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NFL Divisional Playoffs: Texans-Chiefs Preview, Props & Prediction

Sat Jan 18 1:21pm ET
Field Level Media

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs kicks off when the Kansas City Chiefs begin their quest for a three-peat at home against the Houston Texans on Saturday.

The Chiefs (15-2) will be well-rested coming off their bye week courtesy of earning the top seed in the AFC. The Texans (10-7) are coming off an impressive come-from-behind victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round.

ODDS & TRENDS

Kansas City is a consensus 8.0-point favorite, although the line was 8.5 at several sportsbooks on Friday. That includes at BetRivers, where the Chiefs have been backed by 86 percent of the spread-line bets and 96 percent of the money.

The 41.5 total points line has seen the Over draw 63 and 69 percent of the money, respectively.

PROP PICK

--Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco 40+ Rushing YArds (-175 at DraftKings): This has been the most popular player prop at the book, which is also offering +115 odds on 50-plus yards and +220 odds on 60-plus yards. Pacheco returned in December and has topped 50 yards only once in the past four games as he continues to share the backfield with Kareem Hunt. We do expect to see a heavier workload for Pacheco in the postseason.

THE NEWS

Will Anderson Jr. and Mario Edwards Jr. both had 1.5 sacks against Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who threw four interceptions to surpass his regular-season total of three in Houston's 32-12 win.

Derek Stingley Jr. hauled in two of the Texans' picks, while Eric Murray returned his interception 38 yards for a score.

"We talk about having aggressive hands and going to get the ball and pulling it away, pulling it down. Those things," Houston defensive coordinator Matt Burke said. "They all have the mindset of, ‘We're going to attack the ball,' you know. We try to say there's no such thing as a 50/50 ball. ... That's our ball when it's in the air. I think it's a skill set for sure and it's a mindset. I think those guys, when the ball is thrown to them, they want to go. That's their ball."

Houston grabbed a second-quarter lead in its Week 16 visit to Kansas City but lost 27-19, struggling to regroup after a would-be, game-tying PAT kick in the third quarter was no good.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes passed and rushed for a touchdown on an ankle he sprained the previous week. Texans counterpart C.J. Stroud passed for two scores but was intercepted twice.

Houston linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, who missed the game as part of a suspension following a hit that concussed Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence, anticipates a fun matchup against Mahomes.

"I think it's going to be a great competition," Al-Shaair said. "Obviously, his resume speaks for itself. Just to be out there with the best of the best, that's what you (play) the game for. On Saturday, it's going to be all lights on us."

Mahomes is 6-0 in divisional games in his career. He rested in Week 18 after matching a season high with three touchdown passes in the previous game. He and his wife welcomed their third child, daughter Golden, to start the week.

"This team shows a lot of resiliency," said defensive lineman Chris Jones, who missed the last three games with a calf strain. "This team can win in a multitude of ways, whether it's offense, defense or special teams. We've broadcast that throughout the year. This team had a lot of close games, we've had a lot of injuries, faced a lot of adversity early on throughout the year."

Mahomes said he's focused on the task at hand after a 15-2 regular season in which 11 games were decided by eight points or less. He flipped his social media profile pictures to his collection of Super Bowl rings in a message he's back in business.

KEY STAT

With 15 career postseason wins, Mahomes can tie Joe Montana (16 wins) for second place all-time in playoff wins by a quarterback behind Tom Brady (35). Mahomes is four places behind Brady for the all-time playoff touchdown record, and just five TDs would bump him up to second place on that list. Brady has 88 TD passes in 48 playoff games; Mahomes has 41 in 18 games. Aaron Rodgers (45), Montana (45) and Brett Favre (44) stand between the two.

INJURY REPORT

Texans running back Joe Mixon did not practice on Thursday after being limited on Wednesday with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for the game. He had 25 carries for 106 yards and a 17-yard touchdown last week.

Tight end Dalton Schultz (shoulder) was a full participant on Thursday after being limited Wednesday.

