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Week 12 TNF: Steelers-Browns Preview, Props & Prediction

Thu Nov 21 5:18pm ET
Field Level Media

The Pittsburgh Steelers take on what is typically an unenviable task -- traveling on a short week for a Thursday night primetime game.

However, a few things are playing in Pittsburgh's favor as Week 12 of the NFL regular season kicks off. Namely, the "trip" to Cleveland is a little more than two hours by road and when the Steelers arrive there, they'll be facing a backup quarterback at the helm of a massively underwhelming 2-8 Browns team.

The Steelers (8-2) are coming off a huge win over Baltimore to stay atop the AFC North. And Pittsburgh is beginning to set its sights on potential home-field advantage come playoff time.

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Steelers are a consensus 3.5-point favorite. That includes at BetRivers, where they have been backed by 80 percent of the spread-line money. Pittsburgh's -195 moneyline to simply win the game has been even more popular, drawing 95 percent of all money wagered.

The Browns enter Thursday night having failed to cover the spread in nine of their past 12 games. Meanwhile, the Steelers have covered the spread in every game during their five-game win streak.

The 37.0 total points line has seen the Over backed by 65 percent of the money and 70 percent of the total bets. Each of Cleveland's past eight November home games has gone under the total points line.

PROP PICKS

--Steelers WR George Pickens Over 50 Receiving Yards (-195 at DraftKings): Russell Wilson has thrown six touchdowns in the four games since he took over as the starting quarterback. Two of those have gone to Pickens, who has at least 74 receiving yards in each of those games. There is some concern that Pittsburgh gains a big early lead and turns to a run-heavy attack, but Wilson throws an excellent deep ball and that plays into Pickens' strength. This is the most popular player prop at the book.

--Steelers RB Najee Harris Anytime TD (+100 at BetRivers): That potential for a run-heavy approach should benefit Harris, who found the sledding tough against Baltimore with 63 yards on the ground. He was also held out of the end zone for the second time in three games. Keep in mind that Cleveland has allowed only three touchdowns on the ground all season, but the Browns have allowed 12 through the air. Harris has a trio of scores on the ground and receiving through 10 games.

KEY STAT

The Browns have won the first quarter in five consecutive home games against the Steelers.

THE NEWS

The Steelers have certainly been locked in. They are currently riding a five-game winning streak, most recently edging the Baltimore Ravens 18-16 on Sunday.

Chris Boswell booted six field goals against Baltimore, while Wilson completed 23 of 36 passes for 205 yards and an interception.

Meanwhile, Cleveland continues to go through the wringer. The Browns ended up on the wrong end of a 35-14 blowout while facing the host New Orleans Saints on Sunday, marking their seventh loss in the past eight games.

Cleveland now has to go up against one of the most unforgiving defenses in the league. Browns quarterback Jameis Winston is determined to direct a fundamentally sound performance against Pittsburgh, which allows the second-fewest points per game in the NFL (16.2).

"It's precision passing. Getting the ball out on time. Elite operation and just doing our job. It's the simple things," Winston said. "This team (the Steelers) is not going to try and fool you. They're going to line up and say, 'Give us your best, we're going to give you our best.'"

Winston threw for 395 yards and two touchdowns on 30-for-46 passing in the setback against New Orleans, with Jerry Jeudy hauling in six catches for 142 yards and a score. Star running back Nick Chubb continued to struggle since his return from a knee injury that cut his 2023 season short, finishing with 50 yards on 11 carries.

INJURY REPORT

The Browns could be without standout defensive end Myles Garrett, who missed practice on Tuesday because of a hip injury. Wide receiver Elijah Moore (shoulder), guard Joel Bitonio (pectoral) and cornerbacks Denzel Ward (ribs/ankle) and Greg Newsome II (shoulder) were among those limited during the session.

Linebacker Alex Highsmith is dealing with an ankle issue and was ruled out by the Steelers along with cornerback Cory Trice Jr. (hamstring).

THEY SAID IT

Wilson is starting to feel like he might be part of something special, but he also doesn't want Pittsburgh to get ahead of itself.

"I definitely think that we have a chance (to make a deep playoff run)," said Wilson, who has played in two Super Bowls. "I think the biggest thing for us is continuing to just take each week as the most important week of it all.

"I think that it's not really even just the week, it's just the day, it's just the moments in between. I think the greatest teams, the greatest players, in any sport, especially the teams I've been on, is the moment -- it's never too far away. It's right here, right now. And you're just locked into that."

PREDICTION

Divisional road games on short weeks typically shape up as a daunting task. That's not the case for the Steelers, who will be hyper-focused to put this one out of reach early before enjoying 10 days ahead of a trip to Cleveland. With a second game against the Browns before a huge game at Philadelphia, this is not an under-manned opponent Pittsburgh will look past. --Steelers 27, Browns 19

Week 12 TNF: Steelers-Browns Preview, Props & Prediction

The Paur Report