Mon Sep 29 3:30pm ET
Field Level Media
While their Heisman Trophy hopes may have taken direct hits over the weekend, the fortunes of four quarterbacks continue to be on the rise when it comes to projecting the No. 1 overall pick in next year's NFL Draft.
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the new favorite for the top pick in next year's draft at FanDuel.
He is being offered at +300. The Cal transfer did throw an interception in a close win over unranked Iowa, but Mendoza also tossed a pair of touchdown passes and is completing 73 percent of his passes this season.
Mendoza has thrown for 1,208 yards and 16 touchdowns against the lone interception through five games. That has helped trim his odds of being the No. 1 overall pick next spring from +700 at the book just a week ago.
2026 NFL DRAFT NO. 1 PICK ODDS*
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (+300)
LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina (+350)
Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (+460)
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma (+1300)
Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami, Fla. (+1500)
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (+1900)
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State (+2200)
Arch Manning, QB, Texas (+2500)
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (+2500)
Jayden Maiava, QB, Southern Cal (+2700)
Carson Beck, QB, Miami, Fla. (+2700)
Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (+2700)
Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson (+3000)
*FanDuel
South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers, briefly the Heisman favorite earlier this season before suffering a concussion, is being offered at +350.
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is almost out of the Heisman conversation following LSU's loss to Ole Miss on Saturday. More concerning has been his continued mediocre play. Nussmeier has thrown seven touchdowns and three interceptions while completing a career-best 67.3 percent of his passes, but has struggled to establish LSU's vertical passing game on a consistent basis. He declined questions about his health as speculation about playing hurt popped up in recent weeks.
Still, the 6-foot-1, 205-pound Lake Charles, La., native continues to intrigue NFL scouts looking for a traditional pocket passer. He remains +460 to go No. 1 overall, although that is down from +320 before being held under 200 passing yards by Ole Miss.
There is a significant dropoff to the fourth-shortest odds, currently owned by Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer. Another previous Heisman favorite who is now on the outside looking in while recovering from hand surgery, Mateer is +1300 at FanDuel in top draft pick futures.
The shortest odds for a non-quarterback belong to Miami (Fla.) pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. at +1500. Through four games, Bain has produced a pair of sacks along with four tackles for loss and an interception to help shorten his odds from +2000 last week. Bain is the only non-quarterback among the top 10.
Arch Manning, the favorite to go No. 1 overall before the season began, remains in the picture at +2500. However, there is growing speculation that he may return to college in 2026 given his significant struggles through the first month. He is just behind Oregon's Dante Moore (+1900) and Penn State's Drew Allar (+2200), who squared off in Oregon's win at Penn State on Saturday.
Moore got the best of Allar, who threw an interception on the first play of Penn State's second possession in overtime. Allar was +1300 last week and still offers an intriguing blend of size at 6-5, 235 along with mobility, but has struggled to impress in many of his biggest games with the Nittany Lions.
Dynasty | Jets quarterback Justin Fields returned to action Monday, completing 20-of-27 passes for 226 yards, adding 81 rushing yards and another touchdown. Dynasty Analysis: The numbers look fine but a lot of his damage was done with the game already in hand for the Dolphins. Let's face it - Fields is a much better fantasy quarterback than a real one. Dynasty managers won't complain since he always produces counting stats but the idea he's the long-term answer in New York seems to be getting more and more far-fetched by the week. Fields looks like a possible "sell high" candidate in dynasty leagues at the moment.
Dynasty | Jets tight end Mason Taylor had five catches for 65 yards in a loss to the Dolphins. Dynasty Analysis: Taylor is starting to get more and more involved in the offense and today was by far his best outing. With 13 targets over his last two games, perhaps the Jets are realizing he's a viable weapon. We need to see a lot more before recommending him in weekly lineups but his rookie ranking and ADP are starting to climb.
Dynasty | Dolphins tight end Darren Waller caught three passes for 27 yards and two touchdowns in a win against the Jets. Dynasty Analysis: Waller's return couldn't have gone better as he made good on two red zone targets for scores. Dynasty managers are likely salivating about what could come next but also shouldn't get too excited quite yet. While Waller could get more targets moving forward without the services of Tyreek Hill, it's tough to look at this as sustainable. Still, he deserves to be on rosters and another solid game will put him in lineup considerations and make him a solid short-term target for contending dynasty teams.
Dynasty | Bengals quarterback Jake Browning completed just 14-of-25 passes for 125 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in a loss to Denver. Dynasty Analysis: Browning hasn't played well since taking over for Joe Burrow but also looks like he's playing on a team that has simply quit on the season. The entire offense is a disaster and they are also giving up points in rapid succession. Browning will attempt to get back on track next week, barring a trade for someone else to take his spot. Regardless, he's way off the dynasty radar at this point.
