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FFL: Week 5 | NFL: Week 5

Week 5 TNF: Bucs-Falcons Preview, Odds, Prediction

Thu Oct 3 1:22pm ET
Field Level Media

The Atlanta Falcons have an opportunity to pull even with Tampa Bay atop the NFC South when they play host to the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football.

This is already the fourth home game of the season for the Falcons (2-2), who claimed their first win at Mercedes-Benz Stadium against New Orleans last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Bucs (3-1) scored an impressive win in their lone road game to date, beating Detroit, 20-16, in Week 2.

It's an important early-season battle between rivals who will meet again in Tampa in just three weeks.

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Falcons are 2.5-point favorites at BetMGM, where the line had been 1.5 on Thursday morning. It shifted despite 63 percent of the spread-line money backing the Bucs. And Tampa Bay's +100 moneyline has been backed by 68 percent of the money, including a $15,000 wager placed at Bucs +102.

The line is 2.0 at DraftKings, with the public backing the Bucs with 52 percent of the money. The book also was seeing heavier action on Tampa Bay's moneyline, which has drawn 67 percent of the money at +100.

Both books had the Over/Under at 43.5 points on Thursday morning. By mid-day, it had shifted slightly to 44.0, with the Over backed by 63 percent of the money wagered.

The Falcons enter with an odd trend, as each of their past seven Thursday night games have gone under the total points line. They also have failed to cover the spread in seven consecutive games in which they entered as favorites against NFC South rivals.

PROP PICKS

--Bijan Robinson 25+ Receiving Yards (-175 at DraftKings): The second-year back leads the Falcons with 224 rushing yards and has added 135 more on 15 catches. Robinson has the fourth-most targets on the team with 16, and has produced at least 25 receiving yards in three of Atlanta's first four games. This has been the most popular player prop at the sportsbook.

--Mike Evans Anytime TD (+112 at BetRivers): Evans leads all player props at the book with 3.5 percent of the total bets backing him to reach the end zone Thursday night. He's also second with 1.9 percent of the total money. Evans scored twice in the season opener but went scoreless in two games before catching a touchdown against Philadelphia last week.

KEY STAT

Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown at least one interception in four consecutive home games, including each of his first three with Atlanta.

SERIES HISTORY

The franchises meet for the 62nd time, with the Bucs holding a slim 31-30 advantage thanks to winning six of the past eight meetings.

THE NEWS

The Bucs rebounded from a poor showing in Week 3, a 26-7 home loss to the Denver Broncos, with a convincing 33-16 win over Philadelphia. Baker Mayfield threw for 347 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Evans turned in his best showing of the season, hauling in eight catches for 94 yards and a score.

Ahead of a short week, Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles is preparing for a new-look Atlanta team.

"They're different offensively and defensively," Bowles said of the Falcons. "They're playing faster and they're playing with a lot more confidence. They've added quite a few new guys and they've got a lot of talent over there. They can beat you a bunch of different ways, so we've got to be on our P's and Q's."

One of the aforementioned "new guys" is Cousins, who threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns in a loss to Bowles and Tampa Bay last year as a member of the Minnesota Vikings.

"(Kirk) is a good football player," Bowles said. "We played him last year in Minnesota, but he's in a different offense this time. He's got a lot more weapons now than he had with just Justin Jefferson and a couple of guys there. He knows how to play the game; he runs the offense well. He knows where to go with the ball and how to get rid of the ball, so he presents a great challenge."

It's also a new-look sideline in Atlanta, as first-year coach Raheem Morris has taken over. However, Bowles is no stranger to what a Morris-led team will look like.

"(Raheem) grew up in the next town over from me in New Jersey, so I know him very well," Bowles said. "He's a heck of a coach and an outstanding guy. He's going to bring a lot of fire to those guys, and they'll be ready to play. ... It'll be a tough battle."

Aside from reuniting with his New Jersey counterpart, Morris will have many ties to his opponent on Thursday.

Morris served as a defensive assistant in Tampa Bay from 2002-05 and then again in 2007-08, before compiling a 17-31 record as the Buccaneers' coach from 2009-11.

