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Ravens vs. Commanders: Betting Trends, Prop Picks, Prediction

Sun Oct 13 5:29am ET
Field Level Media

When the NFL schedule came out back in May, several games were circled and considered "must-see" matchups, but the Washington Commanders going on the road to play the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6 was not one of them.

However, with how things have played out for both teams through the first five weeks of the season, the battle between Baltimore (3-2) and Washington (4-1) has suddenly become the one game fans don't want to miss. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP-caliber level, and the same could be said for Commanders rookie signal-caller Jayden Daniels.

Yes, a rookie has entered the MVP conversation. Whether he's still in it Monday morning could depend on the outcome of Sunday's game.

ODDS AND TRENDS

It was expected that the Ravens would establish themselves as Super Bowl contenders, but few saw Washington emerging as one of the best teams in the NFC. Bettors have been happy to get behind the Commanders, with 64 percent of the handle and 71 percent of the bets backing Washington +7 (-112) over at DraftKings.

As for moneyline tickets, DraftKings has seen 67 percent of the bets on Baltimore's moneyline (-325), but 68 percent of the handle is on Washington's (+260).

Bettors are expecting a shootout between the league's highest-scoring teams -- the Commanders rank first with 31.0 points per game while the Ravens are in second with 29.4. DraftKings has seen 68 percent of the wagers and 80 percent of the handle on the over (-110), with the total set at 51.5 points.

So, should bettors jump on the bandwagon and put money on the Commanders? Well, the public was just 5-7 against the spread last week and is 29-42-3 for the season, according to Sports Betting Dime. Week 4 is the only week where the public had a winning record, 8-7-1.

PROP PICKS

--Jayden Daniels, O/U 225.5 passing yards at -130/+100

Daniels has gone over this mark in each of his past four games, but he's averaged 237.8 yards during that span, which does not leave much room for error. While the Ravens' pass defense is one of the worst in the league (280.2 passing yards allowed per game), that stat is misleading because opponents have frequently had to throw to keep up.

Considering it might be hard for the Commanders to establish the ground game against a Baltimore team with the stiffest run defense in the NFL (60.4 rushing yards allowed per game), Daniels is going to have to move the ball through the air, making us lean toward the over.

--Derrick Henry, O/U 87.5 yards rushing at -120/-110

Look for the Ravens to use the run to open up the passing game, meaning a heavy dose of Henry early and often.

Henry has rushed for at least 92 yards in each of his past three games, a stretch that includes a pair of 100-yard showings on the ground. Take the over here.

KEY STAT

When favored by over three points in the regular season, Jackson is just 21-31 ATS. When the spread is three points or less in favor of Baltimore or has the Ravens as underdogs, Jackson has gone 25-5 ATS.

THE NEWS

All eyes will be on the talent under center when the Commanders and Ravens collide, and it's not hard to understand why.

Jackson is the reigning MVP and is playing like someone who is intent on being a back-to-back winner. Daniels has been one of the most efficient and exciting players in the NFL this season -- and he's just a rookie! His game has been so impressive that he currently has the fifth-best odds at DraftKings to win MVP (+1000).

Both are playing at a high and comparable level:

--Jackson is averaging 241.2 passing yards per game (Daniels 227.0)

--Jackson is averaging 72.6 rushing yards per game (Daniels 60.0)

--Jackson has a 107.3 passer rating (Daniels 106.3)

--Daniels has completed 77.1 percent of his passes (Jackson 65.3)

--Daniels has a 73.2 QBR (Jackson 67.1)

With the two quarterbacks playing so well, something else will have to factor into the game's outcome, barring either player making an uncharacteristic mistake. As crucial as the running game has been for both teams, you must look at the running backs.

Baltimore has a resurgent Henry leading the way, while Washington will be without its top running back, Brian Robinson Jr. (knee) -- both former Alabama stars.

Outside of the offensive playmakers, there's also still a lot to learn about each team's defense. From a statistical perspective, it is hard to say who has the advantage and just how good (or bad) either unit is. Yes, the Ravens' defense ranks second-to-last in passing, but is that because of a weak secondary or because teams can't run against them?

