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TNF Week 1: Ravens-Chiefs Preview, Props, Prediction

Thu Sep 5 12:17pm ET
Field Level Media

The Kansas City Chiefs begin their quest to become the first team since the 1960s to win three consecutive NFL championships when they host the Baltimore Ravens in the season opener on Thursday.

This contest is a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game, which the visiting Chiefs won 17-10.

ODDS AND TRENDS

Kansas City is a consensus 3.0-point favorite, which is essentially the bump they get for playing at Arrowhead Stadium.

The action has been even at BetRivers, where the Chiefs have been backed by 52 percent of the total spread-line money wagered while the Ravens have drawn 52 percent of the total bets. Meanwhile, Kansas City has been supported by 55 and 56 percent of the action, respectively, at BetMGM, causing the line to shift slightly since opening at 2.5 points.

"Bettors are currently split on the Chiefs-Ravens season opener," BetMGM senior trading manager Tristan Davis said. "We expect more action to come in on the Chiefs as kickoff approaches. The sportsbook will want the Ravens to cover."

The Over on 46.5 points at BetRivers has been popular, drawing 67 percent of the money and 66 percent of the tickets. Four of the Ravens' past six Thursday night games have gone over the total point line.

PROP PICKS

--Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-122 at BetRivers): The Ravens' new lead back after eight seasons as the bell cow in Tennessee, Henry makes his Baltimore debut on Thursday night. This is the most wagered-on prop at the book, drawing 5.2 percent of all the money. Henry has scored at least one touchdown in each of his past three regular-season games against the Chiefs.

--Patrick Mahomes Over 268.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM): After a pair of Henry props, this has been the most popular at BetMGM in terms of total bets. The Chiefs quarterback topped this mark eight times last season and while Baltimore is known for its stout defense, the Ravens did lose coordinator Mike Macdonald to Seattle over the offseason.

KEY STATS

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has a streak of 13 consecutive regular-season games in which he has not thrown an interception when Baltimore has been the underdog. He has also rushed for at least 54 yards in four of the past five meetings.

THE NEWS

The Ravens inexplicably ran the ball just 16 times -- eight by Jackson -- for 81 yards in last season's AFC title game despite finishing the regular season with the NFL's top ground attack. The gameplan should be different with the four-time Pro Bowler Henry, who has rushed for 672 yards with eight touchdowns in six career games against Kansas City.

Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta tried to acquire Henry at last season's trade deadline, but the Titans denied him. Henry became the Ravens' top free-agent target, and DeCosta signed him to a two-year, $16 million deal in March.

When asked whether he would have been the difference for the Ravens in last season's playoffs, Henry said this week, "Hell yes. I was wishing I could suit up that day (when I was) watching that game. But, yes, now it's my turn, so (I have) to take advantage of it. It's going to be a hell of a game. The Chiefs are always tough, (and) they're solid on all three (phases), so we've got to be locked in this week to be able to execute on Thursday."

The Chiefs have not shied away from trying to make history this season as they try to become the first team to win a third consecutive Super Bowl. The Ravens are one of their biggest challengers in the AFC, and Kansas City players want to send a message to the rest of the NFL that their team is still the one to beat.

The Chiefs will get an opportunity on Thursday night, shortly after unveiling their Super Bowl LVIII championship banner. Mahomes is expecting another hard-fought matchup.

"The common thing is just physicality and speed. That's who the Ravens are," Mahomes said. "They're a team that's going to play hard. They're going to play physically, and you have to accept that challenge. If you don't, they're going to dominate the football game.

"Even though they've traded through defensive coordinators, they have those same principles. I think that's more of the team (and) the culture they have, and I'm sure there will be wrinkles that we'll have to adjust (to) out there. I mean, they have a great football team (and) a great defense. It's going to be a great challenge for us."

INJURY REPORT

Chiefs wide receiver Marquise "Hollywood" Brown is out with a shoulder injury. Kansas City listed eight others on the injury report, including defensive tackle Chris Jones and offensive lineman Wayna Morris, but all practiced Wednesday and are available for Thursday's game.

Rookie Rasheen Ali, Baltimore's No. 3 running back on the depth chart, missed practice all week and is doubtful with a neck injury. Ravens rookie outside linebacker Adisa Isaac (hamstring) is out.

THEY SAID IT

"Any game I play in, I feel like it's a revenge game. I'm not just going to look at this game like a revenge game. Anybody we play, no matter if we've beaten them or lost to them in previous years, I just want to win." --Jackson, who has lost four of five previous meetings against Mahomes.

PREDICTION

This is a key season-opening litmus test for both teams in a game that could have major home-field advantage implications come playoff time. Expect more scoring than the 27 total points put up in the AFC Championship Game, but the Chiefs are rested, their stars are healthy and Arrowhead will be rocking. --Chiefs 27, Ravens 23

TNF Week 1: Ravens-Chiefs Preview, Props, Prediction

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