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Week 14 MNF: Cowboys-Bengals Preview, Prop and Prediction

Mon Dec 9 11:46am ET
Field Level Media

A Week 14 matchup between the Bengals and Cowboys looked intriguing when the league released the schedule.

Not many expected these teams to be near the bottom of the pecking order in the playoff picture.

Cincinnati (4-8) and Dallas (5-7) have a 2% chance of reaching the postseason according to NFL.com's playoff predictor.

With such a grim outlook, these defenses could be particularly vulnerable.

As a result, this is a matchup where offenses are in line for big numbers, so it's no surprise that we have a total of 49.5.

The Bengals have the more fluid offense and would be in a better spot in the standings if not for quite a few bad breaks. We'll explain why bettors should expect the Bengals to jump out to a fast start on Monday night.

--Joe Burrow has been elite

Per TeamRankings, the Jets (-2.7) are the only team with a worse luck factor than the Bengals (-2.4).

That metric suggests that, with a little better luck, the Bengals could have had an additional 2.4 wins on the year.

They've gotten excellent play at the quarterback position from Joe Burrow, who leads the league with 30 touchdowns while only throwing five interceptions.

Burrow's play has been so good that he even ranks second in Total QBR with a 74.2 value. Given the importance of the position, it's rare that you see a quarterback with such a high Total QBR on a team that's four games under .500.

It's worth noting that Burrow still managed to put up these prodigious numbers despite not having one of his best wide receivers, Tee Higgins, for five games.

Higgins is now back with the team, which should help Cincinnati's all-gas and no-brakes offense.

-Prop Play

It's a night for the receivers in Dallas, a duel that spotlights No. 1 targets CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase.

Lamb was slow to return to the practice field midweek but is ready to go and will be active against a Bengals' defense with no true No. 1 cornerback. He'll be targeted early and is a bargain for two-plus catches on the opening drive (+350).

We are resisting that early wager based on the number of variables at play and Cooper Rush's wild inconsistency working from the pocket.

But both offenses will get plenty of yards and air it out, making the two-player prop for these wide receivers an easy decision.

Prop pick: CeeDee Lamb alternate receiving yards, 70-plus; Ja'Marr Chase alternate receiving yards, 90-plus (+285, FanDuel)

--Bengals' offense is their best defense

Given Burrow's performances, the Bengals have no choice but to lean on him to get the offense going. Cincinnati has the fourth-highest pass-play rate (64.3%) in the league, mainly because its defense can barely stop a nosebleed at this point.

Moreover, the Bengals have the fourth-worst defense by DVOA standards. They particularly struggle against the pass, which the Cowboys offense will look to take advantage of after posting back-to-back wins to snap a five-game losing streak.

Considering that Dallas also has the third-highest pass-play rate (64.9%), it's no secret what these offenses will try to do once they get on the field.

While Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush has looked better in his last few games, there's no comparison between him and Burrow.

The Bengals are in a position where they can't relax on offense because of their leaky defense. They should have plenty of success against a Dallas team that struggles to get stops inside the red zone, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on a league-worst 76.9% of their trips.

When you combine that with Cincinnati having the second-best red zone offense (71%), it could be a long night for the Cowboys' defense.

However, the number that stands out the most is that the Cowboys' defense gives up an average of 20.7 first-half points per game to visiting teams.

That stat is simply too good to pass up, making the Bengals' first-half team total of 13.5 points a play worth targeting on Monday night.

Best Bet: Bengals 1H team total over 13.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

--Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

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Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 14

Player Notes
Isaac Guerendo Dec 9 11:10am CT
Isaac Guerendo

San Francisco 49ers rookie running back Isaac Guerendo (foot) exited the Week 14 blowout win over the Chicago Bears early on Sunday with a foot injury, but he said the move to remove him from the contest was for precautionary reasons and that he feels great. It's good news, but Guerendo could be dealing with a foot sprain and he'll go for additional testing on Monday. It may not be a very serious injury, but the Niners have a short turnaround in Week 15 with a pivotal divisional matchup this Thursday night against the Los Angeles Rams upcoming. The 24-year-old contributed right away for fantasy managers that picked Guerendo up with Christian McCaffrey (knee) done for the year and Jordan Mason (ankle) expected to land on Injured Reserve, racking up 128 scrimmage yards and two TDs on Sunday. If he cannot get cleared for Thursday night, Patrick Taylor Jr. figures to be San Fran's lead back.

