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Week 4 MNF: Seahawks-Lions Preview, Props, Prediction

Mon Sep 30 2:13pm ET
Field Level Media

The Detroit Lions haven't moved to the NFC West; their early season schedule just makes it seem that way.

Detroit (2-1) edged the Los Angeles Rams in overtime in its opener. The Lions topped Arizona 20-13 in their first road test last weekend.

They'll now host undefeated Seattle on Monday night, with the 3-0 Seahawks' coaching staff led by Mike Macdonald.

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Lions are 4.5-point favorites at most books, although the line has held steady at 4.5 at BetMGM with the public backing the Seahawks with 68 percent of the spread-line bets and 73 percent of the money.

The moneyline action has been split, with Seattle (+180) backed by 51 percent of the total bets, while Detroit (-225) has drawn 64 percent of the money wagered.

The Over has been one of the more lopsided plays at BetMGM, attracting 68 percent of the bets and 73 percent of the money with the points total shifting from 48.5 to 46.4.

PROP PICKS

--Jahmyr Gibbs 60+ Rushing Yards (+140 at DraftKings): This has been the most popular player prop for this game at the book. Gibbs enters with 207 rushing yards through three games, including 84 and 83 in his past two games. While Seattle enters Monday with the league's top-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed per game (248.7), that has been generated against three sub-par quarterbacks. Opponents are averaging 116.3 yards per game on the ground.

--DK Metcalf Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM): This could be accomplish with one big play in Seahawks coordinator Ryan Grubb's new offense that has seen Metcalf produce two consecutive 100-yard games. Detroit is allowing an average of 216.7 passing yards per game.

LIONS SEEKING EFFICIENCY

Detroit didn't score in the second half against the Cardinals, but its defense was stout and the offense was well-balanced. Quarterback Jared Goff completed 18 of 23 passes for 199 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Running backs David Montgomery (one TD) and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 188 yards.

Lions coach Dan Campbell anticipates that his offense will need to be more dynamic to head into a bye week on a winning note.

"We have to be very efficient, first and second down, and then, honestly, I think we have to win the explosive battle," he said. "We have to get some explosives on offense, and we have to shut theirs down."

Goff threw for 323 yards and three touchdowns last season against Seattle, but the Seahawks pulled out a 37-31 overtime win. However, Goff sees a lot of changes on film between last year's Seahawks defense and this year's group.

"It's a completely different scheme," he said. "I'm sure there's a couple players that are still there, but as far as what you're looking at schematically, it's entirely different."

NEW-LOOK HAWKS OFFENSE

Seattle quarterback Geno Smith passed for 328 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions last season.

Smith connected with DK Metcalf on a 71-yard scoring pass in last week's 24-3 home victory over Miami. Zach Charbonnet, filling in for injured Kenneth Walker, rushed for 91 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries.

Metcalf said he worked during the offseason on snagging more passes in traffic.

"That definitely was a focus for me this offseason," he said. "Contested catches or 50/50 balls going up and attacking the ball, instead of trying to let it come down to me and catch it over my shoulder."

One way the Lions can neutralize Seattle's passing offense is to get pressure on Smith. Detroit's top defensive player, Aidan Hutchinson, has already recorded 6.5 sacks.

"We've got to find 97. He's off to a great start," Smith said of Hutchinson. "Obviously, he's a high draft pick and he's a guy who they're going to rely on. So if we can stalemate him, keep him from making big plays and getting in the backfield, getting (tackles for losses) and sacks, then we'll make it hard on their defense."

INJURY REPORT

Detroit will be without starting center Frank Ragnow, who has a partially torn pectoral muscle. Tight end Sam LaPorta missed Thursday's practice due to an ankle injury but was a full participant the next two days. Linebacker Alex Anzalone, who missed last week's game due to a concussion, fully participated in practice.

Walker (oblique) was a full participant on Saturday after being limited on Thursday and Friday. Defensive starters Leonard Williams (ribs) and linebackers Uchenna Nwosu (knee) and Jerome Baker (hamstring) sat out.

SERIES HISTORY

Seattle has won the past six meetings, with Detroit's last victory over the Seahawks coming in 2012.

"I would be lying though if I told you that I don't know that we've lost to them three years in a row," said Campbell, Detroit's head coach since the 2021 season. "I do know that. So, you get tired of that. You get tired of that after one loss, much less three."

