Fri Sep 6 8:20pm ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer
Week 25 is not a great week for projected two-start pitchers. Between off days and some teams closing out the season using a six-man rotation, we don’t have a ton of options on the horizon. With that being said, let’s highlight five pitchers who are currently lined up to start two times each and discuss what their matchups could mean for fantasy.
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners: vs. SD, vs. TEX
Kirby has made six of his last eight starts on the road. He hasn’t been great on the road, recording a 4.12 FIP and a 1.15 WHIP there this season. At home, he has a 2.15 FIP and a 1.05 WHIP. For his career, he has a 2.74 FIP and a 1.04 WHIP at home.
Kirby will have both of his starts in Week 25 at home, which provides a significant boost to his upside. The Padres are not an easy matchup, but the Rangers are compromised right now with Corey Seager (hip) on the injured list. Regardless of who he is facing, though, Kirby could shine in two home outings.
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians: at CWS, vs. TB
With Shane Bieber (elbow) out since April, Bibee has emerged as the ace of the Guardians. Bibee has a 3.56 ERA that is supported by a 3.55 FIP. He is missing more bats, increasing his strikeout rate from 24.1 percent last year to 26.5 percent this season. He has also shown improved control on his way to a 1.12 WHIP.
As far as favorable matchups go, it doesn’t get much better than what awaits Bibee. The White Sox have been historically bad on their way to scoring the fewest runs in baseball. They have scored 431 runs entering Friday. The next worst team is the Marlins, who have scored 528 runs. The Rays also struggle at the plate, scoring the third-fewest runs in baseball and striking out the sixth-most times. Deploy Bibee with confidence.
Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals: at NYY, at PIT
After a disastrous 2023 campaign, Singer has bounced back with a 3.35 ERA and a 3.61 FIP this season. One of his biggest areas of improvement has been lowering his hard-hit rate allowed to 39.6 percent, compared to 48.4 percent last season. While he’s still not blowing away hitters at the plate, his 22.6 percent strikeout rate is nearly four percentage points higher than last season.
As good as Singer has been this season, having both of his starts in Week 25 on the road is a concern. He has a 2.95 FIP and a 1.11 WHIP at home this season, but a 4.47 FIP and a 1.40 WHIP on the road. The Yankees have the dangerous duo of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in their lineup, while the Pirates have a .694 OPS at home, compared to a .653 OPS on the road. Singer is still worth starting in 12-team leagues because there aren’t many two-start pitchers this week, but fantasy managers might need to temper their expectations with regard to his results.
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals: vs. ATL, vs. MIA
Gore has pitched well lately, logging at least six innings and allowing two or fewer runs in each of his last three starts. During that span, he posted 19 strikeouts over 18 innings. Prior to that, he had allowed at least five runs in four of his previous five outings.
Gore’s 4.32 ERA for the season isn’t great, but his 3.56 FIP indicates that he hasn’t pitched that poorly. Part of the problem has been his unlucky .358 BABIP allowed, despite opponents having just a 38.0 percent hard-hit rate against him. The Braves’ lineup is compromised because of some key injuries and we already discussed the Marlins’ ineptitude at the plate. Don’t be afraid to take a chance on Gore this week.
Aaron Civale, Milwaukee Brewers: at SF, at ARI
Last year, Civale allowed only 12 home runs over 122.1 innings. In 140.1 innings this season, he has already been taken deep 25 times. His ERA sits at 4.62 and it’s supported by an equally poor 4.68 FIP. To compound matters for fantasy managers, Civale doesn’t provide much in the way of strikeouts with his 22.1 percent strikeout rate.
Facing the Giants in San Francisco isn’t exactly scary, but taking on the Diamondbacks in Arizona is horrifying. They have the highest home OPS in baseball and the fourth-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers. With regards to Civale’s inability to keep hitters inside the ballpark, the Diamondbacks have slugged the seventh-most home runs in baseball. The Diamondbacks start alone makes Civale someone to avoid in most formats.
Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.