RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 18

Fri Jan 3 2:00pm ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Goff is playing his best football

Week 18 brings plenty of craziness to DFS. The key will be determining which players will actually take the field. With so many teams having nothing left to play for, we could see a lot of starters play limited snaps or get the week off completely. With that in mind, here are some players to consider for your lineups, as well as a few to potentially avoid.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff, DET vs. MIN ($6,800): The Lions will battle the Vikings on Sunday Night Football. The winner claims not only the NFC North, but also the top seed in the NFC. Goff has produced four straight games with at least 283 passing yards and three touchdowns. In what should be a high-scoring affair, Goff comes with a high floor in DFS.

Bryce Young, CAR at ATL ($5,800): Young threw for just 203 yards last week against the Buccaneers, but he did have two passing touchdowns. That marked his second straight game with two passing touchdowns. The Falcons have struggled to defend the pass, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. That makes Young a potential bargain at his cheap salary.

Player to Avoid

Josh Allen, BUF at NE ($7,900): Despite the Bills being locked into the second seed in the AFC, Allen is expected to start this game. The reason is that he has a consecutive games played streak that he wants to keep alive. Don’t expect him to be in this game for long. He might not even last more than one series.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, ATL vs. CAR ($8,500): Robinson has scored two touchdowns in each of his last two games. Over his last seven games, he has scored eight touchdowns. During that span, he received at least 20 carries in a game five times. Expect him to be busy again versus the Panthers, who have allowed the most fantasy points per game to running backs in the league.

Michael Carter, ARI vs. SF ($4,700): The Cardinals will play their final game of the season without James Conner (knee) and Trey Benson (ankle). That leaves Carter and DeeJay Dallas as their top running backs. With Conner going down early last week, Carter had 13 carries for 70 yards. He also caught both of his targets for another 11 yards. At his cheap salary, Carter could be well worth the risk in tournament play.

Player to Avoid

Kyren Williams, LAR vs. SEA ($7,600): The Rams are another team that plans to rest their starters. They have already said that Jimmy Garoppolo will start in place of Matthew Stafford. If Williams plays, it likely won’t be for long.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs. MIN ($7,700): St. Brown posted eight receptions for 60 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers last week. That marked his third straight game with a touchdown. He was also targeted at least eight times in each of those games. When he faced the Vikings in Week 7, St. Brown caught all eight of his targets for 112 yards and one touchdown. The Vikings have allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, making a Goff and St. Brown stack very appealing.

Adam Thielen, CAR at ATL ($6,200): Thielen has received at least six targets in each of the last five games. He finished with five receptions in each of those games. He also had three games with at least 99 receiving yards. Despite the Panthers’ offense not being great, Thielen also scored four touchdowns during that five-game span. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most receptions to wide receivers in the league, so Thielen should be busy again.

Player to Avoid

Xavier Worthy, KC at DEN ($5,800): The Chiefs are going to rest some of their key veterans like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Worthy might still play, but that doesn’t mean he’s someone to consider in DFS. Starting at quarterback for the Chiefs will be Carson Wentz, so don’t expect their offense to be very productive.

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta, DET vs. MIN ($4,700): After a quiet start to the season, LaPorta has received at least six targets in each of his last seven games. He scored five touchdowns during that span and he even had a game against the Bills in Week 15 in which he had 111 receiving yards. Viable tight end options are usually sparse in DFS, and this week is even worse with so many teams having nothing left to play for. This important matchup makes LaPorta worth considering.

Chig Okonkwo, TEN vs. HOU ($3,800): Okonkwo recorded five receptions for 42 yards against the Jaguars last week, while also adding 17 rushing yards on his lone carry. He has received at least seven targets and finished with at least five receptions in each of the last three games. Don’t expect his role to decline as the Titans close out their season against a Texans team that could be resting several key players on both sides of the ball.

Player to Avoid

Dalton Kincaid, BUF at NE ($4,100): Kincaid finished with only two receptions for 24 yards against the Jets last week. He only has two games all season with at least five receptions and he has yet to top 53 receiving yards in a game. Combine his already limited production with the potential that he sees fewer snaps Sunday and there’s no reason to consider Kincaid for your lineups.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 18

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