Fri Jul 12 12:51pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Coaching Changes
When the Super Bowl ends and the NFL offseason gets underway, fantasy football owners immediately start looking towards the NFL draft. They’re scouting players, studying combine metrics, projecting landing spots and are already making decisions regarding which rookies to invest in and which to avoid. The attention then falls to mini-camps – who’s attending, who may hold-out – followed by beat-writer hype articles telling us which players are in the best shape of their lives.
But what the common fantasy player doesn’t explore is the coaching movement and regardless of how important you think player analysis might be, without studying the coaches and their offensive systems, your player evaluations will always fall short. You can have the most talented player in the world, but if he doesn’t fit into the coach’s scheme, he’s not going to produce for you in fantasy. The best way to illustrate this is to bring back an argument I had with someone regarding Austin Ekeler last season.
When Kellen Moore was first named the offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, I was immediately out on Ekeler. When SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio asked me to post my top-five running backs for the 2023 season, I left him off the list and was immediately attacked. I was called a donkey with added comments of how I should be banned from the channel. Why? Because Ekeler was coming off a season in which he rushed for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns while also catching a career-best 107 passes for 722 yards and another five scores. Of course, he’s a top-five running back this year too, right? This is where my sarcastic eye roll goes.
But what this buffoon failed to understand is that Kellen Moore runs an entirely different system than Joe Lombardi, the coordinator he replaced. Lombardi’s system thrives on outside-zone running and demands a heavy dose of running back pass-plays. In fact, over the last five years, a Lombardi-run offense ranked in the NFL’s top-five for running back targets. Ekeler’s wheelhouse, so to speak. Remember what Lombardi did for Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Go check out his stats from those years as the receiving targets were massive.
Moore’s offense, on the other hand, uses a power-run to set up the passing attack downfield. When he was in Dallas, we saw this first-hand as Ezekiel Elliott was his go-to guy and those who invested in Tony Pollard for his pass-catching abilities languished in frustration. So, when Moore moved over to the Chargers, what were we to expect? That a five-year NFL coaching veteran was going to trash the scheme he built? Sorry. It just doesn’t work that way.
The results were obvious. Ekeler’s role diminished as running between the tackles was not his strong-suit and both his targets and receptions were dramatically reduced as well. Some like to use his early-season high-ankle sprain as an excuse, but Ekeler played in 13-straight games following the Chargers’ Week 5 bye and still failed to produce the fantasy totals his owners were expecting. His usage was simply not the same.
The ripple effects of Moore’s hiring in Los Angeles didn’t end with Ekeler, because, as stated earlier, he replaced Joe Lombardi who then went to Denver to rejoin Sean Payton and resurrect the offense they ran together in New Orleans. Not only did their combined group of running backs lead the NFL in receiving targets, we also saw Courtland Sutton shine bright because Lombardi’s scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver. Think Marques Colston, Michael Thomas and even Mike Williams that one year with the Chargers. While the Jerry Jeudy truthers were out and about hyping a guy who didn’t fit Lombardi’s scheme, I was literally screaming at everyone to draft Sutton in the 10th round. He led the team in targets and touchdowns and those who listened were handsomely rewarded for their astute bargain-hunting.
And so, how do we take all of this and put it towards our research for the 2024 NFL season? Well, we now see Kellen Moore in Philadelphia which should make you feel more confident in drafting Saquon Barkley at his ADP. Lombardi and Payton are still in Denver so Sutton has continued promise, as does Javonte Williams who, now a full two years removed from his ACL injury should take the lead in that Broncos backfield.
Need another example? We can also look at how Alex Van Pelt, the offensive coordinator who made David Njoku a fantasy beast in Cleveland, is bringing his scheme to the Patriots. The situation in New England is eerily similar in that there are limited options at receiver yet there is a strong pass-catching tight end in Hunter Henry. He’s currently coming off the board as TE19 which means, if he even does half of what Njoku did last year, he’s going to be an amazing value at the position.
