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TNF Week 1: Ravens-Chiefs Preview, Props, Prediction

Thu Sep 5 12:17pm ET
Field Level Media

The Kansas City Chiefs begin their quest to become the first team since the 1960s to win three consecutive NFL championships when they host the Baltimore Ravens in the season opener on Thursday.

This contest is a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game, which the visiting Chiefs won 17-10.

ODDS AND TRENDS

Kansas City is a consensus 3.0-point favorite, which is essentially the bump they get for playing at Arrowhead Stadium.

The action has been even at BetRivers, where the Chiefs have been backed by 52 percent of the total spread-line money wagered while the Ravens have drawn 52 percent of the total bets. Meanwhile, Kansas City has been supported by 55 and 56 percent of the action, respectively, at BetMGM, causing the line to shift slightly since opening at 2.5 points.

"Bettors are currently split on the Chiefs-Ravens season opener," BetMGM senior trading manager Tristan Davis said. "We expect more action to come in on the Chiefs as kickoff approaches. The sportsbook will want the Ravens to cover."

The Over on 46.5 points at BetRivers has been popular, drawing 67 percent of the money and 66 percent of the tickets. Four of the Ravens' past six Thursday night games have gone over the total point line.

PROP PICKS

--Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-122 at BetRivers): The Ravens' new lead back after eight seasons as the bell cow in Tennessee, Henry makes his Baltimore debut on Thursday night. This is the most wagered-on prop at the book, drawing 5.2 percent of all the money. Henry has scored at least one touchdown in each of his past three regular-season games against the Chiefs.

--Patrick Mahomes Over 268.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM): After a pair of Henry props, this has been the most popular at BetMGM in terms of total bets. The Chiefs quarterback topped this mark eight times last season and while Baltimore is known for its stout defense, the Ravens did lose coordinator Mike Macdonald to Seattle over the offseason.

KEY STATS

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has a streak of 13 consecutive regular-season games in which he has not thrown an interception when Baltimore has been the underdog. He has also rushed for at least 54 yards in four of the past five meetings.

THE NEWS

The Ravens inexplicably ran the ball just 16 times -- eight by Jackson -- for 81 yards in last season's AFC title game despite finishing the regular season with the NFL's top ground attack. The gameplan should be different with the four-time Pro Bowler Henry, who has rushed for 672 yards with eight touchdowns in six career games against Kansas City.

Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta tried to acquire Henry at last season's trade deadline, but the Titans denied him. Henry became the Ravens' top free-agent target, and DeCosta signed him to a two-year, $16 million deal in March.

When asked whether he would have been the difference for the Ravens in last season's playoffs, Henry said this week, "Hell yes. I was wishing I could suit up that day (when I was) watching that game. But, yes, now it's my turn, so (I have) to take advantage of it. It's going to be a hell of a game. The Chiefs are always tough, (and) they're solid on all three (phases), so we've got to be locked in this week to be able to execute on Thursday."

The Chiefs have not shied away from trying to make history this season as they try to become the first team to win a third consecutive Super Bowl. The Ravens are one of their biggest challengers in the AFC, and Kansas City players want to send a message to the rest of the NFL that their team is still the one to beat.

The Chiefs will get an opportunity on Thursday night, shortly after unveiling their Super Bowl LVIII championship banner. Mahomes is expecting another hard-fought matchup.

"The common thing is just physicality and speed. That's who the Ravens are," Mahomes said. "They're a team that's going to play hard. They're going to play physically, and you have to accept that challenge. If you don't, they're going to dominate the football game.

"Even though they've traded through defensive coordinators, they have those same principles. I think that's more of the team (and) the culture they have, and I'm sure there will be wrinkles that we'll have to adjust (to) out there. I mean, they have a great football team (and) a great defense. It's going to be a great challenge for us."

INJURY REPORT

Chiefs wide receiver Marquise "Hollywood" Brown is out with a shoulder injury. Kansas City listed eight others on the injury report, including defensive tackle Chris Jones and offensive lineman Wayna Morris, but all practiced Wednesday and are available for Thursday's game.

Rookie Rasheen Ali, Baltimore's No. 3 running back on the depth chart, missed practice all week and is doubtful with a neck injury. Ravens rookie outside linebacker Adisa Isaac (hamstring) is out.

THEY SAID IT

"Any game I play in, I feel like it's a revenge game. I'm not just going to look at this game like a revenge game. Anybody we play, no matter if we've beaten them or lost to them in previous years, I just want to win." --Jackson, who has lost four of five previous meetings against Mahomes.

