Lineup Prep: Week 11

Wed Nov 13 8:58am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Ridley is producing big numbers

Before I get to my random thoughts for the week, I just want to remind you all that there are some big-time bye weeks coming up. We have four teams on a bye this week. There are six teams on a by in Week 12 and six more on Week 14. Just be prepared. There are some big-time teams off. And we are at a crucial point of the season where teams are fighting for playoff spots, so everything matters so much. Get those bye-week replacements ready. As always, a proactive owners is a winning owner.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

The Bears are an absolute mess right now. I really thought that offense was going to be good this year, but I would be worried if I had any of those pieces on my fantasy roster. I’m not sure an offensive coordinator change is going to fix things. I think they need a whole new coaching philosophy to be put in place. Caleb Williams has not played well at all despite having all sorts of offensive weapons to work with. If you compare rookies Bo Nix and Drake Maye to Williams, these guys have so much less talent to work with but both are playing much, much better than Williams. Something just isn’t right in Chicago. Not good.

The fantasy quarterback position hasn’t been nearly as deep as I thought it would be this year. I really thought this was a great year to wait on a quarterback and platoon two guys based on matchups. I’m not sure that strategy is working, though. Fantasy quarterbacks after the elite guys have been really hit or miss. Maybe they will start to show more consistency going forward, but I wouldn’t count on it. You have to wonder if defenses are catching up with these prolific passing attacks a little.

It is exciting to see Bijan Robinson living up to his potential this year. The coaching staff is doing a better job of using him, but I’m still not sure it has been perfect. Tyler Allgeier is still getting more work than you would hope, especially around the goal line. Allgeier got stuffed three times at the goal line last week. They take him out and put in Robinson, who scores on his first carry. It is just a little baffling how these Falcons coaching staffs continue to use Robinson. Things are better this year but could be even better. And even with that said, Robinson is fourth overall in fantasy running back scoring and posting big weekly numbers.

NFL kickers are absolutely amazing these days. They had a stat on the Monday night game that stated kickers are 70 percent accurate on kicks of 50-plus yards this season. That is nuts. It used to be a feat for a kicker to make a 50-yard field goal but now it is a big shock if they miss. These guys have really perfected the art of kicking. It is pretty amazing to watch.

Hopefully, you weren’t an owner that dropped tight end Mark Andrews after his terrible start. He is playing more and producing. He has 14-plus fantasy points four of five games. Andrews is eighth overall in fantasy tight end scoring. This guy has been an elite tight end for years and seems to have regained that form. I’m still not sure what was going on earlier this season, but that seems a thing of the past now. Things are looking much better for Andrews.

If I were the Cowboys, I just roll with Trey Lance as my starting quarterback going forward. This team is going nowhere, so why not see what you have in Lance. He certainly is a talented player that has looked the part at times while starting in the NFL. Cooper Rush is going to be a career backup in my view, so give the talented Lance a shot to see what you have in him.

I was a little surprised to see the Panthers sign Hubbard to a long-term contract. He is having a great season and looks to be a legit starting NFL back, but Jonathan Brooks is waiting in the wings for carries. Brooks is a super-talented rookie that was expected to take this backfield over once he is recovered from his torn ACL. Maybe the Panthers don’t like what they have been with Brooks, though, so that is why the signed Hubbard. Who knows? I hope that is the case because they just used a lot of money on a running back, which isn’t the norm in the NFL these days.

News and Notes: The Seahawks released linebacker Tyrel Dodson on Monday. This was a surprise as Dodson had started every game of the season. The Dolphins claimed Dodson off waivers on Tuesday. . . . .The Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron on Tuesday. Assistant coach Thomas X. Brown will take over the offensive coordinator duties for the Bears.

HOT PLAYS

C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans. Stroud has not been much of a help to fantasy teams in recent weeks. He has fewer than 18 fantasy points four straight games. He showed some signs of life against a good Lions team last week, throwing for 232 yards and a touchdown. Remember, he has been without his top receiver the last several weeks. Well, Nico Collins is expected back this week, which should be a big boost for Stroud. Look for him to have his best game in several weeks this week against the Cowboys. Dallas is a mess right now and allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs. This week might be the last for Hunt to start with Isiah Pacheco nearing a return. But as long as Hunt is starting, he has huge fantasy value in this offense. Hunt has double-digit fantasy points every single game this season. He had a season-high seven receptions last week on 10 targets. He has 17-plus points four of five games. Hunt just gets it done as the starter for the Chiefs. He should get a big workload this week against a bad Bills rush defense. Buffalo allows the second most fantasy points to running backs.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Titans. Apparently, all that Ridley needed to get going was DeAndre Hopkins to get traded. Ridley has been as good as any fantasy receiver in the game in recent weeks. Ridley is fourth overall in fantasy scoring his last three games. He has 23-plus points two of those games. He has been targeted at least eight times five straight, getting a lot of weekly looks. He has become a must start, especially this week against the Vikings. Minnesota allows the third most fantasy points to receivers and ranks 26th overall against the pass.