From RotoBaller

Jake Moody Dec 9 10:50am CT
Jake Moody

San Francisco 49ers kicker Jake Moody went 5-for-5 on extra points and also made his lone field-goal attempt during Sunday's Week 14 win over the Chicago Bears. His successful field goal came from 23 yards out in the waning minutes of the first half. The 25-year-old is averaging 8.6 fantasy points per game, but he ranks 22nd among kickers in fantasy points over his last four contests. Moody can be left on waivers heading into Week 15 against the Los Angeles Rams.

From RotoBaller

Jason Myers Dec 9 10:50am CT
Jason Myers

Seattle Seahawks kicker Jason Myers went 3-for-3 on extra points and 3-for-3 on field goals during Sunday's Week 14 win over the Arizona Cardinals. His field goals came from 20, 35, and 36 yards out. The 33-year-old has missed six kicks in 2024 three of each kind. He ranks as the overall K14 in 2024, but that ranking jumps to K7 when you single out his last four games. Myers should continue to be treated as a fringe fantasy starter heading into next week's battle with the Green Bay Packers.

From RotoBaller

Tyler Bass Dec 9 10:40am CT
Tyler Bass

Buffalo Bills kicker Tyler Bass went 6-for-6 on extra points and did not attempt a field goal during Sunday's Week 14 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Six extra points aren't ideal for fantasy scoring, but fantasy managers should still be satisfied with Bass achieving perfection on the road. The 27-year-old is now 44-for-48 on extra points and 19-for-23 on field goals in 2024, ranking 12th in fantasy points among kickers. He should continue to be deployed as a fringe top-12 kicking option ahead of Week 15 against the Detroit Lions.

From RotoBaller

Will Reichard Dec 9 10:40am CT
Will Reichard

Minnesota Vikings kicker Will Reichard went 6-for-6 on extra points but missed his lone field-goal attempt during Sunday's Week 14 win over the Atlanta Falcons. The rookie returned from injured reserve this week, but his accuracy issues persisted; he is now 0-for-3 on field goals over his last two games. On a more positive note, he has been perfect on 29 extra-point attempts so far. Reichard ranked as the overall K12 from Weeks 1 to 9. Despite Sunday's miss from 47 yards out, the 23-year-old still has significant fantasy upside given Minnesota's strong offense. He remains just inside the top 12 kicking options for Week 15 against Chicago.

From RotoBaller

Chase McLaughlin Dec 9 10:30am CT
Chase McLaughlin

Tampa Bay Buccaneers kicker Chase McLaughlin went 4-for-4 on extra points and did not attempt a field goal during Sunday's Week 14 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Four extra points don't exactly move the needle in terms of fantasy scoring, but managers can still be satisfied with the fact that he didn't miss a kick against Las Vegas. McLaughlin has now gone 38-for-40 on extra points and 21-for-23 on field goals in 2024, ranking eighth among kickers in terms of fantasy points this year. He should continue to be deployed as a top-12 kicking option heading into Week 15 against the Los Angeles Chargers.

From RotoBaller

Jahan Dotson Dec 9 10:20am CT
Jahan Dotson

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Jahan Dotson caught one of two targets for just five receiving yards during Sunday's Week 14 win over the Carolina Panthers. Dotson's lone reception came two minutes into the first quarter, and he would not catch another pass for the remainder of the contest. With DeVonta Smith (hamstring) back in the mix, the 24-year-old saw his role get scaled back. He played just 41 percent of the offensive snaps, which represents his lowest mark sinceWeek 6. All in all, Dotson remains a low-volume receiver who has just a dozen catches this season. Fantasy managers can leave him on waivers in all redraft leagues.