PREDICTION

This is a key season-opening litmus test for both teams in a game that could have major home-field advantage implications come playoff time. Expect more scoring than the 27 total points put up in the AFC Championship Game, but the Chiefs are rested, their stars are healthy and Arrowhead will be rocking. --Chiefs 27, Ravens 23

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

Week 1 Fantasy Preview

Player Notes
Tyjae Spears Sep 5 12:50pm CT
Tyjae Spears

Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Nick Holz said during a press conference on Thursday that the team thinks it will be a near 50-50 split in the backfield between running backs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears this year. Holz goes on to say that the Titans have some plays earmarked specifically for Pollard or Spears, but the rest of them are interchangeable. We'll get a better look at Tennessee's new backfield combination on Sunday in Week 1 at Soldier Field against the Chicago Bears, but it sounds as though the Titans feel that Pollard and Spears are interchangeable and are basically co-starters to begin the 2024 season. Pollard failed to impress in a lead-back role in Dallas in 2023, and it doesn't look like he's going to have a leg up on backfield touches over Spears in his first year in Tennessee. To open the regular season, both RBs should be considered more of RB3/flex plays.

From RotoBaller

Matt Gay Sep 5 12:50pm CT
Matt Gay

Indianapolis Colts kicker Matt Gay (hernia) missed his second straight day of practice on Thursday after recently undergoing surgery for a sports hernia. The fact that Gay has yet to practice so far this week is a sign that he's not going to be available to kick in the Week 1 regular-season opener this Sunday against the division-rival Houston Texas, so fantasy managers that were planning on using him as a low-end fantasy kicking option to kick off the year should begin to start searching for a streaming replacement. Rookie Spencer Shrader will most likely be called up from the practice squad later this week if Gay is officially ruled out, but fantasy managers should look to avoid the unproven kicker if he makes his first NFL start against the Texans.

From RotoBaller

Josh Downs Sep 5 12:40pm CT
Josh Downs

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (ankle) said he ran some routes on Wednesday and calls himself "real close" to returning. Downs isn't ruling himself out for Sunday's Week 1 regular-season opener against the division-rival Houston Texans despite suffering a high-ankle sprain in training camp. The 23-year-old didn't practice on Wednesday and wasn't seen on the practice field on Thursday, so he'll need to at least be limited on Friday to have a shot at suiting up this weekend. As of right now, he looks to be on the wrong side of questionable, so fantasy managers in deeper leagues should be looking in another direction if they were planning on using Downs in their starting lineups. If Downs misses the season opener on Sunday, rookie Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce will be more intriguing DFS plays as starting wideouts alongside WR1 Michael Pittman Jr.

From RotoBaller

Haason Reddick Sep 5 12:40pm CT
Haason Reddick

New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh told reporters on Thursday that pass-rusher Haason Reddick has not yet shown up as he continues his contract holdout. Saleh stopped short of ruling Reddick out for the team's Week 1 contest on Monday Night Football against the San Francisco 49ers, but each passing day that he remains absent makes it less likely. The 29-year-old edge rusher still has one year left on his current deal but is seeking a new long-term deal from the Jets after they acquired him from the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason. The former first-rounder by the Arizona Cardinals in 2017 has been a Pro Bowler each of the last two seasons and has had double-digit sacks in each of his last four campaigns. If Reddick eventually reports to the Jets, the talented pass-rusher will make an already strong Jets defense even that much better.

From RotoBaller

Dalton Kincaid Sep 5 12:30pm CT
Dalton Kincaid

Buffalo Bills second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid is one to watch in 2024 as a player that analysts are expecting to emerge as a star playmaker for the team with receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer in town. "If I were trying to pinpoint somebody that I thought was the most talented player in that group, and the guy that did have a chance to become the most important player in that pecking order, he's probably the one that I would go with," The Athletic's Robert Mays said. Kincaid's depth of target increased from six yards to nine yards when offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over in the second half last year. The 24-year-old could be quarterback Josh Allen's most trusted weapon in the passing game now, giving him upside to be a high-end TE1 in fantasy in just his second year in the league in 2024.

From RotoBaller

T.J. Hockenson Sep 5 12:20pm CT
T.J. Hockenson

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler writes that the Minnesota Vikings are loosely targeting a return around Week 7 for injured tight end T.J. Hockenson (knee), who is still recovering from a torn ACL and MCL that he suffered late last year. Hockenson has opened the 2024 season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, as expected, meaning he has to sit out at least the first four games of the season. Fantasy managers expecting Hockenson to be full-go by Week 5 should think again, though. The 27-year-old should be stashed in an IR spot in all fantasy leagues, but it's more likely we won't see him make his season debut until around the midway point, and when he does return, he could be eased back in. Until Hockenson is able to return as the Vikings' top pass-catcher, Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver are expected to share tight-end duties in Minnesota.

