RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 1

Fri Sep 6 12:05am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Singletary provides good value

The NFL regular season is back and Week 1 is loaded with an exciting schedule. No bye weeks means plenty of options to sift through in DFS. Let’s discuss some of the top players at each position to consider, as well as a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, BUF vs. ARI ($8,000): The Bills are going to look different on offense with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer on the team. Those two combined for 241 targets last year. The team drafted Keon Coleman and signed Curtis Samuel, but it could take Allen some time to gel with his new receivers. Coming off a season in which he rushed for 524 yards and 15 touchdowns, Allen could be worth his hefty salary against a Cardinals team that allowed the second-most points per game in the league last season.

Jared Goff, DET vs. LAR ($5,900): Goff is usually an appealing option whenever the Lions play at home. Last season, he threw 11 touchdown passes and averaged 265.2 passing yards per game on the road. At home, he threw for 19 touchdowns and averaged 284.6 passing yards per game. In a battle between two potent offenses, Goff should be asked to throw a lot.

Player to Avoid

Dak Prescott, DAL at CLE ($7,100): There will be plenty of weeks in which Prescott will be a top quarterback option in DFS. He threw for 4,516 yards and 36 touchdowns last season. However, the Browns have an excellent defense that allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the league last season. It will be difficult for Prescott to live up to his salary.

Running Backs

De’Von Achane, MIA vs. JAX ($6,800): Achane is risky, but he’s a great tournament option. He showed tremendous upside last season, averaging 7.8 yards per carry. However, with Raheem Mostert also in the fold, Achane received fewer than 10 rushing attempts in six of his 11 games. Still, he had at least 100 rushing yards in a game four times. If he were to approach 15 carries in this game, he could produce another gaudy stat line.

Devin Singletary, NYG vs. MIN ($5,700): With Saquon Barkley now on the Eagles, Singletary is the new top running back for the Giants. Behind him are a pair of fifth-round picks in Tyrone Tracey Jr. and Eric Gray. Singletary has rushed for at least 819 yards in each of the last three seasons despite topping 200 carries just one time. With a heavy workload coming his way, he’s appealing at such a cheap salary.

Player to Avoid

Tony Pollard, TEN at CHI ($5,900): After a disappointing season with the Cowboys, Pollard is now a member of the Titans. Derrick Henry is no longer in town, so there are a lot of carries up for grabs. However, Pollard will have to compete with Tyjae Spears for opportunities. In what could be a close to even split between their workloads, it’s best to steer clear of both players for at least the first week.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill, MIA vs. JAX ($8,700): Not much of an argument needs to be made for rolling with Hill in any given week. He has at least 119 receptions and 1,710 receiving yards in both of his seasons with the Dolphins. Last year, he recorded 13 receiving touchdowns. He tends to get off to a hot start, posting at least 197 receiving yards in his first game in two of the last three seasons.

Joshua Palmer, LAC vs. LV ($5,200): Palmer goes from the Chargers’ third wide receiver last season to possibly their top option this year. Keenan Allen was dealt to the Bears and Mike Williams is now a member of the Jets. Palmer still torched the Raiders last year, posting 190 receiving yards and a touchdown over two meetings against them. With the potential to lead the team in targets for this game, he might be too good to pass up at this salary.

Player to Avoid

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN vs. NE ($7,800): Chase held out during the preseason in his quest for a new contract. He did return this week and has been listed as a limited participant in practice. Even if he does play, the Bengals could look to limit his workload. They are heavy favorites against the rebuilding Patriots, so they might not need to throw the ball a lot, anyway.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. ARI ($5,800): Given the Bills’ uncertainty at wide receiver, stacking Kincaid with Allen is a viable strategy. He already accounted for 17.1 percent of the team’s targets last year, so he could be over 20 percent this year. The Cardinals also struggled against tight ends last year, allowing eight receiving touchdowns to the position. That was tied for the second-highest mark in the league.

Taysom Hill, NO vs. CAR ($4,300): The Saints don’t have a lot of weapons on offense. Enter the versatile Hill, who will likely be used in a variety of ways again. Over the past four seasons, he has combined for 24 rushing touchdowns. When he faced the Panthers in Week 2 last year, he turned nine carries into 75 yards. Alvin Kamara doesn’t bring a ton of power into the backfield, so the Saints could give Hill added work when they get close to the goal line.

Player to Avoid

Jake Ferguson, DAL at CLE ($5,200): We’re already avoiding Prescott, so it makes sense to also avoid some of his top weapons. Ferguson was very good last season, catching 71 passes for 761 yards and five touchdowns. However, the Browns are a horrible matchup. They gave up just 559 receiving yards to tight ends last season, which was the fewest in the league.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 1

The Paur Report