Before his hiring in Atlanta, Morris was the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams, where Mayfield rejuvenated his career in 2022.

"I've got so much respect for Baker from when we had him in L.A., and he got a chance to revitalize what he had lost a little bit," Morris said. "I think Baker is going to do whatever it takes to try to win that football game. Right now, he's found a nice formula of getting the ball out of his hands, keeping the completions up. He's got some really good wideouts that he can get the ball to who can catch and run. If you can find a way to take away some of those things, and kind of force the issues or bad habits, I think that's the way you have to defend Baker."

Atlanta is coming off a 26-24 win over the Saints, in which Younghoe Koo blasted a 58-yard game-winning field goal with two seconds left. The Falcons are in the middle of a stretch of facing a division opponent in three straight games. They travel to Carolina next week.

INJURY REPORT

The Bucs on Wednesday ruled out All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) as well as right tackle Luke Goedeke (concussion), defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (calf) and wide receivers Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and Trey Palmer (concussion). Evans (knee/calf) was a limited participant on Wednesday, as were offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs (knee) and defensive lineman William Gholston (knee).

Nose tackle Vita Vea (knee), who was limited on Monday and Tuesday, was a full participant on Wednesday. Bowles said linebacker SirVocea Dennis (shoulder) will be placed on injured reserve.

For Atlanta, linebacker Troy Andersen was a no-show at practice on Monday and Tuesday with a knee injury. He led Atlanta with 10 tackles and had a pick-six Sunday vs. New Orleans. Running back Bijan Robinson (hamstring), offensive tackle Kaleb McGary (knee) and receiver Ray-Ray McCloud (ankle) were limited on Monday and Tuesday.

PREDICTION

The Falcons have alternated wins and losses this season, notching an important victory over New Orleans last Sunday. Each of their first four games have gone down to the wire, with the average scoring margin being only four points. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has steamrolled the likes of Washington and Philadelphia while adding the impressive win at Detroit. At this juncture of the season, the Bucs are the more complete -- and explosive -- team. --Buccaneers 27, Falcons 20

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The Paur Report

Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 5

Player Notes
Devin Singletary Oct 3 12:20pm CT
Devin Singletary

New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll said running back Devin Singletary (groin) will miss a second straight practice this week on Thursday. Singletary said he has a chance to play in Week 5 on the road against the Seattle Seahawks, but two straight days of DNPs says otherwise right now. He is going to need to practice on Friday to give himself a real shot at playing this weekend. The Giants are expected to be without star rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers (concussion) as well, so if Singletary cannot suit up, the G-Men will be missing two of their best offensive pieces. If Singletary does suit up this weekend, he should be considered a low-end RB2/high-end RB3/flex in fantasy against a Seahawks run defense that has been better so far in 2024. Rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. figures to see most of the backfield work for the Giants if Singletary is limited or ruled out entirely.

From RotoBaller

Rashee Rice Oct 3 12:20pm CT
Rashee Rice

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said that the team is waiting for swelling to be reduced in wide receiver Rashee Rice's injured right knee, and further tests are scheduled for next week. Rice injured his knee early in the Week 4 win over the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers, and initial fears were that the 24-year-old suffered a season-ending torn ACL. He has already been ruled out for Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints on Monday night, but the team has held off on officially ruling Rice out for the rest of 2024. For the time being, the Chiefs offense is without two of their best playmakers in Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco (leg), making things much more difficult for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. At least this Monday against the Saints, expect him to lean more on rookie Xavier Worthy and tight end Travis Kelce, while wideouts Justin Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster will also be more involved to help pick up the slack. Rice needs to be stashed in all leagues.

From RotoBaller

Jonathan Taylor Oct 3 12:10pm CT
Jonathan Taylor

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle) said he's still dealing with his ankle sprain and isn't likely to practice for the second straight day on Thursday. It's not a serious injury, but there is still a lot of uncertainty around his availability for Sunday's contest against the division-rival Jacksonville Jaguars. Two DNPs in a row is bad news for Taylor's fantasy managers leading into Week 5. If the 25-year-old is unable to get back on the practice field by Friday, he seems unlikely to be ready to play against the Jaguars this weekend. The good news, though, is that Taylor's ankle injury doesn't appear to be a multi-week issue, and it's definitely not as severe as the ankle issue that he dealt with in 2022. Taylor's injury has made Trey Sermon a popular waiver-wire pickup this week, as he'll operate as Indy's lead back on Sunday if Taylor is inactive.