Following the coaching movement and understanding what offensive systems are being implemented will help you make better decisions on Draft Day. You can certainly research everything on your own, but I do make things easier for you in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide over at Fantasy Alarm. I break down every team, every coach, every scheme, every tendency, every personnel package and even which players best fit within their system. No one else is doing that for you, are they? If you’re looking to level-up your fantasy game, this is how you do it.
Bender out.
The 2024 season will be a "redshirt" year for New York Jets rookie fifth-round quarterback Jordan Travis (ankle), who is rehabbing from a devastating ankle injury that cut his college career short. The former Florida State star is expected to begin the 2024 regular season on one of the injury lists. The 24-year-old signal-caller hasn't played at all in training camp or the preseason and will merely be trying to work his way back onto the practice field during his first season in the NFL with the Jets. New York is not going to rush Travis' rehabilitation after he started camp on the Non-Football Injury list. Gang Green will open the regular season in a few weeks with Aaron Rodgers as the starter, with Tyrod Taylor serving as his primary backup.
From RotoBaller
ESPN New York's Rich Cimini writes that New York Jets rookie fourth-round running back Braelon Allen has easily been the most impressive rookie in training camp and is locked in as the RB2 behind starter Breece Hall heading into his first NFL season. The 235-pound bruising back will spell Hall and contribute as a short-yardage back in 2024. The 20-year-old was never really utilized much as a pass-catcher in college at Wisconsin, but he's also impressed with his hands this summer with the Jets. Allen relies more on his size and power as a RB instead of speed and agility. His stock is definitely on the rise in dynasty/keeper leagues, but because Hall is expected to be utilized so much (if healthy), it's hard to imagine Allen having any standalone fantasy value unless Hall misses time with an injury. In single-year leagues, Allen is merely a deep-league handcuff option, at best.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons rookie sixth-round wide receiver Casey Washington is already looking like a real value pick for the Falcons, as he's made some of the team's best catches in training camp and is in contention for Atlanta's fourth wide receiver role after the loss of Rondale Moore to a season-ending injury. Washington is competing with the likes of Chris Blair and KhaDarel Hodge for the No. 4 role behind Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III. The Falcons' offense is much more attractive to fantasy managers now that head coach Arthur Smith is gone and quarterback Kirk Cousins is leading the show. The 23-year-old had 49 catches for 670 yards and four touchdowns in his final season at Illinois last year. For now with just a depth role in Atlanta, Washington is one to watch in dynasty/keeper leagues.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase took part in practice on Sunday despite not having secured a new long-term contract extension from the team. It is the first time that Chase has practiced with the team at training camp this summer. The 2024 regular season starts for Cincy two weeks from this Sunday -- on Sept. 8 against the New England Patriots -- so Chase is running out of time to get up to speed in the offense. It remains to be seen if Chase and the Bengals will be able to work something out on an extension before the regular season kicks off in early September, but either way, the 24-year-old should be viewed as a top-five fantasy pass-catcher with quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist) back and fully healthy. Chase has been a Pro Bowler in each of his three years in the NFL and has gone over 1,000 yards receiving all three years.
