Lineup Prep: Week 1

Wed Sep 4 9:42am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Tagovailoa can start season fast

It is a little hard to believe but the start of the season is here. And I say it every season, but there isn’t a better time of the year to be a fantasy owner. You get to see your team finally in action, seeing if your hard work has paid off. There are high hopes for all fantasy teams. And now you get to see if your calls were right or wrong. . . .at least for a week. So good luck to you this season. Here is to hoping you have a fantastic year.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I always like to make my picks for the Super Bowl in this column, so I will do that once again. And once again, it isn’t easy deciding on two teams. There are a lot of really good teams this year and I think you can make a case for a host of teams. I’ll start in the AFC. It is so hard to bet against the Chiefs, but I just don’t know if they can do it again. I’m going to go with the Ravens. Lamar Jackson finally comes up big in the playoffs and gets the Ravens to the big game. This is a complete team on both sides of the ball that is very well coached.

Over in the NFC, I think it is even tougher to pick a team. I want to pick the Lions but just aren’t sure that defense is good enough. Because of that, I will go with the other team in their division, the Packers. Green Bay has a ton of young talent on both sides of the ball that is just coming into their own. I think they take another step forward and Jordan Love leads his team to the Super Bowl. I just love the balance on both sides of the ball for the Packers.

So I’m going with a Ravens/Packers Super Bowl matchup. And I will go with the Ravens to win it all, winning the big game 30-27. It should be a great season and I’m looking forward to seeing it all play out.

It seems like every fantasy owner has their guys every year. And I have several players that seem to be landing on a lot of my rosters. Here are some of my guys for this season: Chris Godwin, Ty Chandler, Jameson Williams, Kyler Murray, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Devin Singletary, D’Andre Swift, Hunter Henry. Who are some of your guys this year?

I’m really intrigued by the Seahawks offense this year. I think this unit could be pretty good as long as Geno Smith plays well. The talent on that side of the ball is very high and the offense looks to be very innovative, using a lot of motion. I think some fantasy owners could be sleeping on this unit, undervaluing the pass catchers and backs for Seattle. I have even taken Smith as a QB2 in a lot of my drafts, thinking he can regain his form from two years back. I’m excited to watch this group in action.

I think I’m higher on Josh Jacobs than most but I really think he is a top-10 fantasy back this year. I just think the situation is great for him. He has next to no competition for carries and I expect him to get a lot of work in a very good offense. Plus, I think his reception totals increase this year, giving him even more fantasy value.

One storyline I’m going to watch closely this year is the tush push. Will that be as successful without Jason Kelce anchoring the line for the Eagles? I also wonder if teams will do a better job of defending it, using the offseason to come up with some sort of game plan to nullify it. It will be interesting to watch. Maybe the Eagles will just continue to bully teams, though. Everyone knew it was coming last year and still couldn’t stop it. We’ll see.

It worries me when players holdout and do little before the season. I know players keep themselves in tip-top shape these days but you still have to worry about nagging injuries when players do next to nothing before playing at game speed in Week 1. So guys like CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk and Ja’Marr Chase are a bit of a concern for me. Hopefully, nothing comes of it but history shows that might not be the case.

I’m really excited about the rookie receiver class this year. There is some big-time talent in this year’s class and I think several could make huge fantasy impacts right away. This receiver class could be talked about for years to come. Guys like Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas and Rome Odunze could be absolute superstars. Fun stuff.

News and Notes: The 49ers signed OT Trent Williams to a three-year contract extension worth $82.66 million on Tuesday. This ends his holdout and gets Williams back to anchor the 49ers offensive line. . . .Free agent receiver Kadarius Toney hasn’t signed with a team yet, but is sorting through his options after just completing a visit with Seattle. Expect the receiver to sign with a team soon. . . . .Giants head coach Brian Daboll will be calling plays for the offense this year. This is big news because Daboll is considered a top play caller and could provide a boost for the Giants offense.

HOT PLAYS

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins. Tagovailoa seems to have gotten overlooked a little come draft day. It was probably because of a mediocre finish to his season but don’t forget he was ninth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring last year. He had some huge game, producing seven games with 20-plus fantasy points. He has some of the best weapons to work with offensively and a top offensive mind calling plays. Expect plenty of big games along the way once again this year. We like his chances for a fast start against the Jaguars in Week 1. Jacksonville allowed the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks last year and were 27th against pass during preseason.

James Cook, RB, Bills. Cook had a breakout season last year as the Bills moved to a more balanced approach offensively, giving him more work. This should be the case from day one this year, which is great news for Cook. He should get a big workload this week against the Cardinals. Arizona was dreadful against the run last year, allowing the most fantasy points to running backs. And it didn’t look much better this preseason, allowing 122.3-rushing yards per game.