From RotoBaller

Travis Etienne Dec 9 10:20am CT
Travis Etienne

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. served as the pass-catching back and complement to Tank Bigsby in a 10-6 win over the Tennessee Titans. The former first-round back out of Clemson finished with an efficient 20 yards on four carries and 50 yards on four receptions. While it's not ideal for Etienne Jr. fantasy managers that Bigsby out-carried him 18 to four, his fantasy day was salvaged in the passing game. With Mac Jones being much less of a downfield passing threat than Trevor Lawrence, the running backs are expected to be more involved in the passing game. That came to fruition with Etienne Jr., who was second on the team in receptions and receiving yards. Etienne Jr. will look to continue producing in the passing game in a Week 15 clash with the New York Jets.

From RotoBaller

Odell Beckham Jr. Dec 9 10:20am CT
Odell Beckham Jr.

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. had one target, one catch, and one receiving yard during Sunday's Week 14 win over the New York Jets. The veteran has been a minimal contributor ever since making his Dolphins debut in Week 5, amassing just nine catches for 55 yards along the way. He also played a season-low 14 percent of the snaps on Sunday, emphasizing that he has lost the No. 3 receiver role to Malik Washington and is now fourth on the depth chart. Beckham should be avoided in all fantasy leagues.

From RotoBaller

Colby Parkinson Dec 9 10:20am CT
Colby Parkinson

Los Angeles Rams tight end Colby Parkinson converted his lone target into an 11-yard reception during Sunday's Week 14 win over the Buffalo Bills. The 25-year-old played 48 percent of the offensive snaps, which was his highest mark since Week 8. However, his role has remained quite modest as he has caught just one singular pass in each of his last four contests. Parkinson remains behind Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Demarcus Robinson in the Rams' pecking order, and as a result, he belongs on waivers in most fantasy formats.

From RotoBaller

Mac Jones Dec 9 10:10am CT
Mac Jones

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones led the team to a 10-6 victory over the Tennessee Titans despite a mediocre performance. The former Patriot finished with 23 completions on 31 attempts for 220 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Jaguars were able to move the ball decently well, but struggled to get in the end zone, producing just 10 points. All of their points came in the fourth quarter. Jones's top target was standout rookie Brian Thomas Jr., who had eight catches for 86 yards on 12 targets, 9 coming in the fourth quarter alone. After BTJ, the next best receiver was Travis Etienne Jr. with four catches for 50 yards. The Jaguars face the New York Jets in Week 15, where Jones will look to put the ball in the end zone instead of the defense's hands.

From RotoBaller

Brian Thomas Jr. Dec 9 10:10am CT
Brian Thomas Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. started slow but finished strong in a 10-6 victory over the Tennessee Titans. The rookie receiver finished with eight receptions and 86 yards on 12 targets, nine of which came in the fourth quarter. BTJ has been boom-or-bust for a lot of the season, so it was looking like a bust game for him early on. However, he got hot late to become Mac Jones's top receiver, doubling the next most receptions on the team. Usually, BTJ has a low amount of catches but high yards per catch. However, he produced a highly productive PPR outing with a backup QB, making this performance possibly his most impressive of the season. BTJ will look to continue producing with Jones under center in Week 15 against the New York Jets.

From RotoBaller

Josh Oliver Dec 9 10:00am CT
Josh Oliver

Minnesota Vikings tight end Josh Oliver caught one of two targets for 26 yards during Sunday's Week 14 win over the Atlanta Falcons. He had been averaging 10.9 fantasy points (PPR) over his last four games, but then he missed two weeks due to injury and came back down to earth in his return to the field on Sunday afternoon. Perhaps part of the reason for his reduced production was that he played just 50 percent of the offensive snaps; that was his lowest mark since Week 3. Oliver remains the clear No. 2 tight end behind T.J. Hockenson, which lowers his floor significantly and keeps him off the fantasy radar in most redraft leagues.

