Lineup Prep: Week 12

Wed Nov 20 9:02am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Conner can have big Week 12


It is really crazy to me that there are just a few weeks left in the regular fantasy season. The seasons seem to go faster and faster every season, especially as I get older. So take some time to enjoy the ride every year. Fantasy football is a great game and release from your everyday life. Don’t take it for granted. I know things don’t always go your way in fantasy land, but it is still enjoyable to participate and makes your Sundays a lot more interesting. Hopefully, things are trending well for you in 2024. We are in the home stretch.

Now for my random thoughts for the week . . . .

The Miami Dolphins can pop their champagne once again with the Chiefs losing last week. It was bound to happen to the Chiefs, though. Kansas City played a lot of close games and still seems to be lacking something offensively right now. Patrick Mahomes just isn’t playing at his same elite level as usual for him. I think he will find it, but Mahomes and the offense just don’t seem in synch right now.

I really don’t think Jayden Daniels is healthy right now. I think his rib injury is a lot worse than what he is leading on. He just isn’t taking the chances down the field anymore. He just dinked and dunked down the field last week, throwing for just 191 yards despite throwing the ball 32 times. I think it will come out after the season is over, but Daniels is dealing with something that is slowing him down. He doesn’t look like the same quarterback from earlier this season.

The Jets are a complete dumpster fire right now. You have to wonder if they are having buyer’s remorse on Aaron Rodgers. He has thrown for less than 200 yards two straight and still doesn’t have a 300-yard game this season. It seems his best days are behind him. It might have been smarter for the Jets to address the quarterback position in this past year’s deep class of quarterbacks. New York could be set back for a few more seasons once again.

It pains me to see Chris Godwin still ranked 12th overall among fantasy receivers. He hasn’t played the last three games but still ranks that high. He was having some sort of season before his ankle injury. I took him in nearly every one of my leagues. Oh, what could have been? I will enjoy the time I had with Godwin this year.

Rookie tight end Brock Bowers sure looks to be a fantasy force for years to come. I thought it would be hard for any fantasy tight end to top Sam LaPorta’s rookie season, but Bowers is going to do that. And doesn’t have Jared Goff throwing him passes. Just imagine what Bowers will start doing when a competent quarterback is on his side. This guy is a legit star.

With so many kickers having huge seasons and making 50-plus yard kicks look easy, I didn’t expect to see Justin Tucker to be a fantasy disappointment. He is struggling, though, especially with the longer kicks. You just don’t normally see that with him. Tucker has already missed six field goals this season. He has not missed more than six fields in a season since 2015. The good news is his fantasy production is still solid, but it would look a lot better if not for the struggles from long distance.

Jameis Winston is just another prime example of why NFL teams should take the backup quarterback spot very seriously. Winston has looked great in a starting role. I don’t get why more NFL teams don’t have top, quality backup like Winston. If you are the Cowboys right now, would you rather have Cooper Rush or Winston? Or maybe you are the Giants, would Winston look better than Daniel Jones? If I were a general manager, I would make it a priority to have a more than competent backup on my roster. It just makes too much sense to me.

I like the way the Dolphins are trending right now. They are getting healthy and playing some good football on both sides of the ball. I think their offense is going to really get going in the coming weeks. Tyreek Hill can still salvage his season. I know he has really disappointed to date, but a lot of things were working against him. I’m not sure I feel the same way about Jaylen Waddle, though. He just isn’t getting the consistent work and produced similar disappointing number last year.

News and Notes: The Chiefs signed receiver Tyquan Thornton on Tuesday. Kansas City is taking a chance on the talented receiver that was just let go by the Patriots. . . . .The Jets fired general manager Joe Douglas on Tuesday. New York continues to overhaul things in their organization. The firing of Douglas could signal the end of Aaron Rodgers in New York.

HOT PLAYS

Bo Nix, QB, Broncos. Nix is eighth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games and 11th overall for the season. He has 30-plus fantasy points two of four games and is coming off his best game of the season. Nix threw for 307 yards and four touchdowns against the Falcons in Week 11. Expect another big game this week against the Raiders, a team he had three touchdowns against in Week 5. The Raiders allow the eighth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Nix is a top-10 play once again this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots. Stevenson had another solid game last week, finishing with 89 total yards and four catches. He scored 12.9 fantasy points. He has 20-plus fantasy points two of four games in the emerging Patriots offense. Stevenson should get a heavy workload this week against a Dolphins team that is good against the pass but struggles to stop the run. Stevenson had a touchdown and 92 total yards against Miami in Week 5. He scored 19.2 fantasy points in that game. Miami allows the ninth most fantasy points to running backs.