Dynasty | Bengals running back Chase Brown had 40 rushing yards, three catches and 31 receiving yards in a loss to the Broncos. Dynasty Analysis: Brown's rushing average actually increased to 2.3 on the season after this performance, which tells you about all you need to know about how things are going. On the year, he now has just 133 rushing yards, 11 catches, 74 receiving yards and one lone touchdown. It's been a total disaster for Brown and the Bengals offense without Joe Burrow and he's going to be a very tough start moving forward.
Dynasty | Broncos running back JK Dobbins had 101 rushing yards, one catch, and four receiving yards in a win against the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: When Dobbins is healthy, he's one of the best running backs in football. It's that simple. With 323 yards on a whopping 5.7 yards per carry, he's been a revelation this season. While RJ Harvey got more action this week, much of that came with the game decided. Dobbins is a solid buy in dynasty leagues from those who are still concerned about his durability but few remember he's still only 26 years old.
Dynasty | Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill will miss the rest of the 2025 season with torn ligaments in his knee. Dynasty Analysis: This comes as no surprise as we essentially predicted it in our article write-up immediately after it happened. We knew Hill had a dislocated kneecap and assumed he had torn ligaments in his knee. It turns out that's the case as he has a torn ACL and other undisclosed ligament tears as well. He's going to have surgery to repair his knee as early as today and get back on the road to recovery. His dynasty value is going to crater as he may miss part of 2026 as well. It's an unfortunate end to his season and let's hope it's just not the end of his career.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. had his best week of the season to date in Sunday's 34-27 win over the Commanders, reeling in all five of his targets for 70 yards and a touchdown, his first of the year. That now makes four straight weeks with at least five targets and at least four catches to begin the 2025 campaign, currentlyranking as the ninth-highest scoring tight end in half-point PPR leagues. The former first-round draft pick'starget share (18.5 percent) ranks second on the team behind only Drake London, and that is even the case if you only look at Weeks 2-4 when Darnell Mooney was on the field. It's almost a five percent increase in target share compared to his involvement last season, too. The Falcons have a bye in Week 5, and Pitts returns to a tough matchup in Week 6 against the Bills, a team that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to TEs this year, so it will be a good test to see if Michael Penix Jr. can keep him involved on an every-week basis.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud helped his team get their first win of the season in Week 4 by trouncing the hapless Titans, 26-0. It could be more than just a win, though, since it could signify a major step forward for Stroud, according to Sam Warren of the Houston Chronicle. Warren points specifically to Stroud's audible and adjustment on his 24-yard touchdown strike to rookie Jayden Higgins as a potential breakthrough moment for the young QB in the system of new offensive coordinator Nick Caley. The Texans lost three straight games by one score to the Rams, Bucs, and Jags to start the season before rolling over the Titans. With their defense playing so well, the offense only has to improve a little bit to start piling up wins. Stroud struggled in the first three games of the season but looked better against the Titans. How much of that was the opponent? We'll start to get our answer in Week 5, since Stroud and the Texans head to Baltimore for a tough road matchup on Sunday before their bye week in Week 6.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. caught a season-high six passes for 69 yards on Monday night against the Bengals, and he added his first touchdown of the year on a 16-yard rushing attempt. Mims only had six catches total in the first three weeks of the season, and matched that total by hauling in all six of his targets in Week 4 while more than doubling his receiving yards as well. Mims is loaded with big-play upside, and if the Broncos make an effort to get him more regularly involved in the offense, he could be a boom-or-bust flex option, especially headed into bye weeks. This week, he'll have a tough matchup against the Eagles, remaining a volatile but potentially productive receiver option.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (hamstring) left Week 4's loss to the Chiefs with an injury, and his status for this week's game against the Texans is "up in the air," according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Jackson left last week's game early, but since the game was mostly decided, it was hard to determine how much of his absence was due to the game situation. Coach John Harbaugh said there was no way Jackson could have returned regardless of the score, though, which is concerning for the mobile quarterback that needs his elusiveness to be effective. The Ravens have home games against the Texans and Rams before their Week 7 bye week, so they may opt to play it safe with Jackson and hold him out of those games. If he does miss time, Cooper Rush completed 9-of-13 passes for 52 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions after taking over in Week 4, and he would likely get the start in Week 5 if Jackson is unable to play.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (knee) will undergo surgery on Monday after suffering a catastrophic knee injury on Monday Night Football against the Jets. The injury is so severe that not only will he clearly miss the rest of this season, but his availability for the start of the 2026 season is in jeopardy, according to NFL on CBS's Jonathan Jones. Hill was viewed as a potential trade candidate before the deadline, but now he'll miss the rest of the year and could have played his last snap for Miami. While he is still under contract with the Dolphins next year, there is a digestible out for the team next offseason. If the Dolphins decide to reset the roster, cutting Hill would be a clear place to start and let him be a free agent headed into next year. If he does hit the open market, he could sign before or after he completes his recovery. Hill will be 32 years old when the 2026 season starts, and he'll be looking to return from this major injury while coming off the worst two-year stretch of his career. Still, his raw speed and high upside make him a fascinating piece to watch this coming offseason.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos running back RJ Harvey was more involved in his team's game plan this week, although some of that may have been since the game was decided early. He took a career-high 14 carries in Week 4 after totaling just 13 carries in his first three games and only getting two carries in Week 3. He turned those carries into 58 rushing yards and added a career-high four catches as well for 40 more yards and his first NFL touchdown. It was an easy walk-in score on a 12-yard dropoff pass with just under five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. He played 41% of his team's snaps, getting almost a 50-50 split with J.K. Dobbins, who also remained effective. In close games, Dobbins still may get more work, but Harvey's strong showing could earn him increased chances going forward. In Week 5, the Broncos have a tough road matchup with the Eagles.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix threw for 326 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns while adding a rushing touchdown as well to help the Broncos roll past the Bengals on Monday night, 28-3. Nix completed 29 of his 42 pass attempts and continued to show a strong connection with Courtland Sutton. He could have had an even bigger night if he hadn't thrown his interception inside the Bengals' five-yard line, and the Broncos' pass catchers hurt Nix with a few costly drops as well. The 2-2 Broncos face a tough test next Sunday on the road against the Eagles, and Nix will remain a borderline QB1 with a high ceiling despite that tough matchup for as long as he keeps this offense humming. Denver has scored at least 20 points in each of their four games this season.
