Wed Jan 15 9:06am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs is producing at huge clip
Here is to hoping the games are better this weekend. On paper, it certainly looks like they should be some great ones. I really wouldn’t put it past any of the teams still playing advancing this weekend. For me, the Texans are the longest shot of the group but they hung with the Chiefs just a few weeks back, losing 27-19. Anything can happen this time of year. Let’s hope for some big-time performances this weekend.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Maybe I’m in the minority but I just don’t see Deion Sanders being a great NFL coach. Maybe if he surrounds himself with the right coaching staff, but that is the only way I have a lot of faith in him. I just think his time in Colorado has been a bit of a circus. But as you know, Jerry Jones loves chaos, so maybe that is what he is looking for. We’ll see. For me, it is a hard pass on Sanders.
I like Ben Johnson the most out of all the candidates out there. He will have his pick of the litter with job offers. If I’m him, I take my time and make sure everything is in place before I accept any offer. There are plenty of questions surrounding a lot of these teams, which is why they are looking for new head coaches. The Cowboys probably have the best talent to work with, so they top my list if you are alright with putting up with a bit of a crazy owner. After Dallas, I think Chicago is the most intriguing. They really have a lot of top, young talent and a general manager that seems to know what he is doing.
I hate to say it but Sam Darnold cost himself a lot of money his last few games. He did not play well, causing some questions for teams considering him as their next quarterback. And this includes the Vikings, who have J.J. McCarthy expected to be the starter at some point for Minnesota. I still think some team might overpay for him this offseason, though. Don’t rule that out. Either way, it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
The narrative before the season was of the rookie receivers, Marvin Harrison was in the best situation for success. He played in the best offense with the best quarterback of the top rookie options. Well, Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers proved that theory wrong. They were in offenses that didn’t produce well and had suspect quarterback play but still ended the season as top-10 fantasy receivers as rookie. Meanwhile, Harrison was just 30th overall in receiver scoring. Maybe we need to re-think how we value these talented rookies going forward. Talent can overcome a lot of things, so maybe just ranking based on the situation is the wrong way to go.
Derrick Henry might be on a mission these playoffs. He really wants that Super Bowl title and this is likely his best chance to get it. He looked as good as ever last week. I really look for the Ravens to ride him hard during the playoffs. Henry is going to get his chance to carry the offense and the Ravens to a Super Bowl title. His play just elevates the entire offense, including Lamar Jackson. This team is fun to watch.
News and Notes: The Texans released wide receiver Diontae Johnson on Tuesday. He is having a hard time staying on a roster at this point of his career.
HOT PLAYS
Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills. Shakir continues to be the most dependable option in the Bills passing game. He wasn’t off the charts last week but solid, catching six passes for 61 yards. And if the Bills are going to beat the Ravens defense, it is through the air. Shakir could do some damage this week against a Ravens defense that was 31st against the pass compared to first overall against the run. Look for him to get plenty of targets in this one.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles. Hurts played his usual solid game last week in his return from a concussion. He had two touchdowns without a turnover. Hurts can get back to his big ways another week removed from his injury. He had 25-plus fantasy points two straight games before getting hurt in Week 16. Hurts can do some damage this week against a Rams defense that struggled to stop the pass throughout the season. The Eagles offensive line is much better than the Vikings and should be able to withstand the pressure this week, giving Hurts time to throw the ball. Plus, the Rams allowed the eighth most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs is a must start no matter the matchup these days. He has become an elite fantasy back. Gibbs has four straight games with 25-plus fantasy points. He has topped 100-rushing yards three straight. We look for another huge game from Gibbs this week against Washington. The Commanders were just 30th overall against the run, allowing 137.5-rushing yards per game during the regular season.