Al-Shaair (knee) missed Tuesday's practice and was limited Wednesday and Thursday. He was shaken up during Saturday's wild-card win, though he returned after missing just one snap and is listed as questionable to play against the Chiefs. Wide receiver Robert Woods (hip) has not practiced and is questionable, as is tight end Teagan Quitoriano (calf), who is on injured reserve.

For the Chiefs, wide receiver Mecole Hardman (knee) has been limited all week and is doubtful, while cornerback Jaylen Watson (ankle) is questionable despite being a full practice participant this week.

SERIES PLAYOFF HISTORY

The Texans are aiming for the franchise's first AFC title game after five losses in as many trips to the divisional round.

Kansas City overcame a 24-0 second-quarter deficit against the visiting Texans in a divisional game after the 2019 season, winning 51-31 en route to a Super Bowl title.

The Chiefs blanked the host Texans 30-0 in a wild-card game after the 2015 season.

THEY SAID IT

"Every year is a new challenge. Every year is a new opportunity to go and achieve the ultimate goal, and that's to win a championship." --Jones

PREDICTION

The Texans pulled away from Chargers in the friendly confines of their stadium in Houston last week. Taking on a well-rested Chiefs team at Arrowhead Stadium -- where the temperatures are expected to top out in the mid-20s on Saturday -- is an entirely different task. Kansas City's offense isn't as explosive as in years past, but the Chiefs simply don't lose at home in the divisional round of the playoffs.

--Chiefs 27, Texans 20

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Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Divisional Round

Player Notes
Jeff Ulbrich Jan 18 12:10pm CT
Jeff Ulbrich

The Atlanta Falcons announced on Saturday that they interviewed former Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus for their vacant defensive-coordinator position. Eberflus becomes the seventh candidate interviewed for the job after the team fired Jimmy Lake after one season in the role in 2024. In addition to Eberflus, the Falcons have interviewed Jeff Ulbrich, Don "Wink" Martindale, Lou Anarumo and Steve Wilks. Eberflus went 14-32 in his three seasons as the Bears head coach but was fired after the team's Thanksgiving Day loss to the division-rival Detroit Lions. Before becoming Chicago's head coach, Eberflus was the Indianapolis Colts' defensive coordinator from 2018-21. Before coming to the NFL, he was Missouri's defensive coordinator from 2001-08. Eberflus got his start in the NFL in 2009 as the linebackers coach for the Cleveland Browns.

From RotoBaller

Mike Tomlin Jan 18 12:00pm CT
Mike Tomlin

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the Chicago Bears recently reached out to the Pittsburgh Steelers to see if they could swing a trade for long-time head coach Mike Tomlin, according to league sources. However, the Steelers rebuffed the Bears' request. When asked this week about the idea that a team would inquire about his availability, Tomlin simply said, "Save your time." One other team asked about Tomlin's availability, and the Steelers informed them that Tomlin has a full no-trade clause in his contract. Despite the Steelers' fifth straight loss in the first round of the playoffs, the team has no interest in trading him. There are plenty of frustrations with Pittsburgh's fan base, but they just signed Tomlin to a three-year extension last offseason that made him one of the NFL's highest-paid head coaches. The Steelers have also had just three head coaches since 1969.

From RotoBaller

Dennis Allen Jan 18 11:50am CT
Dennis Allen

Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is interviewing for the New Orleans Saints' vacant head-coaching position on Saturday, one day before his Eagles take on the Los Angeles Rams in a Divisional Round playoff game. Moore is a popular head-coaching candidate this cycle after leading the Eagles to the No. 2 seed in the NFC this year. He also interviewed for the Jacksonville Jaguars head-coaching position on Friday and could be the favorite to return to the Dallas Cowboys to become their next head coach as well. Under the 36-year-old, the Cowboys led the league in total yards in both 2019 and 2021. This year under Moore, the Eagles ranked seventh in points per game (27.2) and eighth in total yards per game (367.2). The Saints are looking for a new head coach after firing Dennis Allen in the middle of the 2024 season.

