The Weekly Bender: Early NFL Best Ball ADP Risers & Fallers

Fri Jun 27 4:32pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer

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Rice is moving up drafts


As the calendar flips to July and NFL training camps get ready to open, fantasy football best ball drafts are kicking into high gear. The Beat Bender $10,000 Best Ball Tournament is already 30 percent full and the $25,000 Best Ball Championships are filling drafts every single day. We should see record-setting numbers of best ball participants by the time the 2025 NFL season opens.

With so many people joining the fray, the need to step up your research becomes even more prevalent. But it’s not just about studying the recent news, the training camp reports and the NFL team depth charts. You need to study the draft trends as well. Who is on the rise? Which players are falling down draft boards? Where are the best pockets to find value? This is why we study the fantasy football ADP and trends.

While RT Sports does a tremendous job with their ADP, allowing you to study it for each specific contest, we’re going to focus today on the best ball trends. Playing in large-field tournaments like these requires a different mindset. People stack in best ball way more than they do in season-long leagues and everyone is typically shooting for upside. That’s not to say some of the high-floor, “boring” players don’t get drafted, but, for the most part, people are looking to shoot the moon. No one wins the grand prize playing it safe.

So, let’s take a look at some of the more recent ADP risers and fallers to see just how much interest we may or may not have.

ADP Risers:

Rashee Rice, WR Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 47.14)

The rise of Rashee Rice and his push into the top-50 overall has always been expected, but he’s taking a meteoric trip that could land him in the second round of some drafts. That does seem a little high, given how Patrick Mahomes has routinely spread the ball around over the last few seasons, but the talent is off-the-charts and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him open the year as the Chiefs No. 1 receiver and be an absolute target-monster. We’ve been hearing a lot out of Chiefs camp that they want to push the ball downfield more and with concerns of Travis Kelce’s recent decline and Marquise Brown’s injury history, the groupthink continues to push Rice up boards everywhere. Enjoy the price now and stock up while you can. If he does push into the second round, the overall value will lessen.

Justin Fields, QB New York Jets (ADP: 102.37)

Organize the ADP by position and you’ll see Fields coming off the board as QB13 and one of the biggest risers at quarterback. A month ago, he was almost an afterthought, but as draft season has kicked in and more people are seeking out mobile quarterbacks with rushing upside, Fields has vaulted past names like Brock Purdy and Justin Herbert. He can be a very polarizing player these days as the college crowd still adores him while those who had their hopes and expectations crushed in seasons past, don’t want anything to do with him. But anyone who has played this game knows a quarterback who can rush for 50 yards and a touchdown adds so much to your overall fantasy production. Fields has a first-time offensive coordinator looking to make a splash, he’s been reunited with his old college chum, Garrett Wilson, and everything is being designed to cater to his strengths. Even with the ADP increase, Fields should produce strong value in return.

J.K. Dobbins, RB Denver Broncos (ADP: 129.56)

The rise in ADP can easily be attributed to Dobbins’ recent signing with the Broncos. While most of us were worried about deciding between Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin as the complement to R.J. Harvey, Dobbins landing in Denver actually gives us a little more security in how we view the team’s backfield. It was always going to be shared in some capacity but the expected split and the roles both he and Harvey play should allow for some standalone value for the veteran. Dobbins can be elusive in the outside zone, but he is also a solid pass-catcher. If we’ve learned anything over the years, it’s that Broncos OC Joe Lombardi loves throwing to the running backs. In fact, his backfields have ranked among the top five for running back receptions over the last 18 seasons. That’s crazy when you think about it, but not so much when you look at the numbers for guys like Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler, both of whom thrived in Lombardi’s scheme.

ADP Fallers:

Sam LaPorta, TE Detroit Lions (ADP: 60.08)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Remember this time last year when the ADP told you to take LaPorta in the second round? How’d that turn out? But while LaPorta’s value was nowhere to be found after drafting him that high, we’re content to go back to the well this year at his current price tag of a fifth-round pick. Maybe even the sixth or seventh, depending on how forgiving your league mates can be. The Lions didn’t do anything to bolster their receiving corps, so LaPorta should remain the third-most targeted pass-catcher on the team. My preference might be to take Trey McBride or George Kittle before him, but I’ve had no issues taking him at a slight discount and hope that last season was an aberration.

Stefon Diggs, WR New England Patriots (ADP: 109.75)

As the kids say these days, “buy the dip.” Sure, there have been some reports that mention the possibility of Diggs missing the first few games of the regular season and maybe that’s why we’re seeing the drop in ADP, but my research hasn’t found that to be of much concern. It was an errant report from one of the local Boston papers that was suggesting Diggs’ value even IF he were to miss time. But it doesn’t sound like he’s landing on the PUP list and should be good to go for Week 1. To get an alpha receiver at this kind of a discount is huge and you really don’t need to shy away from it. Should Diggs see at least 120 targets, he is going to provide you with major value. Drake Maye is already looking to make a splash with his new toy, so for best ball purposes, it’s a no-brainer for me.