PREDICTION

While the Seahawks are 3-0, their three wins have come against a rookie quarterback making his first start (Bo Nix), a journeyman (Jacoby Brissett) and an injury replacement (Skylar Thompson). Seattle may be trending in the right direction, but the Lions pose an entirely different test on the road. Detroit will control the line of scrimmage defensively and take advantage of a Seattle defense still honing in on Macdonald's complex scheme. -- Lions 27, Seahawks 20

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Player Notes
Mark Andrews Sep 30 1:13pm CT
Mark Andrews

Dynasty | Tight end Mark Andrews dropped his only target in the Ravens win against the Bills. Dynasty Analysis: After two straight weeks with no production at all, Andrews currently sits at just six catches for 65 yards on the season. It's an unfathomable development for a player of his caliber, making many wonder if he's truly healthy or if there's more to the story somewhere. At this point, Andrews should be planted on fantasy benches and is getting to roster clogger territory quickly. He may need a trade to find value again.

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Derrick Henry Sep 30 1:13pm CT
Derrick Henry

Dynasty | Ravens running back Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards, caught three passes for ten more yards and scored two touchdowns in a demolition of the Bills. Dynasty Analysis: Henry was a one-man wrecking crew and took the first carry of the game 87 yards to the house. He didn't slow down from there, churning out another 112 yards on the ground, punishing defenders who stood in his way. After some questionable usage the first two weeks, the King now has 49 carries the past two weeks, posting 350 yards and three touchdowns in the process. The 30-year old Henry is a prime target for a contending team as he looks poised for a big season.

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Trey Sermon Sep 30 1:13pm CT
Trey Sermon

Dynasty | Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has a high ankle sprain. Dynasty Analysis: The news likely sounds worse than it is. The Colts are classifying this as a mild injury and are hoping to have him back in the fold this week. If he does miss time, Trey Sermon is going to be a hot desperation play for as long as Taylor misses time. One thing seems clear, though - this certainly doesn't seem like a repeat of the injury Taylor had last season that derailed his year. Stay tuned.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Doug Pederson Sep 30 1:00pm CT
Doug Pederson

Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said that linebacker Josh Hines-Allen (concussion) is in the league's concussion protocol after being forced from the Week 4 loss to the division-rival Houston Texans with a head injury. Before getting injured on Sunday in Houston, Hines-Allen had three tackles (two solo). The injury puts the 27-year-old pass-rusher's status for the Week 5 contest against the division-rival Indianapolis Colts firmly in question as the Jaguars seek their first win of 2024. The former seventh overall pick in 2019 out of Kentucky had a career-high 17.5 sacks in 17 games for the Jags in 2023 but has only taken an opposing quarterback down one time through the first four weeks of 2024. Fantasy managers in IDP formats will need to have a backup plan in place this week in case Hines-Allen isn't cleared for Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Haason Reddick Sep 30 12:50pm CT
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The New York Jets situation with defensive end Haason Reddick still has no resolution in since, and some have wondered if the Jets could just trade him back to the Philadelphia Eagles. However, per NFL rules, that scenario is not possible. Teams cannot trade a player, then reacquire him via trade until two years elapse. The 30-year-old was expecting the Jets to give him a new long-term contract extension after they acquired him in the offseason, but that hasn't been the case, leading to his holdout extended into the 2024 regular season. Reddick has already requested another trade, but the Jets have no plans to accommodate him, although league sources believe eventually that will have to be the solution. An already strong Jets defense would benefit from the presence of Reddick, but it doesn't look like that is going to happen.

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Rashee Rice Sep 30 12:30pm CT
Rashee Rice

The Kansas City Chiefs are saying that wide receiver Rashee Rice (knee) is still undergoing tests on his injured knee on Monday, but he will not be available to play in Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints. Rice injured his knee early in the Week 4 win over the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers and is feared to have suffered a season-ending torn ACL. It hasn't been confirmed yet, but fantasy managers need to be bracing for the announcement that the 24-year-old pass-catcher is indeed out for the year. With Marquise Brown (shoulder) also expected to miss the entire season and with running back Isiah Pacheco (leg) on Injured Reserve with a fractured leg, the Chiefs are running out of playmakers on offense. Rookie Xavier Worthy will now have a much bigger role, as well as receivers Justin Watson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman and tight end Travis Kelce.