From RotoBaller

Justin Herbert Sep 5 12:10pm CT
Justin Herbert

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (foot), who practiced in full on Wednesday, will be added to the Week 1 injury report on Thursday after the Chargers said they were advised to do so by the league. According to the Chargers, nothing has changed since Herbert practiced on Wednesday, other than getting guidance from the NFL. Herbert says he's feeling 100% despite missing several weeks in training camp with a plantar-fascia injury. Even though the 26-year-old is being placed on the injury report, it shouldn't mean much in terms of his health for the Week 1 regular-season opener on Sunday against the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders at Sofi Stadium. The biggest knock on Herbert's fantasy value entering 2024 campaign is that he's in a run-first offense now and lost his favorite weapons from the past several seasons. He'll be a clear QB2 in fantasy in Week 1 against the Raiders.

From RotoBaller

Samaje Perine Sep 5 11:36am CT
Samaje Perine

Kansas City Chiefs running back Samaje Perine is expected to fill the void left behind by Jerick McKinnon's departure, head coach Andy Reid said. Specifically, this means that Perine will primarily get involved as a pass-catcher and blocker. Reid also noted that Perine is an intelligent player who runs well. Last year, the veteran running back tallied 238 rushing yards, 455 receiving yards, and one touchdown. Given that he is a trusted pass-catcher in one of the NFL's best offenses, Perine could sneak into the RB3/FLEX tier in PPR leagues this year. However, he can be left on the bench in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens.

Davante Adams Sep 5 9:33am CT
Davante Adams

Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams denied reports that he wasn't happy. 'If I were (unhappy), I wouldn't be here right now,' Adams said.

Fantasy Spin: He'll be 32 before the end of the season and still had 103 catches last year. He wound up being the WR10 and will have QB questions again this season. He's still a very consistent, safe WR1 option, but his big-game potential is dwindling.

From TheHuddle

Davante Adams Sep 5 8:30am CT
Davante Adams

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams says there is no truth to reports he is not happy in Las Vegas. Former wide receiver DeSean Jackson made the original claim that Adams refuted and according to an ESPN article said he has never spoken to Jackson about his current situation with the Raiders. The 31-year-old receiver out of Fresno State recorded 103 catches for 1,144 yards and eight touchdowns for the Raiders last season. With an unsettled quarterback situation this year, the outlook is a little less rosy for the veteran receiver but Adams is still one of the most talented wide receivers in the league.

From RotoBaller

Malachi Corley Sep 4 11:40pm CT
Malachi Corley

New York Jets wide receiver Malachi Corley could be a healthy scratch against the San Francisco 49ers this week, according to Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic. This would leave the Jets with five active receivers. Rosenblatt notes that Corley, a rookie, would likely need to prove his worth as a returner in order to be active for the season opener. Regardless of whether he dresses or not, Corley is merely a depth piece in New York and can be avoided in all redraft leagues.

From RotoBaller

Mike Williams Sep 4 11:30pm CT
Mike Williams

New York Jets wide receiver Mike Williams (knee) is expected to be on a limited workload when the season begins, according to Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic. Williams is recovering from a torn ACL. He signed with the Jets this offseason, offering a veteran presence in a receiver room that will look to thrive alongside quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The 29-year-old receiver peaked at WR12 in 2021 but hasn't otherwise finished inside the top 30. He'll likely fall outside the top 36 (FLEX range) this year given his ongoing recovery and the expectation that he'll have less volume in New York than he previously did with the Chargers.

From RotoBaller

Allen Lazard Sep 4 11:30pm CT
Allen Lazard

New York Jets wide receiver Allen Lazard is expected to have a larger workload when the regular season begins this week, according to Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic. His additional volume is a direct result of Mike Williams (knee) opening the year on a limited workload. Lazard was quiet in 2023, catching just 23 passes for 311 yards and one touchdown. This year, however, he gets to play alongside Aaron Rodgers and will open the season with some extra volume. These factors won't be enough to put Lazard on the fantasy year, but don't be surprised if you hear his name called more often over these first few weeks of the season.

From RotoBaller

Trenton Simpson Sep 4 11:02pm CT
Trenton Simpson

The Baltimore Ravens defense/special teams draws one of the toughest matchups in the very first game of the year against the Kansas City Chiefs. For the most part, this defense has a lot of the same pieces from last year which saw them as one of the best units in the NFL. Two big losses were the defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald and linebacker Patrick Queen. Former third-round draft pick Trenton Simpson will step into Queen's absence while Zach Orr takes over as the coordinator. Superstar safety Kyle Hamilton looks to build off a tremendous season while the rest of the secondary added some rookies. While fantasy managers should be comfortable playing this team every week, the first game could be a difficult one against Patrick Mahomes and company. With that being said, they should be able to produce enough to be in the top half of defenses.

