Gausman is a solid play

There will be an interesting mix of two-start pitchers during Week 4. Some could dominate based on their matchups, while others might struggle mightily. Let’s break down five of the projected two-start pitchers and discuss what their matchups could mean for their fantasy baseball production.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers: at MIL, vs. KC

Skubal hasn’t had the easiest of matchups out of the gate. His first start came against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. He didn’t make it through unscathed, allowing four runs and recording only two strikeouts across five innings. While the Mariners scored three runs over 5 2/3 innings against him in his second outing, Skubal at least chipped in eight strikeouts. His third outing was another difficult matchup, but he registered six strikeouts over six shutout innings against the Yankees.

Skubal had a 30.3% strikeout rate last season to go along with a 2.83 xFIP and 0.92 WHIP. Whenever he gets a two-start week, he has the potential to provide tremendous fantasy returns. His first matchup will come against a Brewers team that has just a .601 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season. His second will be against a Royals team that has scored 45 runs over 13 games. Look for Skubal to dominate next week.

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays: vs. ATL, vs. SEA

Gausman saw his strikeout rate decline sharply last season. After four straight seasons with a strikeout rate of at least 28.3%, he finished 2024 with a mark of 21.4%. That contributed to him finishing with a 4.22 xFIP and a 1.22 WHIP. In his first two starts this season, he combined for just four strikeouts across 11 1/3 innings. He did dominate in his third start, recording 10 strikeouts while allowing one unearned run over eight innings against the Red Sox.

Gausman could provide another uptick in strikeouts when he takes on the Braves and Mariners. Last season, the Mariners struck out the most times in baseball, while the Braves were tied for the seventh-most strikeouts. Both teams have struggled to score this season, ranking inside the bottom 10 in baseball in runs scored.

Clay Holmes, New York Mets: at MIN, vs. STL

Holmes moved from the Yankees to the Mets during the offseason, but that wasn’t his most significant change. Holmes signed with the Mets and was immediately made a starting pitcher after having served as a reliever for most of his career. He has never logged more than 70 innings in a season. That means, regardless of how he performs in his new role, Holmes will likely be on an innings limit this year.

Holmes has thrown at least 85 pitches in all three of his starts for the Mets. He produced a 1.70 WHIP, though, walking nine batters over 14 2/3 innings. Two of his three starts have come against the Marlins, while his other came against an Astros team that has scored just 38 runs over 12 games. The Twins have also had problems generating runs in the early going, but the Cardinals rank inside the top five in runs scored and OPS. With the control issues that Holmes has shown out of the gate, he’s a risky two-start option. It’s still worth deploying him in deeper formats, but those in 10-team leagues can likely find better options.

Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox: at TB, vs. CWS

For the first time in his career, Houck made 30 starts last season. He didn’t rack up a ton of strikeouts, but he did a good job of keeping hitters off base, posting a 1.14 WHIP. He also gave up just 11 home runs over 178 2/3 innings. For his career, Houck has only allowed 0.7 HR/9.

Through three outings this season, Houck has a 1.47 WHIP and has given up three home runs over 16 1/3 innings. He will look to get back on track with a favorable two-start week against the Rays and White Sox. The Rays have scored 43 runs over 12 games, while the White Sox have scored 35 runs over 12 games. Last season, the Rays and White Sox were the bottom two teams in baseball in both runs scored and OPS.

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs: at SD, vs. ARI

Taillon doesn’t really excel in any one area. While he had a 3.27 ERA last season, his 4.16 xFIP indicates that he didn’t pitch that well. He only had an 18.5% strikeout rate, which dealt a blow to his fantasy value. That wasn’t a surprise with him, either, given his career 21.1% strikeout rate.

Given his lack of strikeout upside and his career 3.92 ERA, Taillon is a matchup-dependent fantasy option. The matchups won’t be in his favor next week when he takes on the Padres and Diamondbacks. Both teams ranked inside the top 10 in both runs scored and OPS last season. They both rank inside the top 10 in runs scored and OPS this season, as well. Taillon already faced the Diamondbacks in his first start this year, allowing six runs over 4 1/3 innings. This is a week to avoid starting Taillon in fantasy.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.