RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 3

Fri Sep 19 10:13am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Injuries are already piling up through the first two weeks of the season, especially at quarterback. That makes for an interesting Week 3 DFS slate. Let’s try to make sense of it all and highlight some players to consider at each position, as well as a few to potentially avoid.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. DET ($7,300): Jackson continues to rack up touchdowns in bunches. After posting two passing touchdowns and one rushing score in Week 1, he had four passing touchdowns against the Browns last week. This game could be a shootout versus the Lions, who hung 52 points on the Bears last week. With all of the changes that injuries will force at quarterback thisweek, Jackson provides an extremely high floor to build your entry around.

Sam Darnold, SEA vs. NO ($5,100): After a dud of a performance against the 49ers in Week 1, Darnold bounced back to throw for 295 yards and two touchdowns versus the Steelers last week. He was picked off twice, but his overall stat line was certainly a step in the right direction. For those looking for a quarterback with a cheap salary in tournament play, Darnold should be considered. The Saints just allowed Mac Jones to throw for 279 yards and three touchdowns against them last week.

Player to Avoid

Kyler Murray, ARI at SF ($6,100): In what was a great matchup against an atrocious Panthers’ defense last week, Murray finished with just 220 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception. The Cardinals haven’t been able to sustain a ton of long drives, which has contributed to Murray attempting fewer than 30 passes in both of their first two games. The potential for limited pass attempts in a road matchup against the 49ers is not a recipe for success.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, ATL at CAR ($7,900): After allowing the most rushing yards per game in the league last season, the Panthers have given up the seventh-most rushing yards through two games. When Robinson faced them in Week 5 last year, he produced 105 total yards and two touchdowns. In Week 18, he torched them for 170 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Robinson will likely be a chalk play in DFS, but this matchup might be too good to pass up.

Jaylen Warren, PIT at NE ($5,500): Kaleb Johnson has not been a factor for the Steelers with the rookie logging two total carries through two games. They have relied more on Warren, who can make an impact both on the ground and in the passing game. In Week 1, he had 59 total yards and a touchdown. Last week, he had 134 total yards. He could provide significant value against the Patriots, who have already allowed 13 receptions to running backs this season.

Player to Avoid

Ashton Jeanty, LV at WAS ($6,700): Jeanty has been a disappointment with only 81 rushing yards through two games. It’s not for a lack of work because he has 30 total carries. However, it’s difficult to have much success with how poorly the Raiders’ offensive line has played. With defenders getting to him quickly, 93.8% of Jeanty’s yards have come after contact. Until the Raiders’ line shows signs of improvement, Jeanty is too risky right now.

Wide Receivers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. NO ($6,500): Darnold and Smith-Njigba make for an intriguing cost-effective stack in DFS. Not only is this a great matchup for the Seahawks’ passing game, but Darnold hasn’t exactly spread the ball around. He has leaned heavily on Smith-Njigba, who has accounted for 43.4% of the team’s targets. While he is still looking for his first touchdown, Smith-Njigba has 17 receptions for 227 yards for the season.

Rome Odunze, CHI vs. DAL ($5,300): Cowboys CB Daron Bland (foot) did not play against the Giants last week, dealing a huge blow to Dallas’ secondary. Russell Wilson took advantage, throwing for 450 yards. Bland is considered week-to-week and hasn’t returned to practice yet, so he likely won’t play again in Week 3. Odunze, who has a 29.9% target share and has an average depth of target of 13.7 yards, stands out at his cheap salary.

Player to Avoid

Ladd McConkey, LAC vs. DEN ($6,800): The Chargers bringing Keenan Allen back in the offseason has provided another weapon for Justin Herbert. While that’s good news for their chances of winning games, McConkey now has more competition for targets. With 14 targets through two weeks, McConkey has 11 receptions for 122 yards and no touchdowns. He has not received a single target inside the red zone. Meanwhile, Allen has been targeted inside the red zone two times. Smith-Njigba has a better matchup, a clearer path to more targets and a cheaper salary. There’s no need to take a chance on McConkey this week.

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson, NO at SEA ($3,900): Outside of Chris Olave, the Saints don’t have much to be excited about at wide receiver. With that in mind, they have turned to Johnson to help lead their passing attack. He has accounted for 26.7% of the team’s targets and 26.1% of their air yards through two games, leaving him with 13 receptions for 125 yards and one touchdown. We might not see his salary below $4,000 for much longer.

Luke Musgrave, GB at CLE ($2,700): Tucker Kraft has emerged as the Packers’ top tight end. After accounting for 15.2% of the team’s targets last year, he has a 22.4% target share through two games. His role was expected to remain elevated with Jayden Reed (collarbone) out for at least the next six weeks, but Kraft suffered a knee injury during practice Thursday. It’s not clear yet if he will play against the Browns, but if he doesn’t, then Musgrave could provide significant value with the Packers missing so many key offensive contributors.

Player to Avoid

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. DET ($4,700): The Ravens have been scoring at will this season. Isaiah Likely (foot) has yet to take the field. Andrews must be thriving, right? Wrong. He has been a non-factor, catching two of four targets for seven yards. Don’t let his past production cloud your judgement. He’s not someone to even consider in DFS right now, especially since his salary doesn’t come at much of a discount.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 3

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