Chris Godwin, WR, Bucs. I’m all in on Godwin this year. I think he got overlooked come draft day because of his terrible touchdown numbers last year. He scored just twice last year but still managed to finish 28th overall in fantasy receiver scoring. Expect those touchdown and reception numbers to rise this year, especially with his move to the slot. He is going to get off to a fast start this season with a great matchup against the Commanders in Week 1. Washington allowed the second most fantasy points to receivers last year and were 23rd against the pass during the preseason.\

Davante Adams, WR, Raiders. Adams is another player that seems many fantasy owners are sour on for this year. It is hard to bet against Adams, though, having four straight seasons with at least 100 receptions. And we don’t think Gardner Minshew starting is a bad thing for Adams. Just look at what Michael Pittman did last year as his top target in the passing game, topping 100 receptions. Adams should get a ton of weekly targets in this offense. Look for him to rack up the catches this week against the Chargers, a team that allowed the fifth most fantasy points to receivers last year. Adams had 16 receptions for 176 yards and a touchdown in two games against the Chargers last year.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles. The Eagles signed Barkley to a big contract last year, making him their clear workhorse, No. 1 running back. He is going to give the offense a new dimension. Look for Barkley to be heavily involved as both a runner and pass catcher. Barkley can get it going right out of the gate against the Packers. Green Bay allowed 149.3-rushing yards per game during preseason and struggled in that area last year as well. Look for the Eagles to showcase their new toy in Week 1.

COLD PLAYS

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk didn’t play a single preseason game and missed nearly all of training camp, holding out for a new contract. This could lead to a bit of a slow start to his season as he gets ramped up and in shape. It is tough to sit him but it might not be a bad idea to do that in Week 1. Aiyuk plays a great Jets defense in Week 1. New York allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers last year.

Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals. Murray is a player many are high on this year, thinking he can produce huge numbers once again. Remember, Murray was returning from a major knee injury last year and many players do much better the second year back from such an injury. We also think that will be the case for Murray, showcasing his legs more this year. He has a really tough matchup to start his season, though. Murray plays the Bills, a team that allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to receivers last year. And Buffalo was third against the pass during the preseason. If you have a good QB2, you might want to give them a look over Murray this week.

Najee Harris, RB, Steelers. Harris could get a little bigger workload early in the year with Jaylen Warren banged up a little. This is good news for his fantasy value. But even with that said, he might struggle some this week against the Falcons. Atlanta was lock down against run last year, allowing the third fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Falcons were 11th against the run during the preseason, showing run defense is a strength of this team once again. Harris might struggle in this one.

Brian Robinson, RB, Commanders. Robinson has good potential this year in a new offense as the No. 1 back. Sure, Austin Ekeler is around but look for him to be more of a pass-catching back than anything. Robinson is going to get a big workload most weeks in this offense. His Week 1 matchup against the Bucs is a little scary, though. Tampa has one of the better run defenses in football. The Bucs allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to running backs last year and were 10th against the run during the preseason.

Devonta Smith, WR, Eagles. Smith had a pretty ho-hum season last year. He produced a few big games but was pretty mediocre most weeks. He can rebound some from last year but don’t expect a huge change. He could struggle some weeks. And we think he could struggle some this week against the Packers. Green Bay allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to receivers last season and were fourth against the pass during preseason.

SLEEPERS

Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams. Stafford is another quarterback that seems to have fallen way down fantasy rankings. He is getting older and isn’t as exciting as some of the other options, but he is going to produce some big games in this offense. Don’t count him out just yet. He has two outstanding receivers and a great offensive coach calling plays. Look for a big game from Stafford in Week 1. He gets the Lions, who have an improved pass defense but it remains a concern. Teams are going to try to throw against the Lions, who allowed the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks last year. Detroit was 24th against the pass in the preseason.

Zach Ertz, TE, Commanders. The Commanders drafted Ben Sinnott this year. He is the future at the tight end position. But for now, Ertz remains the starter. And it seems he has a really good rapport with new starting quarterback Jayden Daniels. The reports in camp were Ertz was a favorite target of Daniels. Ertz is an injury risk but as long as he is healthy and playing, look for him to have a few big games. And this week against the Bucs might be a good time to play him. Tampa really struggled against the tight end last year, allowing the second most fantasy points to tight ends.

Brian Thomas, WR, Jaguars. Thomas has generated a lot of buzz this preseason and it is well deserved. He is an exciting that player that many think could lead the Jaguars in receiving his rookie season. Look for him to be involved early and often in a game that should be a shootout. We would feel fine using Thomas as your WR3 to open the season. Miami allowed the 10th most fantasy points to receivers last year and pass defense should be an issue for this team once again this season.

Ty Chandler, RB, Vikings. The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to take over as their starting back. He is going to be their RB1 and get a big weekly workload. Minnesota already stated they want to get Chandler involved, though, almost splitting the work with Jones. The coaching staff stated that Jones played his best football when having a back compliment him, so look for Chandler to get double-digit touches per game. Look for that to be the case this week against the Giants, a team that is much better against the pass than the run. Chandler could be a sneaky flex play for fantasy teams in Week 1.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Giants. Malik Nabers is getting all the buzz at receiver for the Giants and it is well deserved. He is the real deal. But the Giants are going to need other receivers to step up and carry some of the load. We think the best option after Nabers is Robinson. He can have some good showings in that role. Look for the Giants to throw often in Week 1 against the Vikings. Minnesota was a disaster against the pass last year and it seems to be an issue once again this season, ranking 29th against the pass during the preseason.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Ravens/Chiefs, Cardinals/Bills, Texans/Colts, Packers/Eagles, Rams/Lions.

Low Scoring Games: Panthers/Saints, Vikings/Giants, Steelers/Falcons, Patriots/Bengals, Broncos/Seahawks, Raiders/Chargers.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 1

The Paur Report