Breece Hall, RB, Jets. Hall has been a disappointment this year. He isn’t having that monster season many thought he would have. He is 11th overall in fantasy running back scoring, though, so it isn’t all bad for him. He has produced some big games. Hall has three games with 20-plus fantasy points. We like his chances for one of those big games this week against the Colts, rewarding those fantasy owners that used a top-five pick on him. Indianapolis is 30th against the run, allowing 148.3-rushing yards per game. Look for Hall to get a big workload in this one.

Cedric Tillman, WR, Browns. Tillman is another player red hot since the trade of a player. He is second overall in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games. Tillman has 18-plus fantasy points three straight games. He has been targeted 32 times those three games. He is the favorite target of Jameis Winston and producing huge in that role. Tillman should keep it up in Week 11 against the Saints. New Orleans allows the 11th most fantasy points to receivers and ranks just 29th overall against the pass.

COLD PLAYS

Jordan Love, QB, Packers. Love has not been great in recent weeks. He has fewer than 15 fantasy points two straight games, which came against two teams that had been struggling against the pass (Jaguars, Lions). It seems his knee injury is slowing him some. And now he gets the Bears this week, a team that has a great pass defense. Chicago allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks seventh overall against the pass. If you have better options, go with them in Week 11.

Tony Pollard, RB, Titans. Tyjae Spears finally returned from injury last week and put a huge dent in Pollard’s playing time. Pollard played a season-low 54 percent of the snaps. He pretty much split the work with Spears, which was kind of expected before the season. This limits the ceiling of Pollard, though. He had 13 touches for 63 yards last week. Pollard could have a similar performance this week against the Vikings. Minnesota is terrible against the pass but do very well against the run. The Vikings allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs and rank second overall against the run.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Chargers. Gus Edwards returned to the lineup last week and cut into the playing time of Dobbins. Dobbins played 66 percent of the snaps, his lowest total since Week 3 of the season. Dobbins also failed to hit double-digit fantasy points last week, making it two times in four games. He has been a tad more hit-or-miss lately. It would not surprise to see him have another ho-hum game against the Bengals in Week 11. Cincinnati allows the eighth fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders. Meyers has emerged as the top target at receiver for the Raiders with Davante Adams gone. He has played well in that role, having 14 receptions on 18 targets his last two games. He is getting it done. But even with that said, Meyers probably isn’t a matchup-proof fantasy play. He gets a very good Dolphins secondary this week, a secondary that just held the Rams in check last week. Miami allows the seventh fewest fantasy points to receivers and ranks eighth overall against the pass.

Josh Downs, WR, Colts. Downs has been great since his return from injury in Week 3. He has 12-plus fantasy points six of seven games. He was targeted 10 times last week and has at least nine targets three straight. We worry about him this week despite those great numbers, though. Joe Flacco has not played well in recent weeks and now gets a very good Jets defense. He could struggle once again, which isn’t great news for Downs. New York allows the fewest fantasy points to receivers and is second overall against the pass.

SLEEPERS

Russell Wilson, QB, Steelers. Wilson has been great since getting inserted into the Steelers starting lineup. He is 10th in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games. Wilson has 21-plus fantasy points two of three games. He had his first three-touchdown game of the season last week. Wilson is a legit fantasy play right now, especially this week against the Ravens. Baltimore has been horrible against the pass all season, allowing the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks while ranking dead last against the pass.

Gabe Davis, WR, Jaguars. Davis is a hard player to trust, especially if Mac Jones is starting at quarterback, but he is always capable of the big game. He also played the most snaps of any Jaguars receiver last week. He was targeted four times in the game and caught a pass for 19 yards. Trevor Lawrence could return this week and Davis has a prime matchup against the Lions. These are two big positives for Davis, giving him some spot start potential. Detroit allows the second most fantasy points to receivers.

Will Dissly, TE, Chargers. Dissly has become the top tight end for the Chargers. He had five receptions last week and has at least five catches three of four games. His floor is pretty solid right now in an offense that is throwing the ball better. We like him to have another solid game this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati has struggled to stop the tight end this year, allowing the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends. The Bengals also are just 23rd overall against the pass.

Jaylen Wright, RB, Dolphins. Wright played more snaps than Raheem Mostert last week and was in the game at crucial times late, showing the Dolphins have faith in his abilities. He could be getting more work going forward. Wright has at least five carries five of six games. If he gets that much work this week against the Raiders, he could do a little damage. Las Vegas is brutal against the run, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to running backs. Wright could be a sneaky play for fantasy teams.

Jameson Williams, WR, Lions. Williams returned from his suspension last week and played his usual number of snaps (74 percent). He didn’t have a huge game but was solid, catching three passes for 53 yards on five targets. Remember, he had 14-plus fantasy points four of his first five games this season. He is capable of the huge game any given week. We think one of those games could come this week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is playing better defensively lately but still allows the sixth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks just 30th against the pass.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Commanders/Eagles, Ravens/Steelers, Seahawks/49ers, Chiefs/Bills.

Low Scoring Games: Vikings/Titans, Packers/Bears.

Byes: Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, Bucs.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 11

The Paur Report