Anthony Richardson, QB Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 172.17)

Now this is a dip I’m not buying. Sure, the pick is almost free at this point, but with all signs pointing toward Daniel Jones being the starter, I’m not so sure it’s worth the roster spot should he even start a small handful of games. Richardson is not a strong passer and for you to get any value in a best ball contest, he’s going to have to rush for 100 yards or multiple touchdowns to make any sort of an impact. We tried, people. We tried. But there’s no reason to make the same mistake this year that we made over the last two seasons.

Bender out!

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Tyler Shough Sep 18 8:50am CT
Tyler Shough

New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler's apparent improvement in Year 2 has sufficiently quieted any QB controversy rumblings, with Nola.com reporting that Saints coach Kellen Moore hasn't fielded a single question about replacing Rattler with rookie Tyler Shough since naming the former the starter. To his credit, Rattler won the competition in the offseason and has played better than expected in the first two games, completing 65% of his passes for 421 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Saints are 0-2 and among the worst rosters in the league, but Rattler is coming off a three-touchdown performance against a solid San Francisco defense and has shown some sneaky streaming appeal for Superflex leagues and as a backup in one-QB formats.

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Jaylen Waddle Sep 18 8:20am CT
Jaylen Waddle

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (shoulder) will test the injury pregame Thursday at Buffalo as there is growing optimism the receiver will be able to play. The Alabama product is officially listed as questionable for the Dolphins, who are double-digit underdogs against the Bills and facing the real prospect of an 0-3 start. Waddle has been decent in spite of the Dolphins' poor start, registering nine catches for 98 yards and a touchdown through two games. But given the injury, a Buffalo defense that has fared well against fantasy receivers, and a Miami offense that is going through a rough patch, Waddle is a low-end WR3/flex play while playing on a short week.

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Jeremy McNichols Sep 17 11:50pm CT
Jeremy McNichols

Washington Commanders running back Jeremy McNichols (hamstring) was limited in Wednesday's practice ahead of Week 3's home matchup against the Raiders. This seems to be a new injury for McNichols, and the severity is unknown at the moment. McNichols is set to step into a larger role in Washington's backfield as their primary third-down and pass-down back with Austin Ekeler out for the season. McNichols is a highly trusted veteran in pass protection, and he showed some ability to be versatile last season, gaining tough yardage as a runner and catching some passes as a receiver. His most important skill is pass protection, which will keep him on the field a lot. That makes him worth considering as an option to pick up off the waiver wire to see how the Washington backfield shakes out.

From RotoBaller

Dillon Gabriel Sep 17 11:20pm CT
Dillon Gabriel

Cleveland Browns quarterback Dillon Gabriel saw his first game action in the NFL in their 41-17 Week 2 blowout at the Ravens. He completed all three of his passes for 19 yards and a touchdown. With the offense scuffling with Joe Flacco as the starter, discussions about a quarterback replacement are starting to pop up in Cleveland, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. Fowler says that Cleveland's situation "bears monitoring" in response to the question of which quarterback is most in danger of being benched. While Flacco is safe for now, he compared the situation to Jacoby Brissett with the Patriots last season. Drake Maye's first NFL start came at home against the Texans in Week 6 of last season, for reference. Gabriel has operated as the No. 2 quarterback all summer and has been praised for his mobility, quick release, and overall grasp of the offense. It will likely only be a matter of weeks before Gabriel slides in as the starter in Cleveland. He makes for an intriguing upside swing to stash in redraft superflex leagues and deeper formats.

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Chris Godwin Sep 17 9:43pm CT
Chris Godwin

Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin (knee) returning in Week 4 'feels like a real possibility,' sources told Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com.

Fantasy Spin: Godwin hasn't officially been ruled out for Week 3, but it sounds like Week 4 is a more realistic possbility for his return. Even when he does return, it could take Godwin a few games to find his rhythm, and he will also have to compete with Emeka Egbuka for targets. Godwin is worth stashing, but he doesn't need to be starting until he proves it on the field.

From TheHuddle

Josh Reynolds Sep 17 9:00pm CT
Josh Reynolds

New York Jets wide receiver Josh Reynolds (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday. Reynolds hasn't been on the practice field since last Thursday due to a shoulder issue. He sat out last week's game and is in danger of missing the Week 3 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His absence should result in a higher workload for Allen Lazard. However, there's really no viable receiving options on this team outside of Garrett Wilson. The Jets are going to be without Justin Fields (concussion), so Tyrod Taylor should be under center. Even if Reynolds plays, fantasy managers can find a better streaming option for Week 3.

