Lineup Prep: Championship Games

Wed Jan 22 8:46am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Daniels is playing at high level

Well, the games were better last week but not off the charts. Hopefully, this weekend is a good one for viewing. Both games seem like they could be classics, especially if you look at past history with the teams playing each other. It should be fun.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I'm sorry but I don't buy the narrative just yet that Lamar Jackson isn’t a big-game player because of his past few playoff showings. This last week wasn’t all on him. Sure, he had a bad turnover and took a sack he shouldn’t but he put his team in position to win that game on the road. Mark Andrews lost a key fumble as the Ravens were driving late and then dropped a two-point conversion attempt that sends that game to overtime. I think the bigger story is Jackson was able to perform at a high level once again despite being without his top receiver. The rest of the receivers on the Ravens roster just aren’t very good but Jackson still had that team in a prime spot to win and advance. Here is to hoping they add some more talent in the passing game for Jackson in 2025. I still believe he is a big-time player that can come up big when it matters.

And speaking of the Ravens. I have no idea where I will rank Derrick Henry next season. He proved me wrong this year, having one of the best seasons of his illustrious career. He showed few signs of slowing down, rushing for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns. He has double-digit touchdowns eight straight seasons. Here is what worries me, though. He will be 31 next year and has 300-plus carries two of three seasons and four of six. That is a ton of work. You just don’t see backs hold up in the NFL at that age and with that big of a workload. Henry is built different, though, so it is hard to count out another huge season for him. It is going to be tough ranking him next year.

I absolutely love the Ben Johnson hire for the Bears. This is a home run for that offense. You have to be excited about all those playmakers on that side of the ball. Caleb Williams is sure looking a lot better to fantasy owners these days. And even D’Andre Swift is intriguing to me if the is their No. 1 back next year. Johnson has a history of producing elite fantasy backs in his offense. Things are looking up for the Bears after this hire.

Anthony Richardson was one of my biggest fantasy disappointments this season. I knew he struggled but didn’t realize how bad it was until I looked deeper at his numbers. He was on target with just 58 percent of his throws, which was by far and away the worst total in football. The league average was 75.9 percent. That is awful for Richardson. And his bad throw percentage was 28 percent, which also led football. You knew Richardson had some accuracy issues coming into the NFL, but he is going to need to clean both these numbers up big time if he hopes to keep starting for the Colts. They might be regretting this pick after two seasons.

If you haven’t figured it out, turnovers usually drive the winning teams in the playoffs. The four teams that won last weekend all didn’t turn the ball over while their opponents did. Taking care of the football this time of the season is just so huge. This is way the Chiefs have enjoyed so much success last several seasons. They just don’t turn the ball over in crunch time.

I know he had some issues as a head coach but Josh McDaniels is a solid offensive coordinator with some big success in that role. So I like his hire in New England once again, getting to work with Drake Maye. This should be a positive for Maye, who is establishing himself as one of the top young quarterbacks in football. I hope the Patriots can get some more firepower offensively this offseason, though. They are going to need that if they hope Maye and McDaniels can create some magic in New England.

News and Notes: The Bears hired Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as their next coach. The offensive guru takes over a Bears offense loaded with a lot of talent. . . .New England hired Josh McDaniels as their offensive coordinator. He served as offensive coordinator for the Patriots from 2006-2008 and 2012-2021.

HOT PLAYS

A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles. Brown has not done much at all in recent weeks, having just three receptions for 24 yards on 10 targets his last two games. It has not been a good playoffs for Brown. The Eagles need to get him going. He had touchdowns three straight games before his duds the last two. Look for the Eagles to get him involved early and often this week against the Commanders. In two games against the Commanders this season, Brown has 13 receptions for 162 yards and a touchdown. Washington allowed 320-passing yards to the Lions last week.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders. Daniels has been on fire this playoffs. He has 25-plus fantasy points each of his two playoff games and multiple scores. The stage is not too big for the rookie quarterback. We look for more of the same good play this week against the Eagles. In his last game against Philly, Daniels threw for 258 yards and five touchdown passes. Daniels had a season-high 39 fantasy points in that game.

COLD PLAYS

James Cook, RB, Bills. Cook had his streak of touchdowns broken last week. He had scored five straight games before his last one. He was held in check pretty well, rushing 17 times for 67 yards. He could struggle this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. Cook scored two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 11 but ran nine times for just 20 yards. It was not a good day outside of the scores.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco played less snaps than Kareem Hunt last week, playing 31 percent of the snaps compared to 47 percent for Hunt. It was a little surprising, considering most thought Pacheco would see his usage go up in the playoffs. Pacheco ran five times for just 18 yards last week and has not gone over 55-rushing yards since returning from injury in Week 13. He is a tough play no matter the matchup right now.

SLEEPERS

Curtis Samuel, WR, Bills. Samuel doesn’t get a ton of playing time but gets his weekly chances in the offense. He has 12 receptions his last three games, including a score in the wild card game. He is capable of the big game in this offense, having 12-plus fantasy points two of three games. There are always surprises in the playoffs, so why not Samuel this week? The Bills will need someone to step up and make plays if they hope to pull off the win. Samuel is a playmaker, so the Bills could try to find ways to get him the ball.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles. Goedert has four receptions each of his last three games. His numbers haven’t been off the charts since returning from injury but consistent. Goedert is another player more than capable of producing the big game, though. He had five receptions for 61 yards in Week 11 against the Commanders. The top two receivers for the Eagles have struggled some in recent weeks, so look for Goedert to maybe get a few more targets than usual in this one.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Commanders/Eagles.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Championship Games

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