James Conner, RB, Cardinals. Conner had his best fantasy game of the season his last time out, scoring 22.3 fantasy points against a good Jets defense. He has at least 14 fantasy points four straight games, posting very consistent numbers in the Cardinals offense. He has 100-yard rushing games two of four. Conner should do well again this week against a Seahawks team that allows the 11th most fantasy points to running backs.

Josh Downs, WR, Colts. Downs showed last week he can still produce big with Anthony Richardson as his starting quarterback. Downs had five receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. He has 12-plus fantasy points four straight games. Downs is up to 21st overall in fantasy receiver scoring. He just keeps getting it done. And remember, he missed the first two games of the season. Downs has a matchup for success this week, getting the Lions. Detroit is 27th against the pass compared to fifth against the rush.

Malik Nabers, WR, Giants. We don’t think the addition of Tommy DeVito to the starting lineup is a bad thing for Nabers. He can’t be worse than Daniel Jones, right? Nabers continues to rack up the targets despite all the offensive woes for the Giants, though. He has double-digit targets three straight games and reached double-digit fantasy points all of those games. We like him to perform better this week in a game the Giants could have to throw more often. Nabers gets the Bucs, a team that allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers but has been stout against the run.

COLD PLAYS

Sam Darnold, QB, Vikings. Darnold got it going again last week, scoring three touchdowns against a good Titans pass defense. He played much better than the past few games, but he still isn’t a sure thing at this point. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of six games. Darnold has been more hit or miss since a hot start, showing he might not be the long-term option at the position for the Vikings. We think another one of those down games could come this week against the Bears. Chicago allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks ninth overall against the pass.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears. Swift played a season-low 57 percent of the snaps last week, seeing backup Roschon Johnson getting more playing time. A new offensive coordinator could be limiting the load of Swift a little going forward. Swift did score a touchdown last week but his overall numbers were a little down. He has fewer than 75-rushing yards three straight games. It could be tough sledding for him this week against the Vikings, especially if he gets a few less touches. Minnesota allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and ranks first overall against the run, allowing just 74.4-rushing yards per game.

Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers. You would have thought Samuel would see his touches increase with Brandon Aiyuk done for the season. That hasn’t really been the case, though. Jauan Jennings has been the biggest benefactor of the Aiyuk injury. Samuel scored just 6.2 fantasy points last week and averages just 5.6 targets per game this year, his lowest total since his rookie season. Samuel plays the Packers this week, a team that allows the 10th fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Tucker Kraft, TE, Packers. Kraft is still seventh overall in fantasy tight end scoring but has cooled the last few weeks. He didn’t catch a pass last week and had just a target in the game. He has just four catches his last two games and failed to hit double-digit fantasy points either of those games. He is hard to trust right now, especially this week against the 49ers. San Francisco has done well against the tight end, allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Go with safer options.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers. Hubbard has been great this year, ranking ninth overall in fantasy running back scoring. He has two straight games with 20-plus fantasy points and had a season-high 153-rushing yards his last game. We might temper expectations for him this week, though. He is tough to bench because of his consistency - just don’t expect him to top 20 points once again in Week 12. Hubbard gets a great Chiefs run defense this week. Kansas City has allowed more than 100-rushing yards just three times all year. The Chiefs allow the fewest fantasy points to running backs and are third overall against the run, allowing just 85.3-rushing yards per game.

SLEEPERS

Austin Ekeler, RB, Commanders. Brian Robinson returned last week but that didn’t slow Ekeler from having another good showing. He got a ton of looks in the passing game, catching a season-high eight passes for 89 yards. Jayden Daniels doesn’t look healthy and is struggling to complete passes down the field, so look for Ekeler to continue to get a workout in the passing game. He has 17-plus fantasy points three straight games. Ekeler should have another good game against a reeling Cowboys team this week. Dallas allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs.

Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers. Johnston has touchdowns three straight games. He is a top red zone target for the Chargers and getting more looks than ever in a Chargers passing game that is starting to click. Johnston had a season-high eight targets last week. It would not surprise to see Johnston find the end zone again this week against the Ravens. Baltimore has struggled against the pass nearly all season and allows the most fantasy points to receivers.