COLD PLAYS
Joe Mixon, RB, Texans. Mixon had a strong game in the Texans playoff opener. He hit the 100-yard mark and scored 17.9 fantasy points. It was the first time he produced big in some time, though. He had fewer than nine fantasy points three straight games before last week, having fewer than 60-rushing yards all three of those games. We think he could have another down showing this week against a really good Chiefs rush defense. The Chiefs allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season and ranked eighth overall against the rush. And in Week 16 against the Chiefs, Mixon had just 8.1 fantasy points.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams. The Rams won last week and Stafford played a solid game but threw for just 209 yards and failed to top 20 fantasy points. Stafford has not topped 20 fantasy points in a game since Week 14, hitting that mark just one time his last six games. Things won’t get any easier for him this week against Philadelphia. The Eagles were first against the pass this season and allowed the third fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Zach Ertz, TE, Commanders. Ertz had a good season with the Commanders but been a little up or down throughout the season. He had just two catches for 23 yards on four targets last week. He has topped 50 yards in a game just once since Week 8. He has fewer than five fantasy points three of five games. We would not be surprised if Ertz has one of those down games this week. The Lions did well against the tight end throughout the season, allowing the second fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
SLEEPERS
Dyami Brown, WR, Commanders. Brown continues to get more and more playing time in the Commanders offense. He played 62 percent of the snaps last week and has played at least 62 percent of the snaps three of four games. He had his best game of the season last week, catching five passes for 89 yards and a touchdown. We think you want to get as many playmakers involved on both teams in what should be a high-scoring game. So Brown could produce well once again against the Lions, a team that allowed the second most fantasy points to receivers this year.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles. Goedert found the end zone for the third time of the season last week. He had four receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown. He has four receptions each of his last two games. He has returned to the lineup and played a big role in the offense. Look for more of the same for him this week against the Rams. The Rams really struggled to stop the tight end this year, allowing the second most fantasy points to tight ends.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill scored a touchdown last week and had 12.5 fantasy points. He had 10 touches in the game. Hill played 39 percent of the snaps in his return to the lineup. Derrick Henry is the clear starter and workhorse back for the Ravens, but Hill gets his weekly chances. Hill could be a sneaky flex play this week in a game we look for the Ravens to run often. The Bills allowed the third most fantasy points to running backs.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Commanders/Lions, Ravens/Bills.
Low Scoring Games: Texans/Chiefs.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Free-agent running back Miles Sanders plans to sign an undisclosed one-year deal with the Dallas Cowboys, sources tell ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. Sanders heads to Dallas for the 2025 season after a disappointing two-year run with the Carolina Panthers in which he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on 184 rushing attempts for 637 yards and three rushing touchdowns in 27 games (seven starts), adding 51 receptions (71 targets) for another 302 yards and a TD through the air. The 27-year-old lost the lead-back role to Chuba Hubbard in 2023 and played in just 11 games (two starts) in 2024 due to injury. Sanders could have a shot to see a bigger workload for the Cowboys after last year's lead back, Rico Dowdle, joined the Panthers in free agency. However, Dallas also brought in former Broncos RB Javonte Williams and could add to the position in what is a deep draft class. At best, Sanders will likely be involved in a committee.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Dianna Russini and Zack Rosenblatt write that New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson will be the no-doubt No. 1 target in this offense in 2025 and should have a big season as he reunites with quarterback Justin Fields, who he played with in college at Ohio State. As a freshman for the Buckeyes in 2020 with Fields at QB, Wilson caught 50 passes for 729 yards and seven touchdowns. Fields' ability to run the football should make life easier on running back Breece Hall. Not only does Wilson have prior history and chemistry with Fields, but the primary thing that will make Wilson's fantasy ceiling higher in 2025 is the fact that receiver Davante Adams is out of town. Fields can definitely stand to improve as a passer, but even if he doesn't, Wilson should eat and be a surefire WR1 target in fantasy drafts this fall.