From RotoBaller

Josh Allen Jan 18 11:40am CT
Josh Allen

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that the Buffalo Bills could restructure quarterback Josh Allen's contract in the offseason. The MVP candidate has four years left on his current deal and received a $5 million pay bump before the start of the 2024 campaign. He's scheduled to make only $14.5 million next season on a front-loaded contract. Rapoport says that the Bills and Allen have an excellent relationship, so he would not be surprised if the team looks to adjust his contract after their season is over. The 28-year-old former seventh overall pick in 2018 out of Wyoming has become one of the best QBs in the NFL, even though he failed to reach 4,000 passing yards in 2024 for the first time since his second year in the league in 2019. Allen more than made up for it with his rushing prowess with 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs while also throwing a career-low six interceptions.

From RotoBaller

Najee Harris Jan 18 11:30am CT
Najee Harris

Pittsburgh Steelers running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will both be free agents in March, and Cordarrelle Patterson has one year left on his two-year deal. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Gerry Dulac expects only one of those three RBs to return in 2025. Harris' return could be in jeopardy despite the fact that he's just one of 14 players in NFL history to start their career with four straight 1,000-yard seasons. The writing was on the wall when the team didn't pick up his fifth-year option last spring, and bringing him back on the franchise tag would cost $13.6 million. Dulac suggests the Steelers would prefer to look for a replacement in the NFL draft, which should have a deep class at the position. Warren is a restricted free agent, so he has a greater chance to return. While Harris did have 1,000 yards rushing in 2024, it was the second straight season he went without a TD reception.

From RotoBaller

Zay Flowers Jan 18 11:30am CT
Zay Flowers

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (knee), who is doubtful to play in Sunday's Divisional Round game against the Buffalo Bills, had a positive workout on Friday and could return to action next weekend if the Ravens advance to the AFC Championship. Flowers suffered a sprained knee in the Week 18 win over the division-rival Cleveland Browns and hasn't practiced since. He was unable to suit up for the team's win over the division-rival Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round last Saturday. It's good news for Baltimore, but they must first take down the Bills in Buffalo this weekend to give Flowers a shot at coming back next week. Without Flowers again this week, Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews will most likely be quarterback Lamar Jackson's most-targeted pass-catchers in what could be a shootout at Orchard Park.

From RotoBaller

Justin Fields Jan 18 11:20am CT
Justin Fields

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Gerry Dulac writes that in all likelihood, the Pittsburgh Steelers will start the 2025 season with a new starting quarterback, and he thinks that Justin Fields will be given the job. It's the third time in the last four years that the Steelers head into the offseason with uncertainty at the most important position. Both Fields and Russell Wilson will be free agents, and it's highly unlikely the Steelers will bring them both back. With the way the season ended with five straight losses and a disconnect with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, Dulac believes the Steelers will let Wilson walk. Fields, meanwhile, is only 25 and showed improvement in his 10 games played (six starts), completing a career-high 65.8% of his passes for 1,106 yards, five TDs and one interception while adding 289 rushing yards and five more scores.

From RotoBaller

Joe Mixon Jan 18 11:10am CT
Joe Mixon

Houston Texans Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon (ankle), who is questionable to play in the Divisional Round on Saturday against the Kansas City Chiefs after being limited in practice this week, will play, according to sources. Mixon was limited in practice on Wednesday and did not practice on Thursday, leading to his questionable tag. However, the Texans said on Friday that the 28-year-old was expected to play, and now it's official that he'll be active to kick off the Divisional Round of the postseason as the Texans look to pull a huge upset on the road in KC. The two-time Pro Bowler ran for 1,016 yards and scored 12 total touchdowns in the regular season and also had over 100 yards rushing and a TD in last week's win over the Chargers. However, his ankle could limit him somewhat on Saturday against a Chiefs defense that allowed the fewest PPR points to RBs all season long.

From RotoBaller

Sam Darnold Jan 18 10:00am CT
Sam Darnold

The Rams defense/special teams put on an impressive show last week against the Vikings, and they'll need to show up again on Sunday in their road game against the Eagles. On Monday, the Rams dropped Sam Darnold nine times for sacks, forced two turnovers and even scored a defensive touchdown while holding the vaunted Vikings' offense to nine points. Not counting the last game of the season when starters rested, they have allowed under ten points in four straight games while recording seven takeaways and 17 sacks. They'll have a tough task against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles this week. Last week, the Eagles did not turn the ball over in their win against the Packers while allowing two sacks. Adverse weather could keep the game low scoring, and the Rams' defense will again look to rise to the challenge and make big plays to help their team advance.

