Weekly Bender: 5 ADP Values

Fri Jun 20 10:53am ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer

Jeudy is setup for more success

My wife just told me I was insane. Between the Beat Bender Best Ball drafts, the Fantasy Life Fantasy Championships and a variety of other industry drafts and events, I’m already 32 drafts into my 2025 fantasy football season and it’s only mid-June. Is that a lot? By who’s standards? She just doesn’t get it.

It’s not that I want to be drafting this much in June. It’s that I have to be drafting this much in June. Who else is going to help shape the fantasy football ADP properly? Who will determine where the best value picks can be found in a draft? Who else is going to help you sort through the reasons behind recent ADP risers and fallers? Exactly.

OK, maybe I’m overinflating my place in the universe a bit here, but I ask you this – who do you trust to guide you through fantasy football draft season, a person who didn’t start drafting until August or the guy who has been in the trenches from the moment last year’s Super Bowl ended? To quote Colonel Nathan Jessup, “You want me on that wall. You need me on that wall.”

You can jump over to Fantasy Alarm and find everything from my rankings to NFL coaching system breakdowns to all sorts of draft strategy articles in our Fantasy Football Draft Guide, but for today, I’m going to drop you my five favorite ADP draft values before I give them to anyone else.

Drake Maye, QB New England Patriots (ADP: 146.18)

Drafting quarterbacks has changed so dramatically over the years, thanks to the increase in mobile quarterbacks. No longer is the industry sour on drafting the position early as many recommend the early move to Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen. A guy who can rush for 50 yards and steal a rushing touchdown each week has huge value over some of the more traditional pocket passers, so it makes complete sense.

Personally, I would rather continue bulking up on top running backs and wide receivers and roll with Bo Nix or Kyler Murray who both check the mobile-QB boxes, but regardless of which direction you take, getting a backup quarterback who has the upside of a Nix or Murray in the final few rounds of your draft is huge and Maye fits the bill.

The Patriots made a commitment to Maye when they signed Stefon Diggs to be his WR1 and drafted a premier pass-catching running back in TreyVeon Henderson. They want Maye to succeed, to be the leader of this team and to feel confident in throwing the football. But he also has the rushing upside. I don’t think he’ll ever be a Jackson or a Daniels, but can he produce sixth-round value from the 14^th round? Absolutely.

Chuba Hubbard, RB Carolina Panthers (ADP: 42.45)

He’s the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy football and if you’re too young to know who that is, just click here and enjoy 12 minutes of comedy gold. But here’s a guy who rushed for over 900 yards and five touchdowns in 2023 and then managed almost 200 more yards and five more touchdowns on just 12 more carries over two fewer games last year when he finally had a coach who knew how to run the football. I have strong expectations for Hubbard in Year 2 of Dave Canales’ Panthers rebuild.

Don’t worry about Rico Dowdle. He’s only there to replace Miles Sanders who was a non-factor in Canales’ system last year. Don’t worry about Trevor Etienne. They drafted him for depth and there is little in expectations for this season. And, of course, there is no reason to worry about Jonathan Brooks because he’s not even going to play this season. Maybe not even another down in the NFL. This backfield in a run-heavy scheme belongs to Hubbard and yet, people are still looking at rookies and split-backfield guys ahead of him. Maybe he’s not a sexy pick, but he certainly will prove to be reliable.

Jerry Jeudy, WR Cleveland Browns (ADP: 67.15)

A lot is going to depend on who wins the starting quarterback job, but Jeudy at his current ADP could be a huge steal. He remains the No. 1 receiving target in this offense and should be leaned on fairly often. The ceiling is that guy who saw double-digit targets in four of six games last year between Weeks 9 and 15 and if Joe Flacco is under center to start the year, we could see just that. But even if it’s Kenny Pickett or Shedeur Sanders throwing the football, Jeudy will still be peppered with targets, albeit low aDOT ones.

For me, Jeudy is a safe, high-floor WR3. The kind of guy you can just leave in your lineup without much fanfare. If you have someone with an even higher ceiling in a softer match-up, then maybe he sits on your bench for a week, but overall, as the No. 1 receiver for the Browns, he could just be a “set it and forget it” player.

Michael Pittman, WR Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 114.12)

Here’s another No. 1 receiver who has fallen so dramatically, it’s almost impossible not to take him at his ADP. The drop stems from two things – injury risk and quarterback concerns. Though he opted to play through the pain, last year’s back fracture hindered production and it’s rare to see a guy bounce back in full from such an injury. His ability to play through is a nice confidence-booster for those looking to draft him, but it’s really about his opportunity to be a WR1 at such a low cost that gives him so much value.

We obviously prefer Daniel Jones to Anthony Richardson from a passing standpoint. He’s got a bigger arm, better field of vision and better accuracy. If he’s throwing the football, we should see a return to the 100-catch, 1,000-yard form and from there the touchdowns will come. But even if it’s Richardson, Pittman should be just fine and will still rack up the targets and receptions. Will he be as productive? Maybe so, maybe not. But for this price? We’ll take those shots.

Mark Andrews, TE Baltimore Ravens (103.37)

People, please. Stop with the nonsense. Andrews was injured heading into training camp last year and he got into a car accident about two weeks before the season started. No wonder his production through the first five weeks was garbage. But from Week 6 on, he was as strong an option as almost any of the tight ends not named Brock Bowers. He caught 11 touchdowns over the next 12 regular-season games and finished the year among the top 10 TEs for the season. But you wanted Isiah Likely. Pffffffft!!!

Yes, Andrews is getting older, but he’s not turning over the keys to the kingdom. Likely finds himself on the field more because the Ravens are running more with Derrick Henry and of the two tight ends, he’s the better blocker. But when it comes to running routes and being the most consistent, Andrews is still my guy. Coming off the board outside the top 100 is criminal.

Bender out!

Weekly Bender: 5 ADP Values

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