From RotoBaller

Malik Nabers Oct 3 12:10pm CT
Malik Nabers

New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll said that rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers (concussion) is making progress in the league's concussion protocol, but he won't be on the practice field for the second straight day this week on Thursday. Daboll said the team will wait as long as possible before making a determination for his Week 5 status against the Seattle Seahawks, but time is obviously running low to clear the remaining steps. The Athletic's Dan Duggan doesn't see Nabers being cleared for Sunday. The Giants play in the late slate on Sunday as well, so this is shaping up as a situation to avoid for fantasy managers with Nabers being more of a long shot to play this weekend. It's a big blow for New York's offense, as Nabers currently leads the league with 35 receptions. Wan'Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt will all have elevated roles on Sunday in the passing game if Nabers is ruled out, as expected.

From RotoBaller

Aaron Rodgers Oct 3 9:13am CT
Aaron Rodgers

Dynasty | Davante Adams' preference is to be traded to the New York Jets. Dynasty Analysis: The Saints are also reportedly high on his list. Say what you will about Adams, but he clearly values friendships with quarterbacks as Derek Carr (Saints) and Aaron Rodgers (Jets) are the two he had the most success with. This should come as no surprise as speculation about Adams going to the Jets started nearly immediately after Derek Carr left Las Vegas and Aaron Rodgers was moved to New York. The Raiders are saying they'll take the best deal on the table, so this is far from a done deal. What does seem to be set is the fact Adams has likely played his last game for the Raiders. His dynasty value will hinge on where he lands.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Davante Adams Oct 3 9:00am CT
Davante Adams

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) would like to play for the Jets and be reunited with former teammate Aaron Rodgers, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. While Adams is open to other destinations, he would prefer to play for the Jets and team up with Rodgers after the duo formed a dynamic connection in Green Bay. Adams missed last week with a hamstring injury and did not practice on Wednesday. He has 18 catches for 209 yards and a touchdown so far this season. A move to the Jets would surely upgrade the fantasy value of the 31-year-old, as Rodgers and the Jets offense offer an upgrade over Gardner Minshew II and the Raiders' current offense. If Adams gets his wish, it looks like he will end up in New York, but there is still plenty to be worked out in a potential Adams deal.

From RotoBaller

Davante Adams Oct 3 8:53am CT
Davante Adams

Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams seems to have the Raiders ready to honor his trade request, and he will have input, but the team will ultimately go with the best offer. Adams prefers the New York Jets, but he hasn't demanded a trade to a specific team.

Fantasy Spin: Adams is expected to miss Week 5 with a hammy issue. Keep him stashed and stay tuned to where the WR1 might land.

From TheHuddle

Devin Singletary Oct 3 8:30am CT
Devin Singletary

New York Giants running back Devin Singletary (groin) sat out Wednesday's practice but said he has a chance to play in Week 5 against Seattle according to Jordan Raanan of ESPN. The running back will look to get back on the practice field in the next few days even if in a limited fashion to put him on track for returning on Sunday. Singletary has 56 carries for 221 yards and two rushing touchdowns on the season and ranks as the RB24 in fantasy at 10.6 fantasy points per game. Tyrone Tracy, Jr., and Eric Gray would stand to benefit if Singletary does miss Week 5. If Singletary does play, he should be a solid RB2 against a Seattle defense, which ranks middle of the pack against the run.

From RotoBaller

Malik Nabers Oct 3 8:20am CT
Malik Nabers

New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers (concussion) is unlikely to be ready for Week 5's game against Seattle according to Jordan Raanan of ESPN. Raanan says Nabers "seems like a longshot to be ready for Seattle". The talented rookie receiver suffered a concussion at the end of the Thursday night game against Dallas last week. He sat out Wednesday's practice and was reportedly still in the early stages of concussion protocol. Nabers' absence would be a big blow for his fantasy managers as he was off to a red-hot start to his NFL career with 35 catches for 386 yards and three touchdowns.