From RotoBaller
Despite reports that have connected free-agent wide receiver Cooper Kupp to the Jacksonville Jaguars, sources have told FOX Sports' Jordan Schultz that the Jaguars are not interested. Sources also tell Schultz that the sense around the NFL is that the former Los Angeles Rams wideout doesn't plan on having a drawn-out free-agent process and prefers to make his decision quickly. The 31-year-old veteran reportedly has interest from at least five teams, with the Boston Sports Journal's Mike Giardi saying that the New England Patriots are one of those teams. It's believed that Kupp prefers to stay on the West Coast, though, and a league source told Giardi that Kupp's current asking price is "insane" compared to where he's at in his career. The former third-rounder can still play a key role on offense, but serious lower-body injuries in recent seasons have sapped him of the elite athleticism that helped him earn the NFL's receiving Triple Crown in 2021.
From RotoBaller
The Detroit Lions agreed to terms with veteran free-agent quarterback Kyle Allen on Thursday on an undisclosed deal, a source tells NFL Network's Mike Garafolo. Allen will head back to the NFC after spending the 2024 campaign as the No. 3 signal-caller for the Pittsburgh Steelers behind both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. The 29-year-old will now join a Lions quarterback room that already includes starter Jared Goff, Hendon Hooker and Jake Fromm. Allen will likely be competing with Hooker for the No. 2 role in training camp this summer. The former undrafted free agent is now on his sixth different team as he heads into his eighth NFL season. Allen began his career in 2018 with the Carolina Panthers and has completed 62.7% of his 705 career attempts for 4,753 yards, 26 touchdowns and 21 interceptions.
From RotoBaller
The Indianapolis Colts announced on Thursday that they have signed free-agent kicker Spencer Shrader to an undisclosed deal. Shrader will return to Indianapolis after making all three of his extra points in the Week 1 loss to the division-rival Houston Texans. The 25-year-old also appeared in games with the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs in his first year in the NFL in 2024, going a combined 5-for-5 on field-goal attempts (zero attempts from 50-plus yards) and 9-for-9 on extra-point tries. Shrader didn't miss a single kick, but it was also a small sample size. He was brought in to compete with veteran Matt Gay this summer after Gay made just 83.8 percent of his 37 field-goal attempts in his second year with the team. Whoever wins the competition should be left to the waiver wire in 12-team fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Chargers and backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke agreed to a one-year contract extension worth up to $6.2 million on Thursday, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Heinicke will return to L.A. for a second season to back up starter Justin Herbert. In his first year with the Chargers in 2024, Heinicke only saw action in four games (no starts) and went only 3-for-5 for 28 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. The 31-year-old former undrafted free agent out of Old Dominion has already played for five different NFL teams in his seven years in the league. His best year came in 2021 with the Washington Commanders, when he played in 16 games (15 starts) and threw for 3,419 yards, 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Heinicke has started 29 games in his seven seasons, but he's unlikely to see much work again in 2025 behind Herbert, who is one of the toughest QBs in football.
From RotoBaller
Former Las Vegas Raiders running back Alexander Mattison is signing an undisclosed deal on Thursday with the Miami Dolphins, sources told FOX Sports' Jordan Schultz. Earlier in the day, former Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert signed with the Raiders in free agency. The 26-year-old Mattison joined the Raiders in 2024 after spending his first five years in the NFL with the Minnesota Vikings. He eventually took over the lead-back role from a disappointing Zamir White and carried the ball 132 times for 420 yards and four touchdowns (a career-low 3.2 yards per tote) in 14 games (seven starts), adding a career-high 36 catches for 294 yards and another score. Mattison's move to Miami is a big downgrade, as he'll merely be competing for a change-of-pace role with Jaylen Wright behind unquestioned starter De'Von Achane. He'll be avoidable in most fantasy drafts this fall.