Similar questions can be asked about the Commanders, but not to the same extent (No. 12 against the pass, No. 21 against the run).

INJURY REPORT

In addition to being without Robinson, Washington won't have safety Tyler Owens because of a shin injury.

The Ravens have five players listed as questionable, a group that includes cornerback Marlon Humphrey (ankle), offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley (toe) and guard Sala Aumavae-Laulu (back).

PREDICTION

This game will go one of two ways: the Baltimore offense will bulldoze the Commanders' defense and the Ravens will win comfortably, or Washington's offense will keep the Ravens' defense off-balance and own time of possession. We think the visitors keep it close and give themselves a chance to win.

Ravens 28, Commanders 23

--Travis Pulver, Field Level Media

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The Paur Report

Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 6

Player Notes
Ray Davis Oct 13 8:00am CT
Ray Davis

Buffalo Bills running back Ray Davis has emerged as a potential fantasy football option for Week 6 in the event that teammate James Cook (toe) isn't able to play on Monday night against the New York Jets. Cook missed practice on Thursday and Friday, returned in a limited capacity on Saturday, and is officially listed as questionable to play in the upcoming divisional game on national television. While recent reports suggest that Cook is expected to play on Monday, this remains a situation worth monitoring given that he missed two practices and was still limited in the third. In the event that Cook can't play, we'd see a much larger workload for rookie Ray Davis, who has been off to a relatively quiet start this season. In that scenario, Davis would rank as a high-end fantasy RB3 against a Jets defense that has played solid against running backs this year.

From RotoBaller

Haason Reddick Oct 13 7:30am CT
Haason Reddick

New York Jets pass rusher Haason Reddick, who continues to hold out amidst demands for a new contract, reportedly had an offer on the table for a lucrative one-year deal "that would have given him the opportunity to make up for the fines and make more money than he was originally scheduled to earn," according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The deal, proposed early during the regular season, was "all but worked out" between the Jets and Reddick's agents at CAA, but the veteran defender declined to sign the contract. This appeared to be the final straw for both the team and the agency. The Jets have since been very public about their stance, essentially saying that the ball is in Reddick's court and he can come back whenever he's ready. Meanwhile, CAA parted with Reddick as a client this past week, seemingly frustrated by his resistance to a new deal and his willingness to rack up fines from missing games. At this point, there is real doubt about the likelihood that Reddick, who wants a multi-year deal that would make him one of the higher-paid pass rushers in the NFL, returns to the football field this season. As Rapoport notes, if he holds out beyond Week 13, he would not accrue a season, his 2024 contract terms would roll over to 2025, and we could see this entire saga repeat itself next year.

From RotoBaller

Marlon Humphrey Oct 13 7:23am CT
Marlon Humphrey

Baltimore Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey (ankle) is expected to play in Week 6's game against the Washington Commanders, according to a source. He had been listed as questionable on the injury report after participating in two of the team's three practice sessions during the week on a limited basis.

From TheHuddle

Matt Prater Oct 13 7:23am CT
Matt Prater

Arizona Cardinals PK Matt Prater (knee) is not expected to play in Week 6's game against the Green Bay Packers, according to a source. He had been listed as questionable on the injury report after being a limited participant in all three of the team's practice sessions during the week.

Fantasy Spin: The Cardinals elevated PK Chad Ryland from the practice squad Saturday, Oct. 12, but fantasy owners should be able to find more reliable options for their lineups on the waiver wire.

From TheHuddle

Matt Prater Oct 13 7:20am CT
Matt Prater

Arizona Cardinals kicker Matt Prater (knee) is expected to be inactive for Week 6 against the Green Bay Packers, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. If confirmed, it will be the veteran kicker's second consecutive absence. He had been perfect through four games, converting all 10 of his extra point attempts and all six of his field goal tries. The Cardinals have once again elevated Chad Ryland to kick in Prater's place. In his season debut last week, Ryland went 3-for-4 on field goals and also made his lone extra point attempt.

From RotoBaller

Evan Engram Oct 13 7:13am CT
Evan Engram

Jacksonville Jaguars TE Evan Engram (hamstring) is active for Week 6's game against the Chicago Bears.