From RotoBaller

Evan Engram Sep 17 8:50pm CT
Evan Engram

Denver Broncos tight end Evan Engram (back) was held out of Wednesday's practice session. Engram was dealing with a calf issue last week, but still managed to play in the Week 2 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. However, fantasy managers might not have noticed he played considering he only hauled in one catch for 12 yards during that contest. The veteran tight end has a total of four catches through the first two weeks. His decrease in usage should be more of a concern than this back injury. Fantasy managers should check back on Thursday and Friday for another update on his status. If he sits, Adam Trautman would see an increased role for the Week 3 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Engram should be rostered in most formats, but is tough to trust after two straight duds.

From RotoBaller

Brandon Aiyuk Sep 17 8:40pm CT
Brandon Aiyuk

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (knee) was spotted doing some running on the side during Wednesday's practice. It sounds like Aiyuk is continuing to make progress, but is still going to be sidelined for a few weeks. He's currently on the physically unable to perform list through Week 4. There haven't been many updates on his status lately. The assumption is that Aiyuk should be ready to play around Week 5 or 6, but there should be a better timetable closer to that date. Aiyuk should be stashed in most 12-team formats as he'll likely be a focal point of the offense once he's ready to play.

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Darnell Mooney Sep 17 8:40pm CT
Darnell Mooney

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney (shoulder) was a limited participant during Wednesday's practice session. Mooney missed most of training camp and Week 1 due to a shoulder issue. He made his season debut last week, but was mostly quiet on the field. He hauled in two of his four targets for 20 yards in the victory over the Minnesota Vikings. The fact he was a limited participant on Wednesday could be the Falcons being cautious. Fantasy managers should check back on Thursday and Friday to see if his status changes at all ahead of the Week 3 matchup against the Carolina Panthers. The veteran wideout should be rostered in most 12-team formats despite a slow start.

From RotoBaller

Bhayshul Tuten Sep 17 8:30pm CT
Bhayshul Tuten

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Bhayshul Tuten (shoulder) was limited during Wednesday's practice session. Fantasy managers shouldn't be too worried as Tuten still has plenty of time to get ready before the Week 3 matchup against the Houston Texans. Without Tank Bigsby in the picture, Tuten was able to make a big splash last week. He rushed eight times for 42 yards while adding two receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Sadly, Tuten is going to have his value limited as the backup to Travis Etienne Jr. right now. Despite that, Tuten should continue to see his role rise if he plays well. He should be rostered in most 12-team formats at the moment even as the backup.

From RotoBaller

Jordan Mason Sep 17 8:20pm CT
Jordan Mason

Minnesota Vikings running back Jordan Mason is expected to be the main focus in the running game over the next few games. Recently, head coach Kevin O'Connell expressed confidence that Mason has bellcow potential. They expect Mason to handle a significant rushing workload while Aaron Jones (hamstring) is sidelined. The Vikings believe Mason is a multi-faceted player that can do just about anything on the football field. So far this season, Mason has rushed 24 times for 98 yards over the first two games of the season. There's not much competition behind Mason in the backfield right now. He should see all the carries he can handle, which should at least offer RB2 value for their upcoming matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals.

From RotoBaller

Troy Franklin Sep 17 7:50pm CT
Troy Franklin

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix said that second-year wide receiver Troy Franklin is "starting to develop into the player everyone knows he can become." Franklin, who was teammates with Nix at Oregon, had a breakout game in the Week 2 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, catching eight of his nine targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. The 22-year-old wideout currently leads the Broncos in targets (15), catches (12), and receiving yards (133) through the first two games in 2025. Franklin probably won't take over WR1 duties from Courtland Sutton, but a second-year breakout could very well be in the cards for him, especially because of his strong chemistry with Nix. His primary competition for weekly targets will come from Marvin Mims Jr., who is more of a big-play deep threat than one who will be consistently peppered with targets. If you need WR help early on, Franklin is definitely worth a waiver-wire pickup.

From RotoBaller

Davante Adams Sep 17 7:43pm CT
Davante Adams

Los Angeles Rams WR Davante Adams (non-injury) was given the day off for rest and did not participate in practice Wednesday, Sept. 17.

Fantasy Spin: Adams has made an immediate impact for the Rams, logging a team-high 21 targets through two games. Perhaps more importantly, both he and Puka Nacua are putting up strong numbers simultaneously, so there is reason to believe that Adams can continue to have success. At the very least, Adams is a WR3 with upside.