From RotoBaller

Geno Smith Dec 9 9:50am CT
Geno Smith

The Arizona Cardinals defense had a rough outing against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 14. The Cardinals were stuck with short fields due to interceptions and an injury to punter Blake Gillikin and could not generate any pressure on Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith. Despite racking up 19 sacks in the four weeks leading up to this matchup, the Cardinals did not record a single sack throughout the game. The Cardinals also struggled to stop the run, allowing Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet to record a season-high 134 yards on the ground. The Cardinals' defense should still have potential, as they have two upcoming matchups against the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers.

From RotoBaller

AJ Barner Dec 9 9:50am CT
AJ Barner

Seattle Seahawks tight end AJ Barner converted his lone target into a 13-yard reception during Sunday's Week 14 win over the Arizona Cardinals. The rookie continued to have a reduced workload with Noah Fant back in the lineup, but he did still record at least one reception for the 11th game in a row. Barner has carved out enough of a role that we can trust him to command a couple of looks every week, but he should be left on waivers in redraft leagues as long as Fant remains healthy and in the lineup.

From RotoBaller

DeAndre Hopkins Dec 9 9:40am CT
DeAndre Hopkins

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins caught four passes for 32 yards and a touchdown in the 19-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Hopkins saw a team-high nine targets on Sunday night but reeled in just four and averaged eight yards per catch. The veteran receiver was the only Chief to find the endzone against the stingy Chargers defense, demonstrating Patrick Mahomes' trust in him. Hopkins has provided a safe floor over his last three games and will look to continue that trend next week against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season, making them one of the more advantageous matchups. Hopkins has seen nine targets in the last two games, meaning Mahomes often looks in his direction. Fantasy managers should feel comfortable with Hopkins in their starting lineups.

From RotoBaller

Michael Wilson Dec 9 9:40am CT
Michael Wilson

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson caught a 41-yard touchdown pass to give the Cardinals the lead on their opening drive. Wilson finished the day with two catches for 57 yards, having commanded only three targets. While he has become a potential streaming flex option, he is still yet to receive a consistent workload to make him truly fantasy-relevant. The Cardinals have two upcoming matchups against the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers, both of which have struggling defenses, making Wilson a potential option in the coming weeks.

From RotoBaller

Xavier Worthy Dec 9 9:40am CT
Xavier Worthy

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy caught five passes for 41 yards in the 19-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Since his one-catch performance in Week 10 against the Broncos, Worthy has been a more consistent member of the Kansas City passing attack. The rookie now has four straight games of at least four catches and 40 receiving yards. The 21-year-old will look to find the endzone next week against the Cleveland Browns, who rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season. Worthy has provided a consistent floor over the past month but has yet to demonstrate the potential for ceiling performances. Worthy has only scored over 14 PPR fantasy points in three of his 13 games this season. Fantasy managers hope Worthy and Patrick Mahomes will connect on a long touchdown next week.

From RotoBaller

Van Jefferson Dec 9 9:40am CT
Van Jefferson

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Van Jefferson converted his lone target into a 10-yard touchdown reception during Sunday's Week 14 victory over the Cleveland Browns. With George Pickens (hamstring) inactive, Jefferson played 74 percent of the offense snaps, which was his highest mark since Week 8. Although he was targeted just once, the 28-year-old took advantage of his lone opportunity and scored a third-quarter touchdown that gave Pittsburgh a two-possession lead over its divisional opponent. Jefferson's reduced offensive role keeps him off the fantasy radar, especially with Pickens looking like he'll return to action in Week 15.

From RotoBaller

Marvin Harrison Jr. Dec 9 9:40am CT
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Arizona Cardinals rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. received eight targets in a Week 14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Harrison Jr. again finished near the top for targets behind tight end Trey McBride. However, he only converted those targets into four catches for 49 yards. It's been a tough season for Harrison Jr., as he and quarterback Kyler Murray are still working out their chemistry. The Cardinals' passing attack as a whole has lacked downfield shots, which has limited the effectiveness of the Cardinals' wide receivers. Harrison Jr. remains a solid fantasy option, as he is tied for sixth in the NFL in touchdown receptions and is a touchdown-dependent WR2 or WR3 moving forward.

From RotoBaller