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Tyler Badie Sep 30 12:20pm CT
Tyler Badie

Denver Broncos promising running back Tyler Badie (back), who left the Week 4 win over the New York Jets on a backboard on Sunday, has full movement of his arms and legs and is back in Denver with the team, according to sources. Badie suffered a back injury that could land him on Injured Reserve, but there's a chance he can return this season. The 24-year-old would be forced to miss at least four games he he's placed on IR. A sixth-rounder in 2022 by the Baltimore Ravens out of Missouri, Badie had 11 carries for 86 yards in three games this year and was potentially going to have a shot at a bigger role with both Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin struggling early on out of the backfield. Before being stretchered off on Sunday, he lost a fumble on his only carry and recorded two catches for minus-four yards receiving against the Jets.

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Shaq Thompson Sep 30 12:20pm CT
Shaq Thompson

Carolina Panthers standout linebacker Shaq Thompson (Achilles), who was playing his best football early on this year, is believed to have torn his Achilles in the Week 4 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals and is out for the season, according to sources. Thompson is undergoing an MRI exam on Monday to confirm the devastating injury. The 30-year-old former 25th overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft out of Washington had recorded 35 tackles (19 solo) in the first four games in 2024 after playing in just two games last year. It's a massive blow the rest of the way for a Panthers defense that already had plenty of question marks. Thompson will eventually be placed on Injured Reserve and will have surgery on his torn Achilles. Fantasy managers will want to target Carolina's defense even more so moving forward in 2024.

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Jacoby Brissett Sep 30 12:10pm CT
Jacoby Brissett

After the New England Patriots' blowout loss on the road to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4 on Sunday, head coach Jerod Mayo once again reiterated that quarterback Jacoby Brissett is the starter moving forward. "Jacoby is 100% our starter, and that's how we're going to look at this going forward," Mayo said. Brissett went 19-for-32 for 168 yards, one touchdown and a pick-six in the 30-13 loss to the Niners and also fumbled once. A report surfaced before Sunday's game that rookie first-round quarterback Drake Maye isn't exactly close to being ready to take over, so it's more about Maye's progress than Brissett actually earning the gig. Through four weeks, Brissett checks in as the QB32 with 536 passing yards, two touchdowns and a pick in four games while leading New England to a league-worst 13.0 points per game. Even in superflex leagues, fantasy managers should be looking to avoid him in Week 5 against the division-rival Miami Dolphins.

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Shaq Thompson Sep 30 11:43am CT
Shaq Thompson

Carolina Panthers LB Shaq Thompson (Achilles) suffered a torn Achilles and will miss the remainder of the season, according to sources Monday, Sept. 30.

From TheHuddle

Rome Odunze Sep 30 11:10am CT
Rome Odunze

Chicago Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze had a quiet outing in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams, catching just one of his three targets for 10 yards. This performance was a letdown after his breakout game the previous week. The return of veteran receiver Keenan Allen (heel) likely affected Odunze's targets, as he shifted back to a No. 3 role with Allen coming off a two-game absence. Consequently, Odunze saw a notable decline in production. Throughout his rookie season, he has struggled to make a consistent impact, recording two or fewer receptions in three of four games. His target and yardage totals this week marked his lowest yet, leaving him with ample opportunity for improvement in a Week 5 home matchup against the Panthers.

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Cole Kmet Sep 30 11:10am CT
Cole Kmet

Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet had a modest outing against the struggling Los Angeles Rams secondary, finishing with three catches for 34 yards, including a long reception of 22 yards. After a quiet performance in Week 1, Kmet has maintained steady involvement in the offense, registering at least three targets in each of the last three games. However, this game was a disappointment following his breakout performance last week. The return of veteran receiver Keenan Allen (heel) may have affected Kmet's target share, as he experienced a notable reduction in workload compared to his 10-catch game against the Colts in Week 3. Kmet tied for second on the team in receptions and was the runner-up in receiving yards for the day. Nonetheless, his production on Sunday is likely more in line with his typical performance than what he achieved in the loss to Indianapolis.

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Keenan Allen Sep 30 11:10am CT
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Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen had a muted return from injury in Week 4 against the Rams. He finished the game with just three receptions for 19 yards on three targets. Coming back from a two-game absence due to a heel injury, Allen played a secondary role in the passing attack as Caleb Williams threw for only 157 yards and one touchdown. However, he may see a more prominent role in a favorable Week 5 home matchup against the Panthers. While Allen is a game-changer, his value for fantasy managers largely depends on the Bears' ability to establish a more consistent offensive rhythm.

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Jacoby Brissett Sep 30 10:43am CT
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New England Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett is '100% our quarterback going forward,' according to head coach Jerod Mayo.

