RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 4

Fri Sep 26 1:01pm ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

There are a few marquee matchups during Week 4, including the Chiefs hosting the Ravens. The Buccaneers will also take on the Eagles. Every team will be in action, meaning that we have a bevy of DFS options to sift through. Here are some players to consider at each position, as well as a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, LAC at NYG ($6,300): After throwing 25 or fewer touchdown passes in each of the last three seasons, Herbert already has six through three games this year. Last season, he had two games with at least 300 passing yards. He already has two through three games this year. Look for him to keep things rolling against the Giants, who have allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game in the league.

Geno Smith, LV vs. CHI ($5,400): The Bears are also a favorable matchup for quarterbacks. They have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game to go along with a league-high eight passing touchdowns allowed. In addition to his three passing touchdowns against the Commanders last week, Smith has posted at least 289 passing yards in two of his three games. The Raiders want him to throw the ball deep more, leaving him with an average target depth of 9.1 yards. He only had an average target depth of 7.6 yards the last two seasons with the Seahawks.

Player to Avoid

Baker Mayfield, TB vs. PHI ($6,500): Mayfield has not thrown for more than 233 yards in a game this season. It’s not going to help his cause that Mike Evans (hamstring) is out. Although he had six touchdown passes across the three games that Evans missed last season, he only averaged 215.3 passing yards. Herbert has more weapons, a better matchup and a cheaper salary, so steer clear of Mayfield in DFS.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey, SF vs. JAX ($8,500): McCaffrey has been extremely busy out of the gate, recording 52 carries and 32 targets through three games. His average of 25.7 touches per game is the highest mark in the NFL. The running back has accounted for 29.1% of the 49ers’ targets this season and should remain in a leading role with George Kittle (hamstring) and Brandon Aiyuk (knee) out.

Omarion Hampton, LAC at NYG ($5,900): Najee Harris is out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL, setting up Hampton to be the Chargers’ lead running back. When Harris went down early in Week 3, Hampton was given 19 carries and seven targets, which he turned into 70 rushing yards, six receptions, 59 receiving yards and one touchdown. The Giants have given up the second-most rushing yards per game in the league, leaving Hampton with the potential to provide significant value.

Player to Avoid

Chase Brown, CIN at DEN ($6,600): With the Bengals getting blown out last week, Brown only had 10 carries against the Vikings. Incredibly, he finished with just three rushing yards. Behind a bad Bengals’ offensive line, he has averaged just 2.0 yards per carry this season. The Broncos have only given up two rushing touchdowns this year, so this is not a good matchup for Brown to break out of his slump.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. CIN ($6,100): After two muted stat lines to begin the season, Sutton broke out in Week 3 with six receptions for 118 yards and one touchdown versus the Chargers. He was targeted eight times, marking the second time that he has received at least that many targets in a game this season. The Bengals have allowed 30.3 points per game, leaving Sutton with plenty of upside in what could be a big performance by the Broncos’ offense.

Tre Tucker, LV vs. CHI ($4,200): Tucker has been one of the main beneficiaries of the Raiders attempting more deep passes. Last season, he only had six receptions of at least 20 yards. He already has three this year. Last week, he caught eight passes for 145 yards and three touchdowns. Combine his cheap salary with a great matchup and he could be well worth the risk.

Player to Avoid

Travis Hunter, JAX at SF ($4,600): Hunter is a big name who has yet to live up to expectations. After getting eight targets in Week 1, he has eight total targets over the last two games. He continues to play both offense and defense, which increases his value in real football, but not so much in fantasy. There might be better days ahead, but even at his cheap salary, he’s not worth considering versus a 49ers team that has given up the seventh-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers.

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson, DAL vs. GB ($4,300): With CeeDee Lamb (ankle) leaving early last week against the Bears, the Cowboys turned to Ferguson to pick up the slack. He came through, catching 13 of 14 targets for 82 yards. The week prior, he had nine receptions for 78 yards on 12 targets against the Giants. While the Packers are not an easy matchup, a hefty workload with Lamb out makes Ferguson at least worth considering.

Cade Otton, TB vs. PHI ($3,400): Otto only has seven targets through three games, leaving him to post three receptions for 25 yards. While he normally has a muted role, Evans being out could change everything. When Evans missed three games last year, Otton totaled 22 receptions for 193 yards and three touchdowns during that span. The key was, he was targeted 29 times.

Player to Avoid

Sam LaPorta, DET vs. CLE ($4,400): After getting nine targets in Week 1, LaPorta has totaled eight targets over the last two games. His average depth of target is 5.2 yards, which is down from 6.5 yards last season. This game has blowout potential with the Lions playing at home against one of the worst teams in the league. If they don’t need to throw much in the second half, LaPorta could see limited targets again.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 4

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