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Week 16 TNF: Broncos-Chargers Preview, Props & Prediction

Thu Dec 19 2:26pm ET
Field Level Media

On a season-best four-game winning streak, the Denver Broncos enter a battle for playoff seeding holding the upper hand when they face the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday night in Inglewood, Calif.

The Broncos (9-5) last reached the playoffs in 2015, when they won the Super Bowl behind quarterback Peyton Manning. Rookie QB Bo Nix has brought hopes of a brighter future, guiding Denver from a middling 5-5 start to the cusp of a double-digit wins for the first time since the Manning days.

There is even an outside chance the Broncos could clinch a playoff spot this week. If Denver wins or ties on Thursday, and the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts follow with losses or ties over the weekend, the Broncos would be playoff bound.

Denver currently holds the No. 6 playoff seed in the AFC, while the Chargers (8-6) have dropped to No. 7.

The No. 7 seed could be facing a wild-card round matchup against the Buffalo Bills, while the No. 6 seed likely will meet the champion of the AFC North, where the Pittsburgh Steelers hold a one-game lead on the Baltimore Ravens.

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Chargers are a consensus 2.5-point favorite at home. The line opened at 3.0 at BetMGM, where the spread-line money has been evenly split while the Broncos have a slight edge with 51 percent of the total bets backing them.

The moneyline action has been interesting. While the Broncos have been backed by 75 percent of the total bets at +120, it's the Chargers who have drawn 56 percent of the money at -145.

The total points line has shifted down from 42.5 to 41.5, with the Over heavily supported with 63 percent of the bets and 72 percent of the money.

PROP PICKS

--Bo Nix Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings): While Nix is mobile, he is not a dual-threat quarterback in the traditional sense of the term. He did rush for 23 yards last week after not scrambling for more than 5 in any of the previous four games. However, he did rack up 61 yards on the ground in the first meeting, contributing to this being the most popular prop bet at the book for this game.

--Kimani Vidal Over 1.5 Receptions (-175 at BetMGM): Bettors are banking on Vidal's increased involvement in the passing game, making this the second most bet-on prop at the book. That "increased involvement" entails last week specifically, when Vital caught two of three targets for a mere 13 yards. But with Gus Edwards' spotty production, Vidal was in on a season-high 67 percent of the offensive snaps last Sunday.

THE NEWS

While Nix threw three touchdown passes in a 31-13 home victory over the Colts on Sunday, he also had a career-high three interceptions.

"I thought I saw the game well, (but) I have to keep from turning the ball over," Nix said.

Nix and the Broncos could have fashioned a four-game winning streak earlier this season, but the Chargers came into Denver and earned a 23-16 victory in Week 6.

Nix threw two fourth-quarter touchdown passes in that game and wound up with 216 yards in the air. Even so, he lost the duel against Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who threw for a touchdown and had 237 yards passing.

On Sunday against the Colts, Nix had just 130 passing yards, but Denver cashed in another strong defensive performance by putting up 24 second-half points, including 21 in the fourth quarter.

"Later in that game, when we needed it, man, there's a maturity and a moxie about him, which I love," Broncos coach Sean Payton said of Nix. "I think it's contagious to the team. When you have that at the quarterback position, your team knows that you're in every game."

If there was a moment when the Broncos gained their footing this season, it might have been in the second half against the Chargers. Trailing 23-0, Denver scored 16 fourth-quarter points while blanking Los Angeles to charge back and make it a game.

Since then, the Broncos have gone 6-2 to bypass the Chargers in the AFC West.

The Chargers have lost consecutive games and three of the past four after falling 40-17 at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. More than just the Los Angeles defense struggled, with the offense gaining only 32 rushing yards and Herbert throwing an interception for the first time in 12 games.

Not only did the Chargers give up the most points they have allowed this season, but they also yielded a season-high 506 yards, including a season-high 223 yards on the ground.

The Chargers still have a two-game lead on their closest wild-card pursuer with three games to play, so their situation is not dire. They also would clinch a playoff spot under a nearly identical scenario to the Broncos, with games still remaining against the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders, who have five combined wins.

INJURY REPORT

Herbert (sprained ankle) was limited at practice Tuesday but is expected to play. Los Angeles tight end Will Dissly (shoulder), guard Zion Johnson (ankle), defensive lineman Otito Ogbonnia (pelvis) and defensive backs Cam Hart (concussion) and Elijah Molden (knee) did not practice on Tuesday.

The only Broncos player to miss practice on Tuesday was defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers (foot).

THEY SAID IT

"It's just up to us as an offense and us as a team to go out and execute and play the way we need to. Obviously, they're all important games in December and January. This is where we want to be." --Herbert

PREDICTION

While both teams are in excellent position to reach the playoffs, there is plenty on the line Thursday night in terms of seeding and potential playoff opponents. If Nix can avoid multiple turnovers, the Broncos are trending in the right direction and Denver's strong defense will be taking aim at a gimpy Herbert. --Broncos 26, Chargers 23

Week 16 TNF: Broncos-Chargers Preview, Props & Prediction

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