From RotoBaller

Matthew Adams Oct 3 2:03am CT
Matthew Adams

New York Giants LB Matthew Adams (quadriceps) was designated to return from the Reserve/Injured list on Wednesday, Oct. 2.

From TheHuddle

Angelo Blackson Oct 3 12:43am CT
Angelo Blackson

Arizona Cardinals DL Angelo Blackson (undisclosed) was placed on the practice squad injured list on Wednesday, Oct. 2.

From TheHuddle

Tyler Lockett Oct 2 11:50pm CT
Tyler Lockett

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett (thigh) was a limited participant on Wednesday. Given that the Seahawks only held a walkthrough, Lockett's participation status is merely an estimation. The reliable veteran receiver has caught 18 passes for 199 yards through four games, but he's still looking for his first touchdown of the 2024 season. Lockett's job has gotten tougher as DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba both continue to impress and earn more looks from quarterback Geno Smith. Lockett has seemingly fallen to the No. 3 role in Seattle and should be treated as a fantasy WR4 going forward.

From RotoBaller

Davante Adams Oct 2 11:20pm CT
Davante Adams

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) has left an impression on teams that he's "focused on engineering a trade to the Jets," according to Albert Breer of the MMQB. However, the Raiders have also fielded calls from the Bills and Steelers. Adams, who recently requested a trade and is expected to miss Week 5 with a hamstring injury, has expressed significant interest in reuniting with Aaron Rodgers, his quarterback in Green Bay who now commands the Jets' offense. Through three games this season, Adams has 18 catches, 209 yards, and one touchdown. He would give New York (or any other team) a productive, veteran pass-catching reinforcement early in the season. From a fantasy perspective, there are few situations less favorable than playing with Gardner Minshew II. Joining forces with someone like Rodgers could bump Adams back up to the mid-range WR1 tier.

From RotoBaller

Luke Musgrave Oct 2 9:10pm CT
Luke Musgrave

Green Bay Packers tight end Luke Musgrave (ankle) did not participate in Wednesday's team practice. The second-year tight end recorded two limited sessions last week while tending to a quad issue ahead of the Packers' 31-29 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. He would ultimately suit up for the contest -- playing 33% of snaps -- but the ankle injury is new. The fact that he was not designated as even a limited participant does not bode well for his status, but his value was trending in the wrong direction anyway, with teammate Tucker Kraft dominating the team's TE snaps 227-to-108. The former second-round pick will have two more opportunities to upgrade his participation before the team's final injury report is revealed. Green Bay has a tantalizing matchup this Sunday when they hit the road to take on a Los Angeles Rams team, allowing the second most points per game. Still, Musgrave can be avoided for fantasy purposes, even if he plays.

From RotoBaller

Cole Kmet Oct 2 8:50pm CT
Cole Kmet

Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet (knee) was listed as a limited participant on the team's first injury report of the week. The fifth-year tight end was the team's second-leading receiver (34 yards) in their 24-18 win over the Los Angeles Rams, participating in 90% of the snaps. He apparently picked up an injury sometime between now and then, though when and how severe it might be are currently unknown. It's a good sign for Kmet that he could at least get in a limited practice. The former second-round pick saw his usage spike in Week 3, with the team sans wide receiver Keenan Allen and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams attempting 52 passes. However, that came cratering back down upon the veteran wideout's return and a run-heavy game plan. He and the Bears will get a favorable matchup this Sunday at home against the Carolina Panthers. Despite this, Kmet will be an unrecommended volatile option.