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D.J. Moore Sep 30 10:40am CT
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D'Andre Swift Sep 30 10:30am CT
D'Andre Swift

Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift delivered his best performance of the season in Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams. Swift totaled 165 yards from scrimmage and scored a touchdown, leading the team in rushing and receiving yards. The Bears successfully established a run game by utilizing Swift and getting him into open space. He finished with 16 carries for 93 yards, averaging a solid 5.8 yards per carry, and added seven receptions for 72 yards. Notably, he broke off a 36-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter, extending the lead to 24-15. Signed to a three-year, $24 million contract in March, Swift managed 114 total yards through the first three weeks, averaging only 1.8 yards per carry. The Bears combined for 131 rushing yards after only managing 63 against the Colts. Swift also achieved season highs in receptions and receiving yards, making it a successful outing both on the field and for fantasy football owners. With the lead-back role firmly in his hands, he will next face the Panthers' defense in a Week 5 home matchup.

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Roschon Johnson Sep 30 10:30am CT
Roschon Johnson

Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson saw increased usage in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams, serving as a change-of-pace option to help secure tough yards. He scored a one-yard touchdown in the second quarter, capitalizing on a strip-sack by Montez Sweat deep in Rams territory. Johnson's downhill rushing style made him an ideal choice for goal-line situations, while D'Andre Swift, who had struggled early in the season, found his rhythm once the Bears got him into open space. Chicago finished the game with 131 rushing yards, a significant improvement from the 63 they managed against the Colts. After impressing in his first outing of the season in Week 3, Johnson solidified his role as the clear No. 2 running back behind Swift. Although Swift had his best game yet, Johnson may have established himself enough to maintain his change-of-pace role and secure future goal-line opportunities.

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Caleb Williams Sep 30 10:20am CT
Caleb Williams

This Sunday, Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams had a strong performance against the Los Angeles Rams. Once Williams and the Bears' offense found their rhythm, they began to string together the kind of possessions the team and its fans hope to see regularly. It was Williams' most efficient outing yet, as he posted a quarterback rating of 106.6 and led four scoring drives. He threw for 157 yards and a touchdown, following a Bears rookie record of 363 yards on 52 attempts in a loss to Indianapolis the previous week. Williams described this game as a step forward, completing 17 of 23 passes, including a nine-yard touchdown to DJ Moore in the third quarter. Notably, he did not commit any turnovers after facing issues in the previous game, where he was intercepted twice and lost a fumble. This week, he took care of the football and orchestrated multiple drives that resulted in touchdowns. Williams bounced back from two consecutive games with multiple turnovers, showcasing an encouraging development as he prepares for a favorable Week 5 matchup against the Panthers next Sunday.

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Wil Lutz Sep 30 10:10am CT
Wil Lutz

Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz came into the Week 4 contest against the New York Jets with a perfect 9-for-9 mark on field goals and 3-for-3 mark on extra-point tries through the first three weeks of the 2024 season. Unfortunately, he was not able to extend his perfect streak in the 10-9 upset win over the Jets on Sunday, going 1-for-2 on his field goals while making his lone extra-point try in a game that featured just one touchdown on the day. The 30-year-old's first miss of the year came from 50 yards out as the Broncos tried to make it a four-point lead late in the contest. In his defense, the field was wet from a steady rain all day. Lutz has been reliable so far in his time in Denver, dating back to last year, but he measures up as a volatile fantasy kicker in an offense that is averaging just 15.5 points per game through four weeks. He will have a little more streaming potential in deep fantasy leagues in Week 5 against the division-rival Raiders in Denver.

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Josh Reynolds Sep 30 10:00am CT
Josh Reynolds

Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds entered the Week 4 contest against the New York Jets as Denver's leading receiver through the first three games. But in the 10-9 rain-soaked upset victory on Sunday over the Jets in Week 4, rookie quarterback Bo Nix only looked Reynolds' way two times, and he was unable to catch either of the two targets. We warned fantasy managers that Reynolds was an extremely volatile and desperate flex play in an offense that is among the worst in the NFL after four weeks of the 2024 campaign. Reynolds and the Broncos should be able to move the ball much better in a Week 5 divisional matchup versus the Las Vegas Raiders, but expectations should remain low for Broncos pass-catchers not named Courtland Sutton. The 29-year-old caught 11 of his 17 targets for 174 yards and no touchdowns through the first three games.

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