From RotoBaller
ESPN New York's Jordan Raanan writes that New York Giants first-round rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers might be even better than advertised. Nabers has dominated throughout training camp and looks destined to be the team's No. 1 receiver to kick off the regular season. He dealt with an ankle sprain in camp, but he was back in less than a week after the injury and had four catches on six targets for 54 yards in one half of a preseason game against the Houston Texans. "Sky's the limit," fellow receiver Wan'Dale Robinson said. Raanan thinks a monster rookie season seems plausible given the way he's thrived this summer. The 21-year-old eighth overall pick has already shown chemistry with quarterback Daniel Jones and could have immediate WR2 fantasy value in his first year in the NFL if both he and Jones can stay healthy.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans rookie sixth-round wide receiver Jha'Quan Jackson has become a strong candidate for a 53-man roster spot out of training camp, according to ESPN's Turron Davenport. Jackson's explosive playmaking ability is helping him in an intense competition for a backup slot role, and his return potential on special teams hasn't helped his cause, either. Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins are the team's top two pass-catchers, with Tyler Body set to start out of the slot. If Jackson wins the backup slot role over Kyle Philips, he could become interesting in deeper fantasy leagues in 2024 if Boyd misses time with an injury. The 24-year-old from Tulane is undersized at 5-foot-9 and 188 pounds, but he could factor in as a deep threat occasionally for a new-look Titans offense that is expected to air the ball out much more. For now, Jackson is merely a player to monitor in dynasty/keeper formats.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Dee Eskridge performed well in the Seahawks' preseason finale against the Cleveland Browns on Saturday. Eskridge finished with three receptions for 19 yards and returned a punt 79 yards for a touchdown. Eskridge is buried on the wide receiver depth chart. His best chance at a roster spot may be as a returner. The former second-round pick has battled injuries and poor play throughout his career. However, his speed and skills as a returner may be an asset to the team.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks second-year running back Kenny McIntosh may have wrapped up the No. 3 running back spot on Saturday. McIntosh drew the start against the Cleveland Browns and finished with one reception for nine yards and one rushing attempt for 56 yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks must have felt like they saw enough from McIntosh because they turned the reins over to undrafted rookie George Holani following McIntosh's touchdown run. McIntosh was a seventh-round pick in 2023. He spent most of the year on injured reserve. McIntosh has been highly efficient this preseason. He has recorded 142 rushing yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts. He should provide the Seahawks with solid depth behind Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet.
From RotoBaller
In his final dress rehearsal on Saturday, Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba showed why he was a first-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. Smith-Njigba finished with two receptions for 32 yards on the Seahawks' masterful opening drive against the Cleveland Browns. Smith-Njigba showed off his hands and body control on a contested catch up the right sideline for 25 yards. During his rookie season, Smith-Njigba recorded 63 receptions for 628 yards and four touchdowns. He is poised to take a second-year leap in this offense. What is most encouraging is that the Seahawks primarily deployed three wide receiver sets during their opening drive. This would allow Smith-Njigba to share the field with long-time stalwarts DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. With new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb coming over from the University of Washington and introducing more creativity, Smith-Njigba may be worth a shot at his current draft price of WR39.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants quarterback Tommy Devito could be released when rosters trim down on Tuesday, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. DeVito was sacked eight times during the Giants' preseason finale and completed just over 50 percent of his pass attempts, which is not a great result for someone fighting to keep their job. Rapoport notes that DeVito previously expressed confidence in being signed by another team if the Giants cut him, but that's not necessarily a given following Saturday's performance. Of course, New York will keep Daniel Jones and Drew Lock on their roster, so DeVito's stint in the Big Apple hangs in the balance. If the Giants opt to roster just two quarterbacks, DeVito will be looking for a new job.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith went 4/5 for 62 yards and a touchdown on the Seahawks' opening drive against the Cleveland Browns on Saturday. The drive included highlight reel throws of 25 yards to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a 21-yard touchdown to DK Metcalf. After throwing an incomplete pass to Metcalf on the opening play, Smith went 4/4 over the next four plays to drive Seattle 62 yards for the touchdown. Fantasy managers can hope to see this type of efficiency and effectiveness when the regular season kicks off in a couple of weeks. If Smith plays like this, he will be a streaming option throughout the season. Additionally, this type of play would help support the pass catchers in Seattle.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf beat his defender one-on-one for a 21-yard touchdown reception on Saturday. Metcalf finished his only drive with the lone reception on two targets. The Seahawks' offense looked sharp, and quarterback Geno Smith was accurate and on time. The Seahawks' wide receivers were primarily deployed in three wide receiver sets. This should present a chance for more creativity and create space for Metcalf in the passing game. Metcalf is a redzone and endzone machine. Fantasy managers can draft Metcalf confidently knowing that he will be a featured part of this offense.