Fantasy Spin: This will be Engram's first game action since the first week of the regular season. He had been listed as questionable on the injury report after being a limited practice participant throughout the week. He can be viewed as a starting option in all fantasy leagues.

From TheHuddle

Evan Engram Oct 13 7:10am CT
Evan Engram

Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram (hamstring) is officially active for Sunday morning's game against the Chicago Bears in London. The veteran tight end, who had been listed as questionable after logging three limited practices, returns to game action for the first time since Week 1. In the season opener, he was held to just one catch on four targets. However, Jacksonville has done a better job of incorporating its tight ends lately, relying on Brenton Strange for nine catches, 55 yards, and two touchdowns over the last three weeks. Engram is an effective playmaker who ranks among the top 12 tight ends for this week in fantasy football.

From RotoBaller

Gabriel Davis Oct 13 7:10am CT
Gabriel Davis

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) is officially active for Week 6 against the Chicago Bears in London. Davis had been listed as questionable after logging three consecutive limited practices, but in the end, he'll avoid his first absence of the 2024 season. Through five games this year, Davis has caught 12 of 25 targets for just 159 yards through the air. Despite handling a heavy snap share, he has seen reduced opportunities in Jacksonville's offense, including over the last three weeks. He can be kept out of lineups fantasy lineups once again in Week 6, especially now that Evan Engram (hamstring) is back and set to command significant volume.

From RotoBaller

Jeremiah Ledbetter Oct 13 7:03am CT
Jeremiah Ledbetter

The Jacksonville Jaguars have declared OG Cole Van Lanen, OT Javon Foster, DE Jeremiah Ledbetter, DE Tyler Lacy and LB Myles Cole inactive for Week 6.

From TheHuddle

Daniel Carlson Oct 13 4:40am CT
Daniel Carlson

Las Vegas Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson will have to hope for his team to get drives into his field-goal range when they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6, though that could be wishful thinking. The Steelers have allowed the fourth-least fantasy points per game to opposing kickers this season, mainly due to their strong defense. The Las Vegas offense does not match up well with any good defense, so we could see another game in which Carlson has too few kick opportunities to be fantasy-relevant. He's made 8/10 of his field goals and is a perfect eight-for-eight on extra points, but that's not been enough volume to make him worth starting in fantasy leagues. He should remain on waivers as he is the 27th-ranked kicker in RotoBaller's Week 6 fantasy football rankings.

From RotoBaller

Gabriel Davis Oct 13 2:40am CT
Gabriel Davis

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) is likely to suit up for Sunday's overseas matchup with the Chicago Bears. The wideout has battled various ailments over the last few weeks. However, a knee injury forced him to practice in a limited capacity throughout the week. With that in mind, Davis hasn't had more than three catches in a game this season. He also hasn't scored a touchdown. With Evan Engram (hamstring) also expected to play in London, Davis' chances of staying involved consistently during the contest aren't favorable. Fantasy managers should keep him out of the starting lineup, assuming he officially gets the green light to get on the field.

From RotoBaller

Anthony Richardson Oct 13 2:30am CT
Anthony Richardson

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (oblique) continues to trend toward returning for Sunday's meeting with the Tennessee Titans. He's currently listed as questionable. However, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, the signal-caller should play if he has a "solid pre-game workout." Despite entering the 2024-25 campaign with plenty of hype, Richardson hasn't delivered, throwing for 654 yards, three touchdowns, and six picks while completing just 50.6% of his throws. As a result, he's a risky fantasy option no matter the opponent, although his outlook will improve slightly if Michael Pittman Jr. (back) and Josh Downs (toe) suit up in Week 6. Fortunately, both players are expected to get on the field.

From RotoBaller

Zamir White Oct 13 2:20am CT
Zamir White

According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White (groin) is "considered a long-shot to play" in Sunday's game against the Steelers. The 25-year-old missed a few practices during the week, although he was on the field in a limited capacity on Friday. However, it appears he'll miss his second straight game, so his next chance to suit up will be for the Week 7 meeting with the Los Angeles Rams. Without White in the equation, Alexander Mattison should handle most of the carries out of the backfield, with Ameer Abdullah picking up some of the slack as his backup. But no matter who is atop the depth chart at the position, they are expected to have a challenging day against one of the most efficient run-stop units in the National Football League, something for fantasy managers to consider before setting their lineups.

