Lineup Prep: Week 15

Wed Dec 11 8:37am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Montgomery just keeps producing

Last week is going to be a hard one to top in fantasy land with some of the biggest fantasy games of the season. We can dream, though, right? Anything can happen any given week. And with no teams on a bye, it would be a surprise if we didn’t have at least one or two game-changing fantasy performances. Let’s hope they come on your teams this week.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

You have to feel for Panthers rookie running back Jonathan Brooks, who suffered a torn ACL in the same knee he hurt last year. Just awful. But with that said, the stock of Chuba Hubbard is rising in a hurry. This offense is looking better each week and Hubbard will be manning the backfield likely all of next season as well. I think he can improve on this season, a season he is 11th overall in fantasy running back scoring right now. Things are looking up for Hubbard owners.

Jalen Hurts is struggling throwing the ball but remains fourth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. He has just one 300-yard game this year and three games with 240-plus passing yards. His passing numbers are way down and there seems to be a rift with him and A.J. Brown. But even with that all said, he gets so many rushing touchdowns that his fantasy value remains sky high. If he can get those passing numbers going again, watch out.

I’m not sure where Sam Darnold lands next year but he will be starting and deserves that chance once again. He is having a great season in Minnesota. I just think his fantasy value will depend on his landing spot. He is in a great situation with some great weapons around him in Minnesota and a top offensive mind calling plays for him. Hopefully, he can keep it going next year but I am a little skeptical until I see where he lands.

Trey McBride is still third overall in fantasy tight end scoring and is yet to find the end zone. Just crazy. I mean if he has five touchdowns, he is leading all fantasy tight ends in scoring. His numbers are off the charts across the board except when it comes to touchdowns. I think that is a fluke as much as anything. Don’t look too much into it. He will get it going in the end zone. This guy is the real deal.

It is my favorite thing to say at this time of the fantasy season. Don’t get too cute. There are no more byes. You should have your top players available and ready to make a deep playoff run for you. Don’t overthink things. Go with the guys that got you there. Playing a marginal player with a favorable matchup over a stud with a bad matchup can be a recipe for disaster. I’m going with the proven players I trust in these crucial games. Don’t get too cute!

So I’m not as convinced as I was with the other three 49ers backs that Patrick Taylor will come in and produce big. I think they might platoon things a little more as I don’t see Taylor as a true three-down back. The other three fit the bill better in my opinion. I’m good adding him and using him but just temper your expectations a little. Taylor has been around a while and produced sporadically with his chances. He might not be near as good as Isaac Guerendo or Jordan Mason.

I wonder what will happen with Kenneth Walker going forward. He has a world of talent and produced some big games throughout his career, but Zach Charbonnet might just be the better fit for that offense. I would not be surprised if the Seahawks move on from Walker after the season, leaving Charbonnet the clear lead back. And if that happens, he can be an elite No. 1 fantasy back. It will be interesting to see what happens this offseason in Seattle.

News and Notes: The Patriots released receiver K.J. Osborn on Tuesday. Osborn got little playing time and will look to catch on with a new team before the season is over. . . . .The Panthers signed receiver Velus Jones Jr. to the active roster from the Jaguars practice squad on Tuesday. Carolina adds some more depth to receiver and running back with the addition of Jones. . . . .Cleveland released receiver Kadarius Toney on Tuesday. Toney might be about done in the NFL after this latest stint.

HOT PLAYS

Bo Nix, QB, Broncos. Nix threw for 294 yards his last time out and has 20-plus fantasy points four of six games. Heh as multiple touchdowns three of four games. Nix just keeps getting it done every week and making progress throughout the season. He is a legit low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback and deserves some starts this week against the Colts. Indianapolis allows the 10th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks 26th overall against the pass.

David Montgomery, RB, Lions. Montgomery doesn’t get quite the fantasy love as teammate Jahmyr Gibbs but he is a top-10 fantasy back. The numbers don’t lie. He gets a ton of work and produces on a weekly basis. He has fewer than 12 fantasy points just one game all season. Montgomery has 15-plus fantasy points four straight games. He should have another big showing this week against the Bills. Buffalo is ninth overall against the pass compared to 19th against the run. The Bills allow the third most fantasy points to running backs. Look for the Lions to run all over the Bills in this matchup.

Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings. Jones has a few fumbling issues of late but is still producing well for his fantasy owners. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points just two times all year. Jones has touchdowns three straight games. He has 16-plus points two of three games. Jones has two 100-yard rushing games this season and one came against his opponent this week, the Bears. Chicago is just 26th overall against the run, allowing 134.8-rushing yards per game. Jones is a must start in this one.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills. Shakir continues to be the most steady Bills receiver. He had his second 100-yard game of the season last week, topping 20 fantasy points for the first time. Shakir has at least seven targets seven straight games. His numbers aren’t eye popping but super consistent. It is all fantasy owners can ask. Look for another good game this week against the Lions, a team that allows the fourth most fantasy points to receivers.

Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. With Brandon Aiyuk done for the season, Jennings is acting as the No. 1 receiver for the 49ers and doing very well in that role. He had multiple touchdowns last week and 16-plus fantasy points three of five games. His ceiling is super high in this offense, making him about a must start for fantasy teams on a weekly basis. He could have another one of those big games this week against the Rams, a team that just allowed 342-passing yards to the Bills last week.

COLD PLAYS

Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great game last week, throwing three touchdown passes. He was nearly flawless in the Lions big win over the Packers. Goff hasn’t been off the charts for his fantasy owners of late, though. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points five of seven games. The Lions run-heavy approach can limit Goff at times. And we wouldn’t be surprised if that is the case this week against the Bills. Buffalo struggles against the run but is very good against the pass. The Bills allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Najee Harris, RB, Steelers. Harris has taken a step forward this year for fantasy teams, posting much more consistent numbers. He has scored touchdowns two straight games and has scores five of eight games. But his rushing numbers haven’t been off the charts, though. He has fewer than 65-rushing yards four of five games. He could have a ho-hum showing this week against the Eagles. Philadelphia allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to running backs and has allowed fewer than 100-rushing yards six of eight games.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears. Swift is picking a bad time to produce his worst numbers of the fantasy season. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points three straight and four of five games. Swift has less than 40-rushing yards three straight games. The Bears offense is struggling, including Swift. He might struggle again this week against the Vikings, a team that allows the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs. In Week 12 against the Vikings, Swift ran 13 times for just 30 yards.

Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals. Higgins had his worst game of the fantasy season last week, catching two passes for 23 yards on five targets. He had scores three straight games before this down showing. The big concern was Higgins was targeted just five times in the game, which was a season low. We wouldn’t be surprised if Higgins struggles some again this week against a very good Titans pass defense. Tennessee is first overall against the pass, allowing just 175.5-passing yards per game.

DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks. Metcalf has not been his usual fantasy self in recent weeks. He has fewer than 70 yards three straight games. He has just four receptions each of those four games. Metcalf has not hit the 100-yard mark since Week 4 of the fantasy season, watching Jaxon Smith-Njigba emerge as the go-to target in the Seahawks passing game. Metcalf could struggle again this week against the Packers, a team that is ninth overall against the pass.

SLEEPERS

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Jets. Rodgers is starting to show some signs of life for fantasy teams. He had his first 300-yard game of the season last week and has multiple touchdowns two of three games. The Jets are struggling to run the ball, so Rodgers is airing it out more often. The has 35-plus pass attempts three of four games. Rodgers can keep it up this week against the Jaguars, a team allows the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Ray-Ray McCloud, WR, Falcons. McCloud just keeps getting it done. He had season highs for the second straight game, catching eight passes for 98 yards on 11 targets last week. He has 90-plus yards two straight games. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight and four of five games. He has good spot start value for fantasy teams right now, especially this week against the Raiders. Las Vegas has allowed 240-plus passing yards six straight games.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Giants. Robinson had just four catches for 38 yards last week but was targeted 11 times in the game. It was the first time reaching double-digit targets since Week 6. This is a great sign for Robinson, especially this week against the Ravens. You could see the Ravens getting up big, leading the Giants to throw often. This could lead to some big numbers for Robinson against a team that allows the third most fantasy points to receivers.

Noah Gray, TE, Chiefs. Gray might not be the starter for the Chiefs, but he is producing like one. He has 18-plus fantasy points two of four games. Gray has four receptions four straight games. He is getting a lot more consistent work than earlier this season. His fantasy value is on the move. Look for another positive game for him this week against the Browns, a team that allows the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends.

Antonio Gibson, RB, Patriots. Patriots starter Rhamondre Stevenson has struggled some in recent weeks, so Gibson could be getting some more chances. And Gibson has looked good in recent weeks with his work, rushing seven times for 62 yards and a touchdown his last time out. He has 106 total yards on just 14 touches his last two games. Gibson has been very efficient with his chances. Maybe he gets more work this week against the Cardinals, a team that allows the seventh most fantasy points to running backs.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low-scoring games for the coming week. In high-scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low-scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Rams/49ers, Dolphins/Texans, Chiefs/Browns, Bills/Lions, Packers/Seahawks.

Low Scoring Games: Jets/Jaguars.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 15

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