From RotoBaller

Joshua Karty Jan 18 9:30am CT
Joshua Karty

Los Angeles Rams kicker Joshua Karty has a brutal matchup in less-than-ideal conditions this week, so he's probably not the best fantasy option. The rookie did have a strong finish to the season, making 15 straight field goal attempts over the last six games. However, the Eagles have allowed the fewest fantasy points in the NFL to opposing kickers this season, and the weather is expected to be cold and wet. Since most of Karty's recent success has come indoors at SoFi Stadium, it seems like a difficult place to count on him for a big fantasy week in the Divisional Round.

From RotoBaller

Cooper Kupp Jan 18 9:20am CT
Cooper Kupp

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp has struggled down the stretch, but the Rams will need him to step up with a throwback game in Philadelphia if they want to knock off the Eagles. Last week against the Vikings, Kupp played only 55% of snaps and was only targeted one time. He converted that target to a 29-yard catch, but the Rams will need him much more involved this week. Over their last five games, Kupp has totaled just five catches, although he did rest for one of those contests. The drop off has come quickly for Kupp, who had several strong games earlier in the season. He'll remain behind Puka Nacua in terms of workload for this week, but the Rams will need his playmaking abilities if they want to get to the NFC Championship Game. He's a high-risk fantasy play this week given his recent struggles, but Kupp does still have upside as a flier.

From RotoBaller

Demarcus Robinson Jan 18 9:10am CT
Demarcus Robinson

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Demarcus Robinson played 72% of the team's snaps in their Wild Card Round win over the Vikings. He actually played more snaps than Cooper Kupp but only had two targets, one catch, and 23 receiving yards. The Rams passing game could struggle in the weather in Philadelphia, but Robinson is getting enough playing time to deserve consideration as a punt play for DFS contests. He did have some good games earlier in the season and scored seven touchdowns. One of those scores came against the Eagles in their regular season meeting, and he'll have touchdown-dependent upside this week in the rematch.

From RotoBaller

Ronnie Rivers Jan 18 9:00am CT
Ronnie Rivers

Los Angeles Rams running back Ronnie Rivers stepped in as the primary backup for Kyren Williams last week in the Rams' first game of the playoffs. He replaced rookie Blake Corum (forearm) on the depth chart but had a similarly minimal workload. Rivers wasn't targeted and gained eight rushing yards on his three carries. He'll probably get a few touches again this week against the Eagles, but he hasn't had enough of a role to deserve much fantasy attention yet. In Week 18, he did have four catches for 34 yards and 12 carries for 48 yards while Williams was resting, so if there's an injury and he has to step up, there is some potential upside to consider if you're looking for a DFS punt play.

From RotoBaller

Puka Nacua Jan 18 9:00am CT
Puka Nacua

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua is the clear focus of the Rams' passing game and was targeted nine times on Monday Night Football when his Rams knocked off the Vikings, 27-9. He has at least eight targets in each of his last nine games, and the only games this season in which he was targeted fewer times than that he left early due to injury or ejection. Last week, he only had five catches for 44 yards, which was his lowest total for any full game this season. However, his high volume and big-play ability keep him a strong fantasy option against Philadelphia in the Divisional Round. He had nine catches on 13 targets for 117 yards against the Eagles in the regular season, and he'll likely have a good opportunity to post similar totals this week as long as the weather isn't too much of a factor. However, even if conditions are difficult, coach Sean McVay will be able to find ways to get the ball into his hands since he's one of the team's top playmakers.