From RotoBaller
During his introductory press conference on Thursday, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold drew praise from head coach Mike Macdonald. Per Nick Shook of NFL.com, Macdonald was "ecstatic" and gushing with praise over his new QB. "First of all, he's just a tremendous human being, a great leader," said the head coach. "We had a lot of people in our building that have the history with Sam...So, I'm really excited to get our relationship started." The history Macdonald refers to regards new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who has ties with Darnold from their time spent together in San Francisco in 2023. "Obviously, you know, working with Klint...I'm very familiar with the scheme," Darnold told reporters. The 27-year-old's familiarity with the offensive system -- a riff on the one he ran in Minnesota -- is what made him so attractive to the team. Despite a late-season meltdown, the USC product was superb in 2024. However, his new team does not sport the same arsenal of weaponry that he deployed with the Vikings. Wide receiver is a glaring need for Seattle, and they'll need to address that position so that Darnold can reach the heights he did a season ago.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Field Yates reports that the New York Giants hosted free-agent quarterback Joe Flacco at their facilities on Thursday. Flacco started six games for the Indianapolis Colts in 2024, compiling 1,761 yards and a 12:7 TD:INT ratio in eight total appearances. The news comes as New York also plans to host QB Russell Wilson on Friday. With Tommy DeVito as the only signal-caller on the roster, the Giants are casting a wide net in search of their next quarterback, and Aaron Rodgers is also linked to the team. New York is in an interesting situation, considering they hold the third pick in this year's draft and could also select a field general there. The Giants require a few more pieces than just a QB to become competitive, though. Still, they are doing their due diligence, exploring every potential avenue to improve their roster from a season ago.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Chiefs have signed quarterback Gardner Minshew. Dynasty Analysis: Kansas City will pay Minshew to essentially hold a clipboard and work on his mustache next season because he has a below zero chance to steal anything meaningful from Patrick Mahomes. Still, this is a good signing as Minshew has always proven to be a capable backup and spot-starter when needed. He'll enter free agency next season and could even be a trade target next season if a team loses their starter. However, his dynasty allure has long since evaporated.
NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports that free-agent wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus is signing a one-year deal with the Chicago Bears. The amount has not yet been disclosed. The 27-year-old bounced around the NFC East over the prior two seasons, spending time with the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. He will link up with his fourth team since joining the Atlanta Falcons as an undrafted free agent in 2019. Zaccheaus notched a career-high with 45 receptions on 63 targets last season while playing with rookie signal-caller Jayden Daniels and serving as a punt returner for Washington. He projects to slot in as the Bears' third receiver, playing alongside incumbent starters DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. Despite the change in scenery, the Virginia alum can be safely avoided sans deep best-ball formats.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent quarterback Gardner Minshew II reached a two-year agreement with the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the news. The amount of the deal has yet to be disclosed. Just one season after the Las Vegas Raiders inked Minshew to a two-year, $25 million contract, he'll join his fifth squad after being selected by Jacksonville in the sixth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. With the release of former Chief Carson Wentz, the 28-year-old Minshew will slot in as the backup to new starter Patrick Mahomes. The Washington State product never panned out consistently as a starter. Still, he's one of the better second-string options in the league and provides a skillset similar to Mahomes with his mobility. Kansas City has yet to make a groundbreaking acquisition in 2025, but they've picked up some essential depth pieces.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Dolphins have signed running back Alexander Mattison. Dynasty Analysis: Raheem Mostert went from the Dolphins to the Raiders and Mattison has decided to do the opposite, moving to Miami from Las Vegas. A dynasty darling in 2023, Mattison failed miserably in his attempt to replace Dalvin Cook in Minnesota, lasting just one season (actually a half of a season) as the Vikings starter. He spent last year vulturing a few touchdowns in Las Vegas, but his career yards per carry of 3.2 was his worst yet and it really seems the more touches he gets, the less effective he's been. He won't have much of a role in Miami behind De'Von Achane and Jaylen Wright, but could provide some much-needed goal line or short yardage work. Mattison is getting increasingly tough to justify keeping on a dynasty roster.
Dynasty | The New York Jets have signed tight end Stone Smartt. Dynasty Analysis: Smartt had 16 catches for 208 scoreless yards for the Chargers last year and "boasts" a 31/380/1 line over his three year career in Los Angeles. However, many really do believe there's some untapped potential here and the Jets currently have a gaping hole at tight end. While dynasty managers aren't exactly running to their computers to put in waiver claims on him, there could be some intrigue here should the Jets fail to further address the position and, more importantly, let Tyler Conklin leave in free agency.
