fantasy managers to be concerned with what sounds like a false alarm here. The 31-year-old Pro Bowl wideout has entrenched himself as a fantasy stalwart throughout his career, and while his role in Tampa Bay as quarterback Baker Mayfield's primary deep threat means his floor might not be as high as those being selected around him, Evans' ceiling remains among fantasy's highest after he totaled 36 deep targets and 13 touchdowns in 17 games for the Bucs last season. He's a fringe WR1/2 option in drafts this summer.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings rookie first-round quarterback J.J. McCarthy (knee) will miss his entire rookie season after having successful surgery on Wednesday morning on the meniscus in his knee. The Vikings announced on Tuesday that the 21-year-old had a meniscus tear in his right knee, and apparently he needed a full repair, which will cost him all of 2024. The 12th overall pick in this year's NFL draft was fully expected to start his rookie year as the backup to Sam Darnold while the team slow-played his development, but there was still a good chance he would have seen the field this year, especially if Darnold struggled in the starting role. Now, McCarthy will rest and rehab and learn from the sidelines. He can obviously be avoided in all single-year fantasy leagues. Nick Mullens will open the regular season as Darnold's backup.
From RotoBaller
NFL Network's Tom Pelissero is reporting rookie QB J.J. McCarthy will miss the entire 2024 season after having his torn meniscus repaired today.
Tennessee Titans wide receiver Treylon Burks was immediately pulled from training camp practice on Wednesday after suffering from cramps involving his calf/hamstring. Conditioning issues and injuries have plagued Burks in his first two NFL seasons. The former 18th overall pick in 2022 has been a bust for the Titans to this point, especially after catching only 16 passes for 221 yards and no touchdowns in his sophomore campaign in 11 games played. The 24-year-old has been running with the first-team offense this summer, though, mainly because of DeAndre Hopkins' knee injury. Burks' fantasy stock heading into 2024 took a huge hit when Tennessee added Calvin Ridley to the fold, but he could be worth a late-round flier in deeper fantasy leagues if Hopkins isn't ready to go for Week 1 in early September.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey (undisclosed) is dealing with an undisclosed injury that is minor and could practice if needed, head coach Mike McDaniel said on Wednesday, Aug. 14. In addition, S Jevon Holland (undisclosed) is day-to-day as he continues to work through an undisclosed minor injury.
From TheHuddle
The Cleveland Browns agreed on a three-year deal worth up to $39 million with $25 million guaranteed with standout, do-it-all linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah on Wednesday, according to sources. The 24-year-old cashes in after a Pro Bowl season in 2023 in which he set career-highs in total tackles (101), solo tackles (72), sacks (3.5), tackles for loss (20), QB hits (five), interceptions (two) and pass breakups (six) in 16 regular-season games in his third year in the league. Owusu-Koramoah was drafted in the second round (52nd overall) in 2021 out of Notre Dame and will once again be a big part of Cleveland's imposing defense in 2024. In IDP fantasy leagues, he's at least worth a look as a bench option at the linebacker position.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent DE Derek Rivers (Texans) and WR Greg Ward Jr. (Eagles) signed undisclosed contracts with the Indianapolis Colts on Wednesday, Aug. 14. To make room on the roster, WR Ethan Fernea (undisclosed) was waived with an injury designation and S Kendell Brooks was waived.
From TheHuddle
Miami Dolphins WR Odell Beckham Jr. (undisclosed) is working his way back but has not began running routes yet, head coach Mike McDaniel said on Wednesday, Aug. 14. McDaniel added that he isn't concerned about Beckham not practicing throughout camp.
From TheHuddle
The early beneficiary of Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Marquise Brown's (shoulder) injury in training camp practices has been Justin Watson, who is taking many of the snaps that would have gone to Brown. Watson last year was tied for second among the team's receivers in catches with 27. With Brown's status up in the air for Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens, KC may have to keep seven receivers to open the year. Others competing for roster spots include Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, Nikko Remigio and Justyn Ross. Hardman, Moore and Ross played for the Chiefs last year, but none of them were very consistent. Watson will see increased chances with Brown out, but rookie Xavier Worthy will be asked to be the team's big-play wideout, and he's the much better late-round target for fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller