Bender's Favorite NFL DFS Pick Em Picks: Super Bowl LIX

Sat Feb 8 8:07pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer

First and foremost, I just wanted to say that it was an honor and a privilege to spend the 2024 NFL season with all of you here at RT Sports. I know I’ve been around for a while and many of you knew who I was prior to this season, but this season was definitely a special one as I connected with a number of new friends here and this season has been a blast. You’ll still find me lurking around for the upcoming MLB season, but please stay in touch via my socials:

OK, now let’s get to why we’re really here! It’s time to start building some DFS Pickem parlays for the Super Bowl! It doesn’t matter if you’re rooting for the Kansas City Chiefs or the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s all about winning some money!

If you’ve been tailing this series, you’ll remember we did some great work for the Conference Championships. We nailed our pick for Jalen Hurts, Zach Ertz and Xavier Worthy with ease. We did get tripped up on Isiah Pacheco, but lesson learned there as it was painfully obvious that the lead job in that backfield resides with Kareem Hunt. Does that continue here in the Super Bowl? Probably, but I might just avoid that backfield altogether for the big game.

One quick note before we get to my picks – RT Sports if gifting you a Super Bowl Promotional Pick, so don’t miss out. Patrick Mahomes at 0.5 total yards? Yes, please. And thank you. They have a $10 limit on that entry, but they don’t limit how many other picks you can attach in a parlay, so let’s get it!

Here’s what I’m playing for Super Bowl LIX:

Patrick Mahomes MORE than 23.5 completions

He hasn’t exceeded 20 completions through two games in the playoffs, but he had at least 24 in five of his final six regular season games and did so in 10 games this season. Given the strength of the Eagles run defense, the mediocrity we’ve seen from the Chiefs ground game in recent weeks and the fact that Andy Reid wants the ball in his quarterback’s hands as often as possible, I see him clearing this mark once again.

Jalen Hurts MORE than 211.5 passing yards

The Chiefs typically use two-high safeties in coverage, but given the need to contain Saquon Barkley, they will likely use more single-high safety looks which will put A.J. Brown in more one-on-one situations with Trent McDuffie and leave some of the middle of the field open for DeVonta Smith working out of the slot in three-receiver sets. Hurts crushed this number in the Conference Championships as we knew he would and I expect him to do the same as the Chiefs focus their attention on Barkley.

Dallas Goedert MORE than 4.5 receptions (0.96x)

The multiplier is a little lower here due to the high probability of this pick hitting. The Chiefs were one of the worst teams against the tight end all year and gave up an average of eight targets, six catches and 68.5 receiving yards per game to the position. Since returning from injury in Week 18, Goedert has averaged six targets per game and while he only had four catches in each of his first three games back, he went over this number last week in the Conference Championship. The Chiefs defense tends to funnel targets to the middle of the field and Goedert will be the guy Hurts looks for when he needs to move the chains.

Travis Kelce MORE than 60.5 receiving yards

Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio typically relies on Cover-4 and Cover-6 in the secondary. In fact, he ran those two coverage packages 37 percent of the time this season (highest in the NFL) and then ran them 42.3 percent of the time here in the playoffs. What that does is cut off the perimeter as well as take away the deeper shots, so things are funneled to the middle of the field which is Kelce’s wheelhouse. While the Eagles were one of the best teams against the tight end this season, their coverage against the position has dramatically faltered since the loss of linebacker Nakobe Dean. Neither Zach Baun nor Cooper DeJean are going to be able to cover Kelce throughout this game, so expect Mahomes to lean on his big target once again.

The Long Boi Parlay:

  • Noah Gray Longest Reception MORE than 9.5 yards
  • Saquon Barkley Longest Rush MORE than 23.5 yards
  • DeVonta Smith Longest Reception MORE than 20.5 yards

Top Headlines
The Paur Report
Player Notes
Kyler Murray Apr 12 11:20pm CT
Kyler Murray

ESPN's Josh Weinfuss thinks the Arizona Cardinals need to select a wide receiver in the first three rounds of the 2025 NFL draft. The Cardinals already have an unquestioned WR1 in Marvin Harrison Jr. and a No. 2 in Michael Wilson, but they could use another big three-down wideout to add to an offense that also includes tight end Trey McBride and running back James Conner. Opposing teams paid a lot of attention to Harrison last year, so it wouldn't be a surprise if they add to the receiver room to give quarterback Kyler Murray another option when Harrison is double-teamed. ESPN's Matt Miller was told that when Arizona is on the clock at No. 16 overall in the first round, they will likely go defense. They also have only six picks in this year's draft, so Miller wouldn't be surprised if the Cardinals trade back in Round 1 to accumulate more draft capital.

From RotoBaller

Dak Prescott Apr 12 11:00pm CT
Dak Prescott

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) said he is progressing in his recovery from a season-ending torn right hamstring last year that required surgery. "If I had to play a game today, I definitely could do that," Prescott said. "It's about moving forward healthy to make sure I can play 17 times, 20 [games] -- whatever we get to when the time's right." Prescott ended up playing in only eight games in 2024 after signing a four-year, $240 million contract extension last September that made him the highest-paid QB in NFL history in terms of annual average value. Before the injury, the 31-year-old had only 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions, making him a big disappointment in fantasy leagues as a QB1. However, the three-time Pro Bowler will be looking to bounce back in 2025 and is planning to take part in organized team activities when they start next month.

From RotoBaller

Kader Kohou Apr 12 11:00pm CT
Kader Kohou

As expected, Miami Dolphins cornerback Kader Kohou signed his $3.3 million tender offer on Saturday to return to the team for the 2025 season, according to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson. The longer the Dolphins go this offseason without adding another cornerback, the better chance Kohou has of starting in the team's base defense in 2025 after a strong season in 2024. The 26-year-old defensive back finished last year, his third in the NFL, with 45 tackles (33 solo), a career-best two interceptions, eight pass breakups, one forced fumble and a fumble recovery in 15 games played (nine starts). Despite playing a career-low 671 defensive snaps in 2024, Kohou should be competing for a starting role in training camp this summer, depending on what the team does at the position in the upcoming NFL draft at the end of April.

From RotoBaller

Patrick Peterson Apr 11 8:20pm CT
Patrick Peterson

Eight-time Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Peterson will be in Arizona on Monday to retire as an Arizona Cardinal, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter. Peterson, who hasn't been a Pro Bowler since the 2018 season, will hang up his cleats after a 13-year NFL career that saw him play for the Cardinals, Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers. The 34-year-old also was named a first-team All-Pro three times. He did not play at all in 2024 and had 42 tackles (34 solo), two interceptions and 11 pass breakups in 17 games (16 starts) for the Steelers in his final season in 2023. Arizona took Peterson with the No. 5 overall pick in 2011 out of LSU, and he was named a Pro Bowler in each of his first eight years in the league with the Cardinals. In his prime, Peterson was one of the best lock-down corners in the NFL. He finishes his career with 652 tackles (571 solo), four sacks, 36 interceptions and 122 pass breakups in 201 total games.

From RotoBaller

Tyler Shough Apr 11 8:10pm CT
Tyler Shough

Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough made a top-30 visit to the New Orleans Saints on Friday, according to The New Orleans Times-Picayune's Jeff Duncan. It comes on the same day that news surfaced that incumbent veteran QB Derek Carr (shoulder) could be forced to miss the start of the 2025 season. The Saints have been considered a wild card in this year's NFL draft because of needs across the board, but they now make much more sense to go the QB route early on given the uncertainty at the most important position on the field. If Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders slides out of the top three picks in the first round, he could become an intriguing option for New Orleans at No. 9 overall. New Orleans also has a Round 2 pick (No. 40 overall), but if they pass on signal-caller at No. 9 overall, they could be in play to trade back into the third round, as they have two third-round selections.

From RotoBaller

Derek Carr Apr 11 6:40pm CT
Derek Carr

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (shoulder) is now dealing with a shoulder injury that threatens his availability for the start of the 2025 season, sources tell NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Carr is currently weighing his options, which includes possible surgery. This is big news, especially with the 2025 NFL draft right around the corner. However, even if Carr was completely healthy, it wouldn't have been much of a surprise if the Saints were considering using a draft pick on a young signal-caller this year with Carr's future with the team beyond this year uncertain. Now that he could miss the start of the 2025 campaign this fall, though, QB should be a bigger priority. Carr, 34, missed seven games with hand and oblique injuries last year and was underwhelming as a QB2 in fantasy before the injuries. If Carr is forced to miss the early portion of 2025, a rookie QB could compete with Spencer Rattler for starts under center.

From RotoBaller

Derek Carr Apr 11 5:13pm CT
Derek Carr

Dynasty | Saints quarterback Derek Carr is dealing with a significant shoulder injury. Dynasty Analysis: The injury is reportedly significant enough to possibly require surgery and threatens his availability for the upcoming season. The Saints were supposedly looking at quarterbacks in this year's NFL Draft, but this sure did escalate quickly. With the veteran market drying up, New Orleans could be in some trouble. In regards to Carr, his dynasty value is starting to tumble as it seems he's no longer viewed as a long-term answer for the Saints and could even be damaged goods.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Geno Smith Apr 11 4:13pm CT
Geno Smith

Dynasty | The Seahawks have signed quarterback Drew Lock. Dynasty Analysis: Lock spent time with the Seahawks backing up Geno Smith and will now return as the likely backup to Sam Darnold. Once though of as a starting-caliber quarterback in the NFL, Lock just hasn't shown enough in limited action to be counted upon as a starter. He has, however, been good enough to feel like one of the better emergency backups in the league and a decent spot starter. Lock has little dynasty value at this point and this signing won't change that.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Rayshawn Jenkins Apr 11 4:00pm CT
Rayshawn Jenkins

The Cleveland Browns are hosting free-agent safety Rayshawn Jenkins for a visit on Friday. Jenkins most recently played with the Seattle Seahawks this past season. He finished with 53 tackles, two sacks, and one fumble recovery across 13 games (nine starts) in 2024. It was a down year for Jenkins who finished with 100-plus tackles in each of the two seasons prior to him joining the Seahawks. The 31-year-old could be a quality depth or rotational player on many organizations. The addition of Jenkins could be good for the Browns secondary to have him alongside Grant Delpit.

From RotoBaller

TreVeyon Henderson Apr 11 3:50pm CT
TreVeyon Henderson

Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson has reportedly finished top-30 visits with the Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, and Carolina Panthers. It's also worth noting that Henderson had Zoom meetings with other teams as well. Henderson is viewed as an every-down back that could be dangerous as a receiver as well. Right now, Henderson should be viewed as a top-3 rookie back alongside Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton. It's unclear where Henderson will fall on draft day as a dual-threat back like him could help multiple organizations. It obviously depends on where he's drafted, but Henderson could be Day-1 starter in the NFL.

From RotoBaller

Andrei Iosivas Apr 11 3:30pm CT
Andrei Iosivas

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Andrei Iosivas has reportedly been bulking up over the offseason. The former sixth-round pick has reportedly added around 15 pounds of muscle. Iosivas is now at his ideal weight which is around 215-200 pounds. He says that he is feeling better, stronger, and moving faster than before. Iosivas quietly had a solid season with the Bengals this past season. He hauled in 36 receptions for 479 receiving yards and six touchdowns in 17 games (eight starts) in 2024. The Bengals obviously have Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins above him on the depth chart, but that doesn't mean Iosivas can't be an impact player. Hopefully the added weight will Iosivas feel more like himself as a receiver this upcoming season.

From RotoBaller

Drew Lock Apr 11 3:20pm CT
Drew Lock

The Seattle Seahawks have signed free-agent quarterback Drew Lock on Friday. The veteran quarterback is back with the organization after spending the 2023 season with Seattle. During that season, Lock threw for 543 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions in four games (two starts) with the Seahawks. He spent last season with the New York Giants, but he didn't have too much success there. He finished with a 1-4 record while throwing for 1,071 passing yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions in eight games (five starts) with the Giants. The former second-round pick has failed to establish himself as a starter in the NFL. However, Lock could be a quality backup behind Sam Darnold in Seattle this upcoming season.

From RotoBaller

Deshaun Watson Apr 11 3:13pm CT
Deshaun Watson

Dynasty | The Browns have signed quarterback Joe Flacco. Dynasty Analysis: The veteran quarterback found great success in his first stint with Cleveland, throwing for 1,616 yards, with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions in relief of Deshaun Watson back in 2023. His signing is an interesting one as the Browns currently have Kenny Pickett as their de facto starter and seem to be leaning away from the quarterback position in round one of the upcoming draft. Flacco could simply be veteran depth or have a legitimate shot at being the starter this season, This whole story will be worked out after the NFL Draft in a couple of weeks.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Jack Cochrane Apr 11 11:50am CT
Jack Cochrane

The Kansas City Chiefs announced on Friday that they officially re-signed linebacker Jack Cochrane after he signed his right-of-first-refusal tender. Cochrane will make $3.263 million in 2025. The 26-year-old will return to Chiefs Kingdom for his fourth season after he originally went undrafted out of South Dakota. In his three seasons with the Chiefs, he has racked up 42 tackles (29 solo) and one pass breakup in 47 games (one start). In 15 regular-season games (zero starts) last year, Cochrane had only five tackles (three solo). His most productive season came in 2023, when he had a career-high 28 tackles (21 solo) and a pass breakup in 17 regular-season games (one start). Cochrane played 296 snaps on special teams last season and only nine on defense, so we should expect him to return to a similar role with the Chiefs in 2025.

From RotoBaller

Daniel Jones Apr 11 11:40am CT
Daniel Jones

ESPN's Matt Miller writes that tight end is the obvious first-round target for the Indianapolis Colts going into the 2025 NFL draft. The Colts had the fewest receptions from its tight ends in the league last year, so both Penn State's Tyler Warren and Michigan's Colston Loveland makes sense for Indy for both need and value at No. 14 overall. ESPN's Stephen Holder believes the Colts will build from the inside out in this draft after losing starting offensive linemen Ryan Kelly and Will Fries in free agency and edge rusher Dayo Odeyingbo, who led the team's defensive line in snap counts in 2024. The Colts may go with a tight end with their first-round pick, but if they do, expect them to address the depth on both their offensive and defensive lines after that, starting with the No. 45 overall pick in the second round. The Colts definitely need a reliable target in the middle of the field for one of Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones at QB.

From RotoBaller

Javon Hargrave Apr 11 11:30am CT
Javon Hargrave

ESPN's Nick Wagoner thinks that defensive line is the San Francisco 49ers' biggest priority heading into this year's NFL draft, and they arguably need three new starters on the defensive line next to edge rusher Nick Bosa. They need significant upgrades after releasing starting defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Maliek Collins and edge rusher Leonard Floyd this offseason. The good news is that this draft is deep on the defensive line, and it's why many pundits have San Fran projected to take Texas A&M defensive tackle Shemar Stewart early on. "This should be an all-trenches draft if [Kyle] Shanahan can resist picking skill players," said a rival NFC scout. It will be a pivotal draft for the Niners (they have 11 picks) after a disappointing and injury-riddled 2024 campaign that ended without a playoff berth.

From RotoBaller

Aidan O'Connell Apr 11 11:10am CT
Aidan O'Connell

The Las Vegas Raiders signed quarterback Geno Smith to a two-year, $75 million contract extension this offseason, but it's extremely team-friendly, and The Athletic's Vic Tafur thinks bringing in a young QB in this year's NFL draft to learn behind Smith makes sense. Tafur also thinks the Raiders might trade backup Aidan O'Connell on draft weekend. The Raiders have a clear out with Smith after 2026, as they guaranteed only $18.5 of his $26.5 million 2026 salary, and none of the $39.5 million he's due to make in 2027. Minority owner Tom Brady likes the idea of rookie QBs sitting and learning, and the Raiders will have some interesting options later in the draft in what is considered a down year for QBs. Tafur doesn't think it makes much sense to take Colorado's Shedeur Sanders at No. 6 overall, and a good number of QBs could be off the board by the team's second pick at No. 37 overall.

From RotoBaller

Lamar Jackson Apr 11 10:10am CT
Lamar Jackson

The Washington Commanders have agreed to a one-year deal with free-agent quarterback Josh Johnson. The veteran signal-caller is back with the organization after playing four games with Washington during the 2018 season. Most recently, Johnson played with the Baltimore Ravens during the 2024 season as the backup to Lamar Jackson. Now, Johnson is set to serve as the third string behind Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota. The 38-year-old is mainly a veteran presence at this point in his career considering he hasn't started a game since 2021. Johnson has played with seven different organizations since being traded by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2008. He won't offer much value on the field, but can be a helpful mentor on the sideline.

From RotoBaller

Mo Alie-Cox Apr 11 10:00am CT
Mo Alie-Cox

The Indianapolis Colts have re-signed tight end Mo Alie-Cox to a one-year deal on Friday. Alie-Cox is headed back to Indy for a eighth straight season. In 2024, Alie-Cox finished with 12 receptions for 147 yards and one touchdown in 17 games (13 starts) with the Colts. At this point, Alie-Cox is mainly depth as the Colts are likely to target a tight end during the upcoming NFL Draft. Regardless, it's hard to imagine Alie-Cox having fantasy value considering he hasn't posted a season with over 200 receiving yards since 2021. This appears to be a depth signing as Alie-Cox knows the system and the organization well.

From RotoBaller

Jalen Pitre Apr 11 9:30am CT
Jalen Pitre

Houston Texans safety Jalen Pitre has agreed to a new deal with the organization on Friday. The two sides have agreed on a three-year, $39 million extension, including $29.1 million in guaranteed money. Pitre was set to enter his final year of his rookie deal, but the Texans decided to lock him up before he could enter free agency. Pitre recorded 147 tackles, eight passes defended, and five interceptions during his rookie year in 2022. Since then, Pitre has seen his stats take a dip, but he has still been an above average defender on the field. This isn't a blockbuster move, but a reasonable one to keep a valuable defender on the roster for a good price.

From RotoBaller