From RotoBaller
The Jacksonville Jaguars released wide receiver Denzel Mims on Sunday morning, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Mims has bounced around several NFL teams throughout his young career. Originally a Jets second-round pick, the Baylor product has also been rostered by the Lions, Steelers, and Jaguars. However, he hasn't appeared in a regular-season game since 2022 with New York. He played in 10 games that year, catching just 11 passes for 186 yards. He's still searching for his first NFL touchdown.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers backup quarterback Easton Stick has very little job security as the preseason wraps up, according to Daniel Popper of The Athletic. While Popper projects that Stick will make the team's initial 53-man roster, he notes that the Chargers could look to upgrade the backup quarterback role by signing someone who is cut by another team when rosters trim down on Tuesday. Los Angeles previously signed Luis Perez to compete with Stick, and while Perez likely didn't do enough to win a roster spot, all signs point to the Chargers seeking an upgrade over Stick. Of course, this news has minimal fantasy football implications as Justin Herbert is the Chargers' starting quarterback and has an incredibly firm hold on his job. He ranks as a fringe top-12 fantasy quarterback heading into the 2024 campaign.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams linebacker Ernest Jones has been given permission to seek a trade, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. Jones, a team captain, is heading into a contract year, and the two sides have not made significant progress on an extension. As a result, Jones gets to explore his options on the trade market. The 24-year-old made a significant impact on defense last year, registering 145 tackles and 4.5 sacks over 15 games. If traded, he would represent a major addition to an NFL roster with less than two weeks until the regular season gets underway.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants tight end Theo Johnson is expected to have a significant role in the receiving game, especially with Lawrence Cager (groin) missing extended time, according to Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com. Johnson, a rookie, is in line to open the year as New York's top pass-catching tight end after Darren Waller retired during the offseason. The Penn State product caught 34 passes for 341 yards and seven touchdowns in his final collegiate season last year. He ranks as a low-end TE2 in most redraft leagues ahead of the 2024 campaign.
From RotoBaller
Daniel Popper of The Athletic projects that Los Angeles Chargers running back Kimani Vidal will make the roster and be listed third on the depth chart behind Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. The competition for the third running back slot appeared to be wide open heading into the Chargers' final preseason game, with Vidal, Jaret Patterson, and Isaiah Spiller all competing for the role. Vidal didn't play in the preseason finale, which could suggest that he's already locked up a roster spot. The rookie led the team in rushing yards during Week 2 of the preseason, and he also caught two passes. Even if Vidal is confirmed as the Chargers' No. 3 running back, he should be avoided in fantasy football given his depth role behind Edwards and Dobbins.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams running back Boston Scott rushed 11 times for 34 yards in the team's final preseason game against the Houston Texans on Saturday. He was targeted once in the passing game but did not record a catch. Scott wasn't very efficient on his touches as he closed out his preseason. He is competing with Zach Evans for a backup role behind Kyren Williams and rookie Blake Corum. There wasn't much to see here as the Rams struggled to move the ball on offense as they went deep into their depth chart in the last preseason tuneup. Although Evans scored twice, neither Scott nor Evans really separated themselves in the preseason.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams running back Zach Evans led the team's backfield with 14 carries for 45 yards and two rushing touchdowns in Saturday's preseason finale against the Houston Texans. Evans scored on runs of 4 and 3 yards. It wasn't an extremely efficient game for Evans, but he was able to find the end zone twice and out-rushed his competition in Boston Scott (11 carries for 34 yards). Evans and Scott are competing for a backup role behind Kyren Williams and Blake Corum.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins made his lone field goal attempt in a 37-33 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in preseason action on Saturday. Hopkins made his preseason debut in the game, booting a 37-yarder before calling it a night and letting Lucas Havrisik take over kicking duties. Hopkins was dealing with an undisclosed injury earlier in training camp, so his availability on Saturday is a good sign that he will be ready for Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys. The veteran kicker was productive for the Browns last season, hitting 33 of his 36 field goals and adding 24 extra points but he's probably not worth considering as a top-12 fantasy kicker for the upcoming season.
From RotoBaller