Dynasty | The Washington Commanders have re-signed wide receiver Noah Brown. Dynasty Analysis: The long-time Cowboy looked like a potential breakout player in Houston when he posted a total of 325 receiving yards in just two games in the middle of the 2023 season. Unbelievably, he has just 1,675 receiving yards in the other 85 games he's played in his career. He had just 35 catches for 453 yards last year with one single touchdown - the Hail Mary that beat the Bears and ignited the playoff run for the Commanders. Simply put, Brown has had a very interesting career. Unfortunately, it seems he's really more of a luxury than anything else and it's hard to see him carving out any kind of dynasty value. He should really be on waiver wires at this point, especially with both Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel soaking up targets in Washington.
The New York Jets signed former Los Angeles Chargers tight end Stone Smartt to an undisclosed one-year deal on Thursday, a source tells NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Smartt was a restricted free agent this offseason but was not tendered by the Bolts, making him available to all teams. The 26-year-old former undrafted free agent came on strong late last year for L.A. and finished with career-highs in catches (16) and receiving yards (208) on 19 targets in 15 regular-season games (two starts), although he didn't find the end zone at all. Smartt could have an opportunity to build on his 2024 season in his new home in New York in 2025, as Tyler Conklin and Kenny Yeboah are currently unrestricted free agents. The only other TE on the Jets' current roster is Jeremy Ruckert. The Jets could still add to the position in free agency and the draft, but Smartt will be one to watch heading into training camp this summer.
From RotoBaller
The Houston Texans have made yet another trade involving an offensive lineman, acquiring offensive guard Ed Ingram from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday in exchange for a sixth-round pick in 2026, according to ESPN's Kevin Seifert. Ingram, a second-rounder (59th overall) by Minnesota in 2022 out of LSU, will get a fresh start in Houston as they look to rebuild their offensive line in front of third-year quarterback C.J. Stroud. The 26-year-old was benched midway through his third season with the Vikings in 2024 and finished with 16 regular-season games played (nine starts). It's a trade that makes sense for both teams, as the Vikings signed both offensive linemen Ryan Kelly and Will Fries in free agency this week, while the Texans traded away left tackle Laremy Tunsil and guard Kenyon Green earlier this week.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Chargers are signing defensive tackle Naquan Jones to a one-year contract, according to pro scouting director Mike McCartney. The Michigan State product spent the last two seasons with the Arizona Cardinals, following three years with the Tennessee Titans. Overall, he has racked up 89 tackles (38 solo), 6.5 sacks, and four passes defended in 48 career games. The team also signed defensive tackle Da'Shawn Hand on Thursday, signaling they are prioritizing adding depth to its defensive line after allowing 4.7 yards per carry a season ago.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders are re-signing veteran defensive tackle Sheldon Day, according to NFL insider Mike Garafolo. The 30-year-old is back with Washington on a one-year deal after totaling 24 tackles (12 solo), one pass deflection, and 5.5 run stuffs in 12 games a season ago. Day was a 2016 fourth-round pick out of Notre Dame by the Jacksonville Jaguars and has appeared in 85 games for six organizations. He played a significant role for Washington when Pro Bowl defensive lineman Jonathan Allen, who is now with the Minnesota Vikings, was forced to miss significant time last year due to a torn pectoral.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders are re-signing veteran wide receiver K.J. Osborn, according to team reporter John Keim. The 27-year-old was claimed off waivers by Washington in November following his release by the New England Patriots and appeared in one game for the Commanders. The 2020 fifth-round pick out of Miami by the Minnesota Vikings has collected 165 receptions for 1,902 yards and 16 touchdowns in 66 career games. Washington also re-signed wideout Noah Brown and traded for Pro Bowler Deebo Samuel Sr. this offseason, so it's tough to expect Osborn to have any fantasy value in 2025.
From RotoBaller