From RotoBaller

Matthew Stafford Jan 18 8:50am CT
Matthew Stafford

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Rams took down the Vikings last week in the NFL Wild Card Round to earn a road matchup in the Divisional Round. Stafford completed 19 of his 27 pass attempts for 209 yards and two touchdowns, which was a big step forward for the veteran after not passing for multiple touchdowns or 100+ yards in any of his final three regular season games. He'll look to build on that success Sunday afternoon against the Eagles. Against Philadelphia in Week 12, Stafford completed 24-of-36 pass attempts for 243 yards and two scores, but that was indoors in Los Angeles, while Sunday's Divisional Round matchup is in Philly with an awful weather forecast. While he has mixed results in cold weather games, he has struggled in the rain and snow, going 1-8 with just a 54.6% completion rating, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. More than the weather, the Eagles' defense will pose a tough test for Stafford after they shut down Jordan Love and the Packers. Even in a tough spot, Stafford has enough upside to be a DFS flier, but he's very high-risk given his recent track record and the obstacles he'll be up against on Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Kyren Williams Jan 18 8:50am CT
Kyren Williams

Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams faced the Vikings last week, who allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL this season, and this week, things don't get much better as he faces the Eagles, who gave up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Williams did still deliver last week, though, finding the end zone as a receiver while catching all three of his targets for 16 yards. He totaled 76 rushing yards on his 16 carries as well, posting an average of 4.8 yards per carry which was slightly above his season average. Especially with potential weather concerns, the Rams will lean heavily on Williams again this week in Philadelphia. He had 16 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles in their regular season meeting and produced at least 70 rushing yards in seven of his last eight games. Volume should be no problem for him this week, either, and he has touchdown-dependent upside as the Rams look to pull off a road upset against the Eagles.

From RotoBaller

Kyren Williams Jan 18 6:10am CT
Kyren Williams

Philadelphia Eagles D/ST enters Sunday's Divisional Round matchup against the Los Angeles Rams as one of the league's top defensive units. The Eagles allowed the fewest points per game this season (17.2) and have been even stingier in recent weeks, giving up an average of just 10 points over their last three contests. In their Week 12 meeting, Philadelphia's defense limited the Rams to 20 points, 198 passing yards, and 92 rushing yards in a 37-20 win. This season, the Eagles have held opponents to an NFL-best 175.3 passing yards per game and rank ninth against the run (104.3 rushing yards per game). The Rams will need to rely on playmakers like Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams to keep the Eagles from dominating.

From RotoBaller

Byron Young Jan 17 9:20pm CT
Byron Young

Philadelphia Eagles defensive lineman Byron Young (hamstring) has officially been ruled out for Sunday's Divisional round matchup with the Los Angeles Rams. The 24-year-old has been shelved since picking up a hamstring injury and being placed on injured reserve in late October. Young returned to practice last week and was a full participant each day before being ruled out for their 22-10 Wild Card win over the Green Bay Packers. He logged three full sessions again this week but is evidently not ready to return to game action. For now, teammates Jalen Carter and Milton Williams will lead the charge for the Eagles' defensive front, with Moro Ojomo and Jordan Davis working in behind them.

From RotoBaller

Saquon Barkley Jan 17 9:10pm CT
Saquon Barkley

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley faces the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday in the Divisional Round, a team he torched for 255 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Week 12. The NFL's rushing champion has been the centerpiece of Philadelphia's offense, logging over 20 touches in eight of his last nine games. The Rams allowed 4.52 yards per carry during the regular season and struggled to contain Barkley's downhill running style, as 162 of his 255 yards in their last matchup came after contact. While the Rams' defense has tightened recently, Barkley remains a near-lock for high-volume usage behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines. Expect him to dominate touches and provide the usual production as the Eagles aim to punch their ticket to the NFC Championship.

From RotoBaller

DeVonta Smith Jan 17 9:10pm CT
DeVonta Smith

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith heads into Sunday's Divisional Round matchup against the Los Angeles Rams as a pivotal part of the Eagles' passing attack. Smith led the team in receiving during last week's Wild Card victory, catching all four of his targets for 55 yards. This came on the heels of an impressive close to the regular season, where he averaged 79.3 receiving yards per game and scored three touchdowns over his last three contests. With Jalen Hurts now fully recovered and the Eagles facing a Rams defense that has struggled against top-tier wideouts, Smith could be poised for another strong outing.

From RotoBaller