From RotoBaller

Younghoe Koo Oct 2 8:30pm CT
Younghoe Koo

Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo had his best game of the season in Week 4 against the New Orleans Saints. Koo nailed field goals from 53, 44, 42, and 58 yards. He's one of the best kickers in the league and has been perfect during the season so far. He is now impressively 5-for-5 on field goals of 40+ yards. The 30-year-old will look to continue his hot streak against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday. He is capable of nailing kicks in the clutch, and given the nature of the Falcons offense, it's likely they may need his help again. It's tough to say how many opportunities he'll be afforded, as kicker production is one of the hardest things to predict in the NFL, but he can be trusted to consistently hit from long distances. Koo is a must-start in fantasy leagues with kickers. He has a history of success, and the offense has given him enough kicks to succeed in fantasy. He should be locked into lineups when the Falcons take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Thursday Night Football.

From RotoBaller

Tyler Allgeier Oct 2 8:30pm CT
Tyler Allgeier

Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier showed he deserves a more significant proportion of the Falcons' backfield opportunities when they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5. His performance in Week 4 was his best of the season. He turned just eight carries into 60 yards (7.5 yards per carry) and caught two passes for 20 yards, good for 10.0 PPR fantasy points. The backup running back is highly efficient, averaging 6.15 yards per carry, and had proven his ability to be a solid lead back through the last four games of 2022 before lead back Bijan Robinson (hamstring) was drafted. The Bucs have struggled to stop the run this year, too. Robinson has struggled so far, and Allgeier's runs have been much more successful on average. He shouldn't be started yet, but he is a must-have handcuff for Bijan managers and a fine speculative bench stash. Should Tyler's role continue to grow, he could be start-worthy at some point.

From RotoBaller

Breece Hall Oct 2 8:20pm CT
Breece Hall

Reporters again questioned New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh on Wednesday about the team's running back usage, but he might have hinted that not much will change moving forward. Specifically, Saleh was asked about rookie running back Braelon Allen and whether or not he'd be further integrated into New York's scheme. "He's already been integrated," said Saleh, "I feel like he gets a lot of run every week." The comments come a few days after the Jets head coach was suggested to use Allen more extensively in short-yardage and goal-line situations. He also remarked on how he believed Breece Hall's subpar performance against the Denver Broncos in Week 4 to be an "outlier" and credited the Broncos' defense for holding up. "Breece was batting 1.000 in goal-line situations this year. He's been doing great in short-yardage situations also." It would appear that fantasy managers can breathe a sigh of relief as the 20-year-old should not further eat into Hall's workload. Still, they must be disappointed at the division of touches thus far. He and the Jets will have another tough matchup this week when they take on the Minnesota Vikings in London.

From RotoBaller

Matt Prater Oct 2 8:10pm CT
Matt Prater

Arizona Cardinals kicker Matt Prater (knee) was listed as a non-participant for the team's first practice of the week on Wednesday. Evidently the 40-year-old veteran came out of Sunday's 42-14 loss to the Washington Commanders a bit dinged up. Interestingly enough, Arizona held tryouts last Friday for kickers Anders Carlson and Chad Ryland, while Prater did not garner a designation. The Cardinals signed Ryland to their practice squad on Wednesday. Prater will need to get in at least one limited session over the next few days to boost his chances of suiting up in Week 5. However, if he can't, it would seem that Ryland would appear in his stead. The journeyman kicker has yet to miss a field goal or extra point attempt this season. Arizona will hit the road to take on their division-rival San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Johnathan Hankins Oct 2 8:03pm CT
Johnathan Hankins

Seattle Seahawks DT Byron Murphy II (hamstring), LB Tyrel Dodson (ankle, shoulder), DT Johnathan Hankins (non-injury) and LB Boye Mafe (knee) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Oct. 2. TE Pharaoh Brown (foot, knee), TE Brady Russell (shoulder), LB Jerome Baker (hamstring), S Julian Love (thigh), LB Uchenna Nwosu (knee), DE Leonard Williams (ribs) and DT Cameron Young (knee) were limited during practice. OG Anthony Bradford (knee), LB Derick Hall (hip), S Rayshawn Jenkins (hand), LB Tyrice Knight (knee) and S K'Von Wallace (shoulder) fully participated in practice. The Seahawks did not hold a practice Wednesday, so the practice report is an estimation.

From TheHuddle