Rome Odunze, WR, Bears. Odunze is becoming a bigger part of the Bears passing game. He had double-digit targets last week for just the second time this season. He had six catches for 65 yards on 10 targets. Oduzne has double-digit fantasy points two of three games. Oduzne could rack up double-digit looks again this week against the Vikings. Minnesota is very good against the run but ranks just 28th overall against the pass. The Vikings allow the third most fantasy points to receivers.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles. Goedert can be a boom-or-bust fantasy play but showing more consistency since his return from injury. He has double-digit fantasy points two straight games. He had five catches for 61 yards on five targets last week. Goedert can keep up his good ways this week against the Rams. Los Angeles allows the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends and ranks just 22nd overall against the pass.

Elijah Moore, WR, Browns. Moore is another Browns receiver that has flourished since the insertion of Jameis Winston as the Browns starting quarterback. He has double-digit fantasy points three of four games. He scored his first touchdown of the season last week, catching six passes for 66 yards and a score. Moore has at least eight targets three straight. Look for him to keep it up this week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has a good defense but if you are going to have success against them, it will be throwing the ball. The Steelers are fourth overall against the run, allowing just 90.8-rushing yards per game.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Cardinals/Seahawks, 49ers/Packers, Eagles/Rams.

Low Scoring Games: Titans/Texans, Vikings/Bears.

Byes: Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, Jets.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Starts, Sits, Sleepers: Week 5

Player Notes
Will Dissly Oct 3 7:30pm ET
Will Dissly

Los Angeles Chargers tight ends Will Dissly (knee) and Tucker Fisk (toe) are both listed as questionable for the Week 5 game on Sunday at SoFi Stadium against the visiting Washington Commanders, according to Eric Smith of Chargers.com. Dissly missed the team's last two games with his knee injury and was limited in practice all week, so he could be a true game-time decision to play this weekend. If he's forced to miss another game, rookie Oronde Gadsden would become intriguing as a TE2 streamer in fantasy against a Commanders defense that hasn't really been able to slow anyone down through the air through the first four weeks of the season. Dissly entered the season as the favorite for TE1 duties in L.A., but he drew just two targets in two games before getting hurt. He should stay on the waiver wire in most fantasy leagues, even if he returns against Washington.

From RotoBaller

DeVonta Smith Oct 3 7:30pm ET
DeVonta Smith

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith has struggled through the first quarter of this season, tallying just one touchdown and 158 receiving yards thus far-and his journey won't get any easier in Week 5 as he lines up against the Broncos. What's especially worrying about Smith is that he was thrown to just twice in his most recent performance, which sets a new season-low for him after having three targets in the season opener. He has built a reputation as a boom-or-bust WR, and should be seen as a risky WR3 candidate against a Denver defense allowing 186 yards per game through the air.

From RotoBaller

Dallas Goedert Oct 3 7:30pm ET
Dallas Goedert

Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (knee) was not on the Friday injury report and seems ready to play on Sunday. Goedert has three scores over his last two games since returning from injury, hauling in two in the first half last week against the Buccaneers. Goedert has been one of the most consistent and reliable players at his position so far this season and is the only player on Philly's roster with multiple receiving touchdowns. He matches up against one of the league's best defenses in Week 5 as the Broncos visit Philly. Denver allows the sixth-least amount of fantasy points to TEs through four games this year, but Goedert has proven himself as one of Jalen Hurts' favorite targets. He's a solid TE1 this week.

From RotoBaller

Jake Elliott Oct 3 7:30pm ET
Jake Elliott

Philadelphia Eagles kicker Jake Elliott didn't put a ton of points on the board last Sunday against the Buccaneers, but he did stay perfect on the season by making his lone field goal attempt and all four of his extra points. While Elliott is still yet to miss this season, it's not necessarily translating to much fantasy value. He faces the Denver Broncos in Week 5, a defense tied for second-best in the league in terms of opponent points per game (16.8). For right now, there are likely better kickers available in most fantasy leagues.

From RotoBaller

AJ Dillon Oct 3 7:20pm ET
AJ Dillon

Philadelphia Eagles running back A.J. Dillon was the lead backup for Saquon Barkley against the Buccaneers, being on the field for 14% of snaps and carrying the ball three times for 17 yards. Anyone in the Philly backfield not named Barkley remains irrelevant in fantasy, especially against a Denver Broncos defense allowing less than 100 rushing yards per game. Jalen Hurts will continue to take up a good amount of rush attempts as well, so Dillon is at best a handcuff option for if Barkley goes down. He should not see lineups in Week 5.

From RotoBaller

A.J. Brown Oct 3 7:20pm ET
A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown managers were having flashbacks to the first two weeks of the season this past Sunday, as the Eagles wide receiver put up another lackluster statline despite getting plenty of looks. It's encouraging to see Brown get at least eight targets in each of his last three outings, but he's still only had one truly productive game. His Week 4 matchup against the Broncos may prove difficult, as Denver allows the seventh-least amount of points to opposing fantasy WRs. Of course, there's star cornerback Patrick Surtain II to worry about as well. It's getting harder to start Brown each week, but as long as he keeps getting the bulk of targets, he should be in lineups. Consider him a fine WR2 this weekend.

