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The Weekly Bender: Your Fantasy Football Informant

Mon Sep 16 8:28pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer

What a tumultuous first two weeks of the NFL season and fantasy football owners are repeatedly taking it on the chin right now. NFL injuries are piling up at a rapid rate, coaching tendencies we were expecting after the preseason are changing and player roles are evolving with each week that passes. The key for your success is all about what kind of student you are. If you’re not learning, you’re not winning.

As the old saying goes, “If you give a man a fish, he’ll eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he’ll eat for a lifetime.” I’ve spent over two decades working in the fantasy industry and I have long been a proponent for teaching people to be better fantasy players and NFL analysts. I’m not saying I’ve got it down perfectly, but my longevity in this business is not solely tied to my pretty face. I understand people, I know how to teach and my success rate is beautifully marked with an array of championship trophies and belts.

I also know that the majority of my job is hand-holding. It’s not that you don’t know how to analyze football. You know the game and you know the players. But you also suffer from ‘paralysis by analysis’ as you overthink and over-analyze every lineup choice you make. In many ways, I’m just the reassuring pat on the back you need to go into your weekly match-up confident in the calls you make.

The thing is, winning a fantasy football championship isn’t your job, but it’s MY job to help you achieve that goal. While you may know the game of football, you aren’t analyzing every game, every play and every personnel package I am diving into each week. You may not have the time to study all the snap counts or routes run. That’s why you come to me and that’s where my role as a teacher begins.

It was the great Huggy Bear who once told Starsky and Hutch, “I lay it out for you to play it out.” So here is my best attempt at being the fantasy football informant you need to win your championship with my Top 5 things I’ve learned through the first two weeks of the NFL season.

The Saints running game is for real, thanks to Klint Kubiak and Rick Dennison.

By now you’ve heard me talk about a Kubiak/Dennison run scheme enough to make you want to throw up, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t continue to pay attention. Watching the Saints go from an Air Coryell offense with power-gap blocking to a west coast offense with zone-blocking has been an absolute treat. Just ask those who listened during the preseason and drafted Alvin Kamara.

Through the first two weeks, Kamara has carried the ball 35 times for 198 yards and four touchdowns, while also catching seven passes for 92 yards and another score. The offensive line has taken to the zone-blocking extremely well as these linemen are all built better for lateral movement than north-south pushing and shoving. Mix it all up together and suddenly the entire offense us running more efficiently as Derek Carr is rocking a 76.9-percent completion rate and suddenly looks like a viable fantasy option.

Keep your focus on this rushing attack. Watch the match-ups each week because not only will this continue to help you in season long, but it will also help you in NFL DFS Pick Em contests. I used Kamara as my Pick of the Week back in Week 1 and will continue to study his stat lines every week moving forward. You can probably keep checking lines for Carr and his receivers as well.

Start whichever slot-receiver is facing the Detroit Lions.

In Week 1, Cooper Kupp saw 14 of his 21 targets when he was lined up in the slot. The results were, as I like to say, yummy delicious. Having identified that, I turned my attention to Chris Godwin of the Bucs in Week 2 to test the theory out and see if it was a one-off because of Kupp’s talent and the injury to Puka Nacua. Guess what? It’s a trend apparently, as Godwin saw another eight targets and came away with seven catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. He spent most of his time working out of the slot and for those who followed my lead, you reaped the benefits. I even used Godwin’s over 5.5 receptions in my Week 2 pick em article in order to share in it. Next week, the Lions host the Arizona Cardinals so let’s all keep an eye on Greg Dortch, shall we?

Start every WR1 who faces the Washington Commanders.

Until Washington head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Joe Whitt come to their senses, we are all about exploiting the shortcomings of Benjamin St-Juste as a cover corner. There’s really no other way to say it – this guy cannot hang with any of the top receivers in the game. He’s been pretty close to awful throughout his time with the Commanders and the fact that he’s facing opposing team’s No. 1 guy makes me salivate over the possibilities.

St-Juste got lit up for two touchdowns by Mike Evans in Week 1 and then helped usher in the Malik Nabers Era for the Giants. That’s 188 receiving yards and three touchdowns we can pin on him so far and, unless the Commanders change things up immediately, we’re going to have to take a long look at Ja’Marr Chase and, possibly, Tee Higgins in Week 3. If there’s a get-right game for Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing attack, this is going to be it.

Brock Bowers is a must-play every week.

We never want to get too far ahead of ourselves, especially when talking about rookie tight ends, but Bowers has a role in this Raiders offense that screams “start me” in fantasy. Through two games and against some solid defensive units, Bowers has taken 17 targets and turned them into 15 catches for 156 yards. No touchdowns yet, but those are likely en route.

Bowers has played 68-percent of the offensive snaps and has run routes in 70-percent of those snaps, as opposed to 7.5-percent blocking. That’s Michael Mayer’s job now. As a result, he’s seen the second-highest target-share, just behind Davante Adams and he’s become a strong, reliable target for Gardner Minshew across the middle of the field. Jakobi Meyers is still a decent chain-mover, but he’s not seeing nearly the same number of looks and is on the field for 98-percent of the snaps, so that alone should tell you where the trust is right now.

Fantasy champions know how to handcuff.

I find it so funny, having the same arguments about handcuffing year after year. So many people are so adamant about not doing it, they make their fantasy football lives so much more difficult. Just look at how happy the Christian McCaffrey owners are if they handcuffed him to Jordan Mason. Now look at how miserable the McCaffrey owners are who didn’t. They’re struggling to find help on the waiver wire and they’re being price-gouged by those who stole Mason off the wire or in the draft. Insert a really sad-faced emoji here if you need a visual.

But mind you – not every running back needs to be handcuffed. It’s about investing in the system more than it is about investing in the player. Does the offense feature the running back? Does that running back have the job to himself? If that running back gets hurt, is the next man up able to shoulder the full workload as well? If the answer to all three questions is yes, then you’ve got a proper handcuff situation.

McCaffrey with Mason is the easy example, but we’re seeing more of that now. With Isaiah Pacheco heading to IR, Samaje Perine is going to see the bulk of the work. Even if Carson Steele gets a few short-yardage carries, you know the Chiefs system keeps its lead running back a featured asset. Rachaad White and his tweaked groin should be handcuffed to Bucky Irving. Kyren Williams with his small frame and injury history should be handcuffed to Blake Corum. Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams though maybe Kendre Miller is the right guy when he comes off IR. James Conner and Trey Benson? Yup. Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler? Not so much. Chandler doesn’t handle the lead work between the tackles. You see where I’m going with this? Great. Use it when you make those waiver claims for Week 3.

Five important notes to carry through for your upcoming weeks of research. Don’t ignore them. And don’t think this is it either. We’ve got a long way to go and we’ve got a ton of adjustments to explore once the coaches and coordinators figure out their personnel. But this is a fantastic way to start, so let’s get it!

Bender out.

The Weekly Bender: Your Fantasy Football Informant

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