From TheHuddle

RJ Harvey Sep 17 7:40pm CT
RJ Harvey

Denver Broncos rookie second-round running back RJ Harvey is "an important piece of what we're doing," according to head coach Sean Payton. That may be true, and Harvey could see his role grow as the season progresses, but right now, his fantasy value is capped with J.K. Dobbins serving as the RB1 in Denver. Harvey was out-touched 15-6 by Harvey in the Week 2 loss to the Indianapolis Colts and finished with only five carries for eight yards (1.6 yards per tote) while adding one catch for a nice 16-yard gain. In the season-opening win over the Tennessee Titans, the UCF product had six carries for 70 yards and one reception for a loss of a yard. The 24-year-old is slippery with plenty of big-play potential, but right now, he's merely an RB3/flex for fantasy managers with a low floor and ceiling. Harvey and the Broncos also have a difficult upcoming divisional tilt against the 2-0 Los Angeles Chargers on the road this Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Davante Adams Sep 17 7:33pm CT
Davante Adams

Los Angeles Rams OG Steve Avila (undisclosed), DL Braden Fiske (undisclosed), WR Davante Adams (non-injury) and OT Rob Havenstein (non-injury) did not practice Wednesday, Sept. 17. TE Colby Parkinson (shoulder) was a limited participant.

From TheHuddle

Marvin Harrison Jr. Sep 17 7:30pm CT
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray didn't exactly ease fantasy managers' concerns regarding second-year wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. when talking to the media on Wednesday. "There's only one ball. We've been playing this game for a long time. Some days he's gonna get 10, and some days he might get 3. You never know," Murray said when asked if he felt Harrison should have more targets through two weeks. Harrison and Murray supposedly improved their chemistry in the offseason, but through two games, we have yet to see it. The 23-year-old former fourth overall pick is tied for 49th among WRs with 11 targets through two games and has caught seven of them for 98 yards and a touchdown. It might take Harrison a bit more time to reach his true potential, but fantasy managers will be hoping he'll rebound in a divisional matchup this Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.

From RotoBaller

Josh Jacobs Sep 17 7:10pm CT
Josh Jacobs

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (ankle) is dealing with an ankle injury and was listed as a limited participant on the first injury report of Week 3 on Wednesday. It's probably just a bit of rest for the veteran RB early in the week, but it's something worth watching the next few days for fantasy managers. The 27-year-old has been Green Bay's workhorse back through two weeks, as expected, handling 42 carries for 150 yards (3.6 yards per carry) and two touchdowns on the ground, adding one catch for four yards. The Packers will have more than a week of rest going into a Week 3 tilt against the Cleveland Browns, so we'd expect Jacobs to return to practice later this week and play on Sunday. Jacobs should be considered a must-start RB in fantasy if he's active. If he's out or limited, both Chris Brooks and Emanuel Wilson would likely share backfield touches.

From RotoBaller

Kyle Juszczyk Sep 17 7:03pm CT
Kyle Juszczyk

San Francisco 49ers DE Nick Bosa (non-injury), OT Spencer Burford (knee), DE Yetur Gross-Matos (knee), WR Jauan Jennings (ankle, shoulder), FB Kyle Juszczyk (concussion), RB Christian McCaffrey (calf), S Siran Neal (concussion) and OT Trent Williams (knee) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Sept. 17. QB Brock Purdy (shoulder, toe) was limited during practice, while RB Jordan James (finger) fully participated in practice.

From TheHuddle

Jayden Daniels Sep 17 7:00pm CT
Jayden Daniels

The Washington Commanders are expected to "err on the side of caution" with quarterback Jayden Daniels (knee) as he battles a knee sprain that he suffered in the Week 2 loss to the Green Bay Packers last Thursday night, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. Daniels will not practice this week until at least Friday, and if there is any doubt at all by then, the team is expected to keep him out in Week 3 on Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders. In a best-case scenario, it seems like Daniels will be questionable this weekend. The Commanders had backup Marcus Mariota meet with the media on Wednesday, an early sign that they are leaning toward starting him under center against the Raiders. Fantasy managers should not plan on having Daniels available in Week 3. If he's out, Washington could lean on the ground game more with rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez Jr., who will be making his 2025 debut after Austin Ekeler's season-ending Achilles injury in Week 2.

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Christian McCaffrey Sep 17 6:53pm CT
Christian McCaffrey

San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (calf) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Sept. 17.

Fantasy Spin: McCaffrey probably will not practice much this season but is on track to play in Week 3. He has been productive in both the running and passing game over the first two weeks and is a must-start option in all fantasy leagues.

From TheHuddle