From RotoBaller

Puka Nacua Oct 3 7:13pm ET
Puka Nacua

Dynasty | Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua had ten catches for 85 yards and a touchdown in a loss to the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: Nacua now has posted at least ten catches in four of five games this season. It's a ridiculous (and NFL record) pace that even he will have a hard time keeping up with. Regardless, he's putting together a fantasy MVP-level season and is showing no signs of slowing down. Nacua is an untouchable player in dynasty leagues with his value more than some entire rosters.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Kendrick Bourne Oct 3 7:13pm ET
Kendrick Bourne

Dynasty | 49ers wide receiver Kendrick Bourne had ten catches for 142 yards in a win against the Rams. Dynasty Analysis: Considering Bourne had just 8 catches on 13 targets for a total of 87 yards in his first three games, this was a shock even with the 49ers running out of healthy bodies. This will undoubtedly go down as his best game of the year but it also puts him back on the short-term roster radar. If you had to use him as a dart throw this week, you hit a bullseye.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Mac Jones Oct 3 7:13pm ET
Mac Jones

Dynasty | 49ers quarterback Mac Jones completed 33-of-49 passes for 342 yards with two touchdowns no interceptions in a win against the Rams. Dynasty Analysis: Say what you will about his tenure in New England but Jones has looked more than capable in three starts this year, throwing for 905 yards with six touchdowns and just one interception so far. He was extraordinary in this one, showing a lot of heart while hobbling around and basically playing on one good leg. Jones is no threat to Brock Purdy but he's clearly making the league think twice about giving up on him so quickly.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Saquon Barkley Oct 3 7:10pm ET
Saquon Barkley

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley has failed to eclipse 50 rushing yards in each of his last two games, and will face another hurdle this Sunday against the Broncos. Denver is allowing 99.3 rushing yards per game this season-just one of 11 teams to average under 100. They also stifled Bengals RB Chase Brown on Monday, keeping him to 40 yards on 10 carries with his longest attempt going for six yards. However, Philly does have a much stronger offensive line than Cincinnati does, and Barkley averages more yards per carry (3.1) than Brown (2.3). Even with a couple things going against him, Barkley remains a definitive RB1 for Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Miles Sanders Oct 3 7:10pm ET
Miles Sanders

Dallas Cowboys running back Miles Sanders (ankle, knee) missed practice all week and carries a questionable tag into Sunday's game against the hosting New York Jets at Met Life Stadium on Sunday. Although the team has not ruled Sanders out, he's not expected to suit up this weekend. Not that he was much of a flex play to begin with in fantasy lineups, but Sanders should not be counted on versus New York. With the 28-year-old unlikely to be available in Week 5, rookie Jaydon Blue is expected to be active for the first time this year -- Blue was a healthy inactive for the first four weeks. Sanders, in his first year in Dallas, has served in a change-of-pace role behind starter Javonte Williams so far, rushing for 117 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries (5.9 yards per tote). He has added eight catches for 30 yards. There's no guarantee Sanders will be available for Week 6 against the Carolina Panthers if he's unable to play this weekend.

From RotoBaller

Tony Pollard Oct 3 7:00pm ET
Tony Pollard

Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard has seen a fairly heavy workload through the first four games of the season. Pollard has carried the ball 14 times or more every game, but he could see his workload decrease going forward. Fellow back Tyjae Spears (ankle) is currently questionable for the Week 5 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Spears has been out all season long, but appears to be almost ready to go. Pollard will likely see less carries once Spears returns. Until then, Pollard figures to remain the workhorse back in Tennessee. Pollard has rushed for 60 yards or more in three of his first four games of the season. The status of Spears could shift his value, but for now Pollard has flex appeal for Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Jalen Hurts Oct 3 7:00pm ET
Jalen Hurts

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts did not complete a pass in the second half of his game against the Buccaneers, yet still put up a respectable fantasy performance by throwing for two early touchdowns. Week 4 marked his third game with multiple scores, and his third time this season rushing for 40 or more yards. But, Hurts will have his toughest challenge yet in his upcoming contest against the Broncos. Denver's defense gives up just 16.8 points per game-tied for second-best in the league-and they're allowing the fifth-least points to opposing QBs in fantasy. Fortunately, the game is in Philly instead of Mile High, and Hurts has given managers no reason to bench him thus far. He's a high-end QB1 in Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Cam Ward Oct 3 6:50pm ET
Cam Ward

Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback Cameron Ward has experienced an ugly beginning to his professional career. Ward has been held to 175 passing yards or less in three of the first four games of the season. The 23-year-old looked lost last week when he completed 10-of-26 passing attempts for 108 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception in the loss. The potential is certainly there, but something big needs to change in Tennessee. That being said, Ward is an extremely risky fantasy option for the upcoming Week 5 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals.