From RotoBaller

Audric Estime Oct 12 11:30pm CT
Audric Estime

Denver Broncos running back Audric Estime (ankle) was activated from the IR heading into Sunday's divisional clash with the Chargers. The 21-year-old rookie made his only appearance of the 2024-25 campaign in Week 1 versus Seattle. Estime had only two carries for 14 yards in that one. He also injured his ankle, putting him on the shelf. With that in mind, Estime's fantasy potential is severely limited in Week 6, assuming he sheds his questionable designation, considering Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin are the top options out of the backfield. However, the Broncos offense has struggled this season, so anyone on that side of the ball is hard to trust.

From RotoBaller

Chad Ryland Oct 12 11:20pm CT
Chad Ryland

The Arizona Cardinals elevated kicker Chad Ryland from the practice squad heading into the Week 6 meeting with the Packers. With Matt Prater (knee) questionable, the team may look to Ryland to handle the kicking duties. He looked good in Week 5 against the 49ers, making three of his four field goal attempts, one of which secured the win for the Cardinals. However, with rain and wind in the forecast in Green Bay, fantasy managers in need of a kicker may want to look elsewhere.

From RotoBaller

Davante Adams Oct 12 11:10pm CT
Davante Adams

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) "could wind up staying" with the team. Schefter didn't elaborate. However, it adds another dynamic to what has already been a volatile situation. The wideout will miss another game on Sunday due to a hamstring injury, with many still believing his days with the Raiders are over. But at this point, fantasy managers aren't as concerned with who he is playing for as long as he gets back on the field. As far as the Week 6 meeting with the Steelers is concerned, Jakobi Meyers (ankle) is doubtful, so it could be a rough day for Aidan O'Connell. Still, the door is open for Tre Tucker and DJ Turner, who both logged over 50 snaps in Week 5, to get more involved. Alex Bachman and Tyreik McAllister may also enter the equation, although Brock Bowers still has the best chance of being the top fantasy pass-catcher for Vegas in Week 6.

From RotoBaller

Evan Engram Oct 12 10:43pm CT
Evan Engram

Jacksonville Jaguars TE Evan Engram (hamstring), who was listed as questionable, is expected to play against the Chicago Bears in Week 6, according to a source.

Fantasy Spin: Engram has been sidelined since the opener, but he was a steady option for Trevor Lawrence last year. Unless you have found a reliable replacement over the last few weeks, Engram should be inserted back into starting lineups.

From TheHuddle

Jauan Jennings Oct 12 9:41pm CT
Jauan Jennings

Dynasty | 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings had just three catches for 27 yards in a win against Seattle Thursday night. Dynasty Analysis: Much like his teammate Brandon Aiyuk, Jennings has had one blow-up game (11/175/3) and four clunkers that have resulted in just 14 catches for 229 scoreless yards. Jennings is looking like a boom or bust player each week and dynasty managers are going to need to feel pretty desperate to trust him on a weekly basis at this point.

Kenneth Walker III Oct 12 9:41pm CT
Kenneth Walker III

Dynasty | Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker had 32 rushing yards, eight catches and 37 receiving yards with one touchdown in a loss against the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: The yardage totals for Walker weren't good but eight catches and a touchdown made his night a good one, at least in PPR leagues. Even better, Walker continued to dominate backfield touches as he had 22 compared to the six from Zach Charbonnet. Walker is a prime trade target for a contending dynasty team as he's become one of the more consistent running backs in the game.

D.K. Metcalf Oct 12 9:39pm CT
D.K. Metcalf

Dynasty | Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf had three catches for 48 yards in a loss against the 49ers on Thursday night. Dynasty Analysis: Metcalf had 11 targets, but he and Geno Smith are just not on the same page. After three straight 100-yard games, Metcalf now has just seven catches for 103 scoreless yards over his last two games. He did have a long touchdown called back because of a penalty, but things seem to be going sour for Seattle in a hurry as they've lost three straight and seem to be losing their way a bit. Metcalf will likely bounce back but this is notable in future weeks as lineup decisions are being made.