Marshon Lattimore Sep 4 11:01pm CT
Marshon Lattimore

On the initial Week 1 injury report for the New Orleans Saints, cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hip) was listed as limited due to a lingering hip issue that has persisted since training camp in California. Lattimore's 2023 season was marred by injuries, with an ankle problem restricting him to just ten games and a kidney laceration limiting him to seven games the previous year. These health issues fueled trade speculation during the offseason, but the Saints opted to retain him. He is expected to start on Sunday if he is healthy enough, which would significantly boost the Saints' defense against a Panthers offense projected to struggle. If Lattimore cannot play, it could provide a notable advantage to Bryce Young and the Panthers' receiving corps.

Malik Washington Sep 4 9:10pm CT
Malik Washington

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Malik Washington (quad) was limited in Wednesday's practice. It appears Washington has picked up a minor injury, and it's good news for his Week 1 status that he could participate in a limited fashion. Miami plays their home opener against the in-state Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, and the rookie wideout has an excellent shot to contribute to the Dolphins' offense early on in his career. Both Odell Beckham Jr. (undisclosed) and River Cracraft (upper body) are slated to miss the first four games of the season on the PUP, and Washington will be competing with Braxton Berrios for snaps behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. While Berrios is a competent NFL veteran, the rookie sixth-round pick has displayed his explosiveness during the preseason and has a favorable chance to play his way into a role if he can remain healthy. He's presently a strong stash in dynasty leagues.

From RotoBaller

David Bell Sep 4 9:00pm CT
David Bell

Cleveland Browns wide receiver David Bell (quad) returned to practice in limited fashion on Wednesday. The third-year wideout has been on the shelf since Aug. 10, when he sustained a quadriceps injury against the Green Bay Packers. Left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. also returned to practice. It remains to be seen whether or not Bell will be ready to suit up for the team's home opener against the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday. The Purdue product is listed as a second-string WR on Cleveland's depth chart heading into Week 1 and has totaled just 38 receptions for 381 yards and three touchdowns on 58 targets across his first two seasons. He faces increased competition for those targets in 2024 due to the Browns' acquisition of Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku's strong performance in the latter part of last season. Bell is currently nothing more than a best ball dart throw in his current situation.

From RotoBaller

Austin Ekeler Sep 4 8:53pm CT
Austin Ekeler

Washington Commanders RB Austin Ekeler has caught more than 50 passes in each of the last five seasons, and he has averaged 74.8 receptions per year in that span.

Fantasy Spin: Brian Robinson Jr. will likely handle a lot of the work on early downs, but Ekeler should handle the third-down duties and could be a frequent safety valve for rookie Jayden Daniels. Ekeler is still a flex option, especially in PPR formats.

From TheHuddle

Roschon Johnson Sep 4 8:40pm CT
Roschon Johnson

Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson (toe) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice. A toe injury has plagued the second-year running back -- one he picked up early on in the preseason and hasn't seen any live action since the Hall of Fame game. It would seem he has a decent shot at suiting up for the Bears' regular-season home-opener against the Tennessee Titans due to him at least participating minimally. Johnson is currently slated to open the year as Chicago's third-string RB behind starter D'Andre Swift and backup Khalil Herbert. Even if the former Longhorn can find his way to the field, it would be tough to rely on him for more than groundwork with the loaded wide receiver corps around him. Additionally, rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is not known for his propensity to check it down to his running back. Johnson can be safely left on the waiver wire for the time being sans dynasty and deep leagues.

From RotoBaller

Rachaad White Sep 4 8:30pm CT
Rachaad White

When asked about his running back rotation Wednesday, Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles stated that Rachaad White would be given the first crack at touches in the backfield rotation. "I think it will be a game-by-game basis," said Bowles. "You normally go with the hot hand, but since nobody has played yet, obviously Rachaad [White] starts and then we'll kinda go from there and see how the other guys are used." It's an interesting statement by the Bucs' coach, as he may be hinting at more of a split in Tampa Bay's backfield than initially anticipated. White led all running backs in the NFL in snaps last season (861) and took on a workhorse role in his sophomore year. The third-year RB was one of the better pass-catching weapons out of the backfield in 2023 but did not exhibit nearly the same efficiency as a runner. While it's most likely just a head coach attempting to lessen a player's load, this is a situation to monitor, as White would lose value if backup Bucky Irving were to eat into his workload.

From RotoBaller