From RotoBaller
According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (knee) tore multiple ligaments in his knee, including his ACL, in addition to his dislocated knee during the victory over the New York Jets on Monday evening. Hill exited this contest in the third quarter after making a catch along the sideline. The star wideout was eventually carted off the field and taken to the hospital for further evaluation. Given this recent update, Hill is expected to miss the remainder of the season and potentially face a lengthy recovery timeline given the extent of these injuries. Before exiting, Hill caught all six of his targets for 67 yards. Through the first three games, Hill tallied 198 yards and a score on 15 catches. With Hill sidelined, Jaylen Waddle projects to be the team's clear WR1, while Malik Washington and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine will have an increased role behind him.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson caught six of eight targets for 82 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins on Monday night. Wilson has caught a touchdown in three of four games to begin the 2025 season, and he could have had two if he hadn't gotten called for a very questionable offensive pass interference call. The entire Jets' passing offense has been centered around Wilson, and he has been peppered with targets. His 38 targets through four games are the fifth most in the NFL. But the Jets continue to be very run-heavy with Justin Fields, which limits the opportunities and upside for Wilson in fantasy. He's so talented that he is still able to make it work. Wilson should be viewed as a WR1 for next week's matchup against Dallas.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets running back Breece Hall rushed for 81 yards on 14 carries and caught five of his six targets for 30 yards on Monday night against Miami. Hall handled the most rushes on the team after Braelon Allen (knee) was injured in the first quarter. The 20 total opportunities for Hall, rushes plus targets, are the most since he had 21 in Week 1 against Pittsburgh. He had only 12 and 13 opportunities in Weeks 2 and 3, where he was also largely ineffective. That number should stay near the 20 mark if Allen were to miss any extended amount of time. Hall has looked healthy and explosive this season, and now, with potentially a full workload again, he could be getting ready to take off. The rushing efficiency will be there with the threat of Justin Fields, but he does limit the receiving upside for his running backs. Hall should still be viewed as a high upside RB2 moving forward if Allen is out.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins tight end Darren Waller caught three of four targets for 27 yards and two touchdowns on Monday night against the New York Jets. In his first game since January 2024, Waller caught two touchdowns, including a highlight catch rising over Sauce Gardner. It was the third two-touchdown game of his career. The 33-year-old moved well and looked good for the most part after missing a lot of time. He played only 25% of the snaps in the first week back, but that number should increase as he gets conditioned and acclimated. With Tyreek Hill injured and likely out for the season, other Miami pass catchers will have to step up, which could open a window for Waller. His value as a red zone threat is clear, and his role in the offense could expand. He'll be a name to consider on waiver wires this week.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston was one of the few bright spots in the team's 21-18 loss to the New York Giants on Sunday. He continued to deliver, leading the team with eight catches on 13 targets for 98 yards while scoring his fourth touchdown of the season. Johnston is now the WR3 overall in PPR formats, becoming the breakout star fantasy managers hoped for when he was drafted in the first round in 2023. His size and downfield ability make him Justin Herbert's top big-play target so far this season. Johnston now faces a Washington Commanders' defense that has struggled against the pass, setting up another big opportunity for the wideout. With consistent volume and scoring upside, Johnston should be treated as a strong WR2 with WR1 potential in Week 5.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey experienced the worst game of his career during the team's 21-18 loss to the New York Giants on Sunday. He caught only one of six targets for 11 yards and dropped some critical passes. After appearing reliable over the past three weeks, his struggles stood out in the tight loss. McConkey has consistently been behind Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen in targets and yards as he tries to carve out a meaningful role in the offense. He now faces a favorable matchup against the Washington Commanders, who are allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game this year. While the floor remains safe in PPR formats, managers should temper expectations until he demonstrates more consistency. He's best viewed as a WR4/FLEX dart throw in Week 5.
From RotoBaller