From RotoBaller

Xavier Legette Oct 3 6:40pm ET
Xavier Legette

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Xavier Legette (hamstring) is back in action for the Week 5 matchup against the Miami Dolphins. Legette will return this weekend after a two-game absence due to a hamstring injury. The targets have been there for Legette, but the 24-year-old has been unable to make an impact. Through two games, Legette has hauled in four of his 15 targets for eight yards this season. The Panthers offense isn't having much success right now. Legette clearly needs to build more chemistry with quarterback Bryce Young. Legette is worth a stash in certain formats, but isn't worth a start for Week 5.

From RotoBaller

Cameron Dicker Oct 3 6:40pm ET
Cameron Dicker

Los Angeles Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker remains a strong fantasy option with a high floor, despite only having one field goal attempt in the team's recent loss. Dicker is still perfect on all his field goal attempts (eight) and extra points this season, reinforcing his status as matchup-proof. The Chargers' offense is widely expected to bounce back at home against a vulnerable Washington Commanders defense, leading to multiple scoring drives and more field goal opportunities than in their previous game. RotoBaller projects Dicker as K6 this week. Fantasy managers should trust this potent offense to rebound and can confidently start Dicker in their lineups.

From RotoBaller

Keenan Allen Oct 3 6:30pm ET
Keenan Allen

Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen aims to turn volume into production in Week 5 against the Washington Commanders after catching just five passes for 37 yards against the New York Giants. Despite the underwhelming performance, the veteran had seven targets and will face a favorable matchup against Commanders cornerback Trey Amos. The Commanders' secondary is one of the worst in the league, ranking 27th in passing yards allowed per game. RotoBaller moves Allen up to WR15 this week. He remains a borderline WR2 and a strong start in all formats, especially PPR leagues, due to the expected high passing volume. However, managers should monitor his performance over the next few weeks, as aging veterans often start the season productive but tend to decline as the season progresses.

From RotoBaller

Tetairoa McMillan Oct 3 6:30pm ET
Tetairoa McMillan

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (calf) is cleared to suit up for the upcoming Week 5 matchup against the Miami Dolphins. The rookie wideout was a bit banged up this week, but is fine for this weekend. It has been a slow start to the season for McMillan. He hauled in four of his eight targets for 62 yards in the loss to the New England Patriots last week. The good news is, McMillan has seen eight targets or more in every game this season. Sadly, McMillan only surpassed 70 receiving yards in a single game once so far. The Panthers offense isn't clicking right now, which is going to limit McMillan's value. Fantasy managers should consider McMillan a high-end WR3 for this weekend.

From RotoBaller

Quentin Johnston Oct 3 6:30pm ET
Quentin Johnston

Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston is now firmly established as the team's top wideout entering Week 5, leading in targets, receiving yards, and touchdowns. The former first-round pick was one of the few bright spots in the team's first loss to the New York Giants, catching eight of 11 targets for 98 yards and his fourth touchdown of the season. Johnston now faces a vulnerable Washington Commanders secondary in a prime home matchup. He is expected to draw coverage from CB Marshon Lattimore, but the Commanders' overall passing defense has been significantly exposed, ranking 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed. RotoBaller upgrades Johnston to WR12 this week. Given his target volume and big-play ability, he is a borderline WR1 and a must-start in all formats.

From RotoBaller

Omarion Hampton Oct 3 6:20pm ET
Omarion Hampton

Los Angeles Chargers rookie running back Omarion Hampton has firmly established himself as the Chargers' workhorse after his impressive performance against the New York Giants. Hampton handled the majority of snaps (89%) and rushed 12 times for 128 yards, including a 54-yard touchdown, while adding five catches for 37 yards. The Washington Commanders are stronger against the run than the pass, but they remain vulnerable on the road, allowing 131.5 rushing yards per game away from home. Although star tackle Joe Alt (ankle) is out, the expected return of veteran guard Mekhi Becton (concussion) adds interior stability. RotoBaller projects Hampton as RB7 for this week. Considering his workload, increased targets, and pass-catching skills, he is a solid RB1 and a must-start in all formats.

From RotoBaller