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Week 7 TNF: Broncos-Saints Preview, Props, Prediction

Thu Oct 17 4:02pm ET
Field Level Media

Week 7 of the NFL regular season kicks off with Sean Payton's highly-anticipated return to New Orleans, where he coached the Saints to nine playoff appearances and the franchise's lone Super Bowl title during his 15-year tenure.

Payton is now in his second season at the helm of the Denver Broncos, and admitted Thursday night will be a "unique" experience for him.

Both teams are coming off losses. The Broncos (3-3) lost to the visiting Los Angeles Chargers 23-16 last Sunday, ending a three-game winning streak. The Saints (2-4) fell to the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 51-27, their fourth consecutive loss under Dennis Allen, Payton's former defensive coordinator who was promoted when Payton resigned after the 2021 season.

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Broncos are consensus 2.5-point favorites. That includes at BetMGM, where the line opened at 1.0 points but shifted significantly with Denver backed by 66 percent of the spread-line bets and 79 percent of the money.

The action has been split on the moneyline. The Broncos (-145) have been backed by 63 percent of the money, while the Saints (+120) have been backed by 57 percent of the total bets.

Oddsmakers are understandably expecting a low-scoring game between two rookie quarterbacks. The 37.0-point Over/Under has seen the total bets evenly split, while the Under has drawn 59 percent of the money.

PROP PICKS

--Courtland Sutton Over 3.5 Receptions (-135 at DraftKings): This has been the most popular player prop at the sportsbook. Sutton has averaged 7.8 targets but only 3.5 receptions per game. He's coming off a four-catch game against the Chargers and has scored in two of Denver's past three games.

--Alvin Kamara Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM): The book reported 99 percent of all bets on this prop have backed the over, and for good reason. He should serve as a security blanked for rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler, who targeted Kamara eight times last week, although it produced only 24 yards on five receptions. That snapped a four-game streak of Kamara hauling in at least 40 yards worth of receptions.

THE NEWS

Payton is in his second season with the Broncos, who finished 8-9 last season, and he's trying to show that he can adapt the offense within which Brees thrived to fit rookie No. 1 draft choice Bo Nix. But Nix has the 34th-highest passer rating (73.7) and is 23rd in total yards (1,082) in the NFL.

Most of Denver's success so far has been because of its defense, which is ranked fourth in points per game (16) and yards per game (284.3).

Allen's defense, meanwhile, has slipped to last in average yards (395.8) and 23rd in points allowed (24.5).

"(Payton) does a really good job with the offense -- a lot of different personnel groups, a lot of different formations," Saints coach Dennis Allen said of his former boss. "And he does a really good job of identifying areas of weakness that he wants to try to attack."

The Saints are less concerned about who's coaching the opponent than they are about trying to end their losing streak as they complete a stretch of three games in 11 days.

"He's going to be fired up," New Orleans defensive end Cam Jordan said. "Everybody in this building knows who Sean Payton is, and if he sees blood in the water, he's going to try and take advantage. We're not helping to deter that at this point."

Rattler, who was drafted in the fifth round, will make his second consecutive start in place of injured quarterback Derek Carr.

Rattler was good enough to rally his team from an early 17-0 deficit to a 27-24 halftime lead last week, but not good enough to prevent it from being shut out in the second half.

INJURY REPORT

The Saints have ruled out wide receivers Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee), guard Cesar Ruiz (knee) and linebacker Pete Werner (hamstring) after they did not participate in practice all week. Shaheed will require meniscus surgery. Quarterback Derek Carr (oblique) is listed as doubtful but did not practice all week and is not expected to be available.

One Denver starter, cornerback Pat Surtain II, is in the league's concussion protocol and has been ruled out after missing practice all week. Offensive tackle Alex Palczewski (ankle), who was a limited participant earlier the week before sitting out on Wednesday, also won't play.

THEY SAID IT

Regardless of the teams' records, this game was always going to be primarily about Payton's return to New Orleans, where he arrived in 2006 as a well-regarded offensive assistant but untested head coach as the city was recovering from Hurricane Katrina.

"It will be unique," Payton said. "Certainly, there will be emotions going back there, but I do think that comes up quite a bit in our league with players and, in this case, certainly the amount of time I was there."

Payton said he understands that the Saints fans probably won't have "a lot of flowers and warm fuzzies for yours truly," which they certainly will have at halftime when former quarterback Drew Brees is recognized for his induction into the Saints Hall of Fame earlier in the day.

Brees signed with the Saints as a free agent shortly after Payton was hired and went on to become one of the most prolific passers in NFL history before retiring a year before Payton resigned.

PREDICTION

Rattler will be making just his second career start, and doing so minus the Saints' top two wideouts. Even at home, that is too tall of an ask against a solid Denver defense. Remember, New Orleans started out competitive against Tampa Bay on Sunday before ultimately giving up 51 points. --Broncos 23, Saints 16

Week 7 TNF: Broncos-Saints Preview, Props, Prediction

The Paur Report