Lineup Prep: Week 6

Wed Oct 8 9:35am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

McMillan setup for big Week 6

The season is moving right along, right? We are already five weeks into things. If things aren’t going well, don’t get too down. You have some time to make it up but make your move now. If you fall much farther behind, it might be too hard to climb out of that hole. So if you need to make a trade to give your team a spark or make a bold lineup decision, go for it. Just don’t do anything too rash. The top teams in your league like to take advantage of the bottom teams in the standings. Just be smart when you make those moves.

With that said, here are my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

I’m really happy to see the Bengals get Joe Flacco to take over their quarterback duties. I know Flacco hasn’t been great this year with the Browns, but he is a big upgrade for the Bengals at quarterback. This is a big positive to all their fantasy players. There is concern that Flacco doesn’t move around well behind the Bengals poor offensive line, but I’ll still take him over Jake Browning. This is a positive.

Patrick Mahomes is sure rebounding from his down season last year. He is even doing this without his top receiver, Rashee Rice, and a less than 100 percent Xavier Worthy. Mahomes is second overall in fantasy quarterback scoring, right behind Josh Allen. Mahomes has 30-plus points two straight games and at least 24 points four of five games. Mahomes is making all those fantasy owners that grabbed him after the top quarterbacks were off the board look pretty smart right about now. And his numbers could get even better as the season progresses.

I could not be more surprised than I am with Darren Waller. I thought he was washed and wouldn’t make much of an impact upon his return to the NFL. But he is looking sharp and has touchdowns each of his first two games. And he isn’t even playing a ton just yet, playing 28 percent in Week 4 and 58 percent last week. If his playing time keeps increasing, his numbers could get even better. Let’s just hope he can stay healthy.

I have gotten a lot of questions about the Chargers back I would target on the waiver wire. I don’t have a great feel for this one but might lean Hassan Haskins if you made me pick. I don’t feel strongly about this, though. Haskins is a little better pass catcher. I think he is more of a three-down back than Vidal. Again, this is a close call. It truly might be a timeshare with the Chargers going with the back that has the hot hand. I wouldn’t be surprised if that is the approach the Chargers end up taking.

Who would have thought the Ravens would be a team to target when setting your fantasy lineups? This defense is just a disaster right now - both against the run and pass. When you see the Ravens as the opposition for one of your fantasy players, you should be feeling pretty good. I don’t see a sudden turnaround for this terrible unit. Not good.

We guess it was too early to write off Deebo Samuel. A lot were concerned about his weight and fitness, but he is showing he is in just fine shape. Samuel is eighth overall in fantasy receiver scoring right now. Wow. He has at least six receptions four of five games and seven carries. His versatility and consistency as a pass catcher in this offense give him a great weekly floor. Samuel seems to have revived his career with a move to Washington. I don’t think he is a sell-high candidate. I would hold onto him.

Cam Skattebo is a fun story and a fun player to watch, but I don’t see him as a legit NFL starter. I think he would be better served as a top backup and situational player. He averages just 3.8 yards per carry, which ranks 125th overall. And for a man of his size, he averaged just 1.7 yards after contact. This ranks 28th overall and is supposed to be his strong suit. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong going forward, but I just don’t see it with Skattebo right now.

News and Notes: The Browns traded quarterback Joe Flacco and a sixth-round draft pick to the Bengals for a fifth-round draft pick on Tuesday. Flacco is expected to take over the starting role for the Bengals immediately. . . . .Free-agent receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has been suspended six games by the NFL for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. . . . .The Colts signed kicker Michael Badgley on Tuesday. Badgley should get first shot at the starting kicking duties for the Colts with Spencer Shrader out for the season.

HOT PLAYS

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders. Jeanty is starting to show some much-needed signs of life. He topped 100 total yards last week for the second straight game. He has 15-plus fantasy points each of his last two games. The big positive for him from a fantasy perspective is his added work in the passing game. He had a season-high five receptions last week and has seven his last two games. Look for another game with 100-plus total yards this week against the Titans. Tennessee allows the third most fantasy points to running backs. The Titans have allowed at least 129-rushing yards every game this season.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams. Stafford is red hot, having two straight games with 30-plus fantasy points. And he did this against two pretty good pass defenses. He topped 370-passing yards each of those last two games and had three touchdowns each of the games. Stafford has multiple touchdowns four straight games. He gets a dream matchup this week against the Ravens, a team that can’t stop anyone defensively. Baltimore allows the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Romeo Doubs, WR, Packers. Doubs had a three-touchdown performance his last time out and has found the end zone two of three games. He has been on the field more than any Packers receiver this season, playing at least 71 percent of the snaps every game. He isn’t flashy but consistent and has a knack for producing in the red zone. We like for him to find the end zone again this week against the Bengals, a team that has allowed at least 27 points four straight games.

Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants. Skattebo might not be producing big numbers on the field but the volume is giving him good fantasy numbers on a weekly basis. He has 13-plus fantasy points four straight games. Skattebo has more than 20 total touches each of his last two games. Look for more of the same volume this week against the Eagles, a team that allows the eighth most fantasy points to running backs. Skattebo should finish with solid fantasy numbers once again in this one.

Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys. Ferguson is now first overall in fantasy tight end scoring. That might be a little surprising to some but he is racking up the catches on a weekly basis. He has nearly 20 more fantasy points than nearly any other tight end. Ferguson has at least seven receptions four straight games. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. He can keep it going this week against the Panthers, a team that struggles to stop the tight end. Carolina allows the second-most fantasy points to tight ends.

COLD PLAYS

Daniel Jones, QB, Colts. Jones is still playing just fine but has started to cool a little for fantasy teams. He has fewer than 20 gnats points three straight games. He has been pretty ho-hum for fantasy teams after two huge games to begin the season. We think another so-so showing could be in store for this week against the Cardinals. Arizona allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and has not allowed more than 23 points in any game this season.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears. Swift has decent fantasy numbers this year but is becoming a bit of a touchdown-dependent player. He has fewer than 40-rushing yards two straight games and his season high in rushing yards is just 63. His numbers on the ground have not been good. We can see him struggling again this week against the Commanders, a team that has allowed less than 100-rushing yards two of five games. Washington allows the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs.

James Cook, RB, Bills. Cook is having a great season but showed last week he is human. He ran for just 49 yards, which was the second time this season he finished with fewer than 50-rushing yards. He had three straight 100-plus yard rushing games before last week. Cook might struggle to find room to run again this week against a very good Falcons rush defense. Atlanta allows the fewest fantasy points to running backs. It is tough to bench Cook because of his high ceiling, but you might want to just taper your expectations for him in this one.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons. Pitts had his best fantasy game of the season his last time out, scoring 18 fantasy points. He had fewer than eight points each of his previous two games, though. He still isn’t as consistent as you would like. Pitts probably remains in that matchup play category and a game against Buffalo isn’t a good one for him. The Bills have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Buffalo has shut down some pretty good tight ends, including Mark Andrews, Mason Taylor, Juwan Johnson and Hunter Henry. This matchup is a concern for Pitts.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins. Waddle enjoyed his best game of the season last week, having his first 100-yard showing of the season. He had six receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. The concern is his numbers were pretty down before that big performance. He had fewer than 50 yards three of four games to start the season. Last week was encouraging but he might not be a plug-and-play player at this point of the season, especially this week against a really good Chargers secondary. Los Angeles allows the third fewest fantasy points to receivers. The Chargers allowed 150 or fewer passing yards three straight games before last week.

SLEEPERS

Hassan Haskins, RB, Chargers. You aren’t sure the back that is going to be No. 1 on the depth chart with Omarion Hampton out, but Haskins is our pick for now. And if he starts this week against the Dolphins, Haskins could produce big. The Dolphins have been gashed on the ground this year, allowing 155-plus rushing yards four of five games. They allowed more than 200-rushing yards to the Panthers last week. Haskins is worth a shot for fantasy owners in this prime matchup.

Xavier Legette, WR, Panthers. Legette returned from his hamstring injury last week and played 79 percent of the snaps. He has played at least 78 percent of the snaps all three of his games this season, getting plenty of playing time. The production hasn’t always been there but it just seems a matter of time before his numbers start getting more consistent. He had 15 targets his first two games of the season, which is really encouraging. He found the end zone last week and gets a great matchup against the Cowboys in Week 6. Dallas allows the most fantasy points to receivers, making Legette a good spot play.

Tutu Atwell, WR, Rams. Atwell is starting to see the field more often, earning more playing time. He played a season-high 66 percent of the snaps last week. He had two receptions for 72 yards and has 70-plus yards each of his last two games. Atwell is capable of breaking the big play any given week. And a game against the Ravens is a good chance for him to make one of those big plays. Baltimore allows the second most fantasy points to receivers and can’t stop anyone right now, allowing at least 37 points four of five games.

Dillon Gabriel, QB, Browns. Gabriel looked pretty good in his first NFL start. He didn’t take many chances down the field but moved the offense and made some plays. Gabriel finished with a respectable 18 fantasy points against a good Vikings defense. He has a favorable matchup for more success this week against the Browns longtime rival, the Steelers. Pittsburgh allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and at least 250-passing yards three straight games. Gabriel might be worth a look for fantasy teams in Week 6.

AJ Dillon, RB, Eagles. This is a long shot but Saquon Barkley is banged up and might not get his full workload on a short week. Dillon might get a few more chances than normal because of this. He has played the second-most snaps of any Eagles back this year. His numbers are solid with his few chances, rushing 11 times for 58 yards. If he can get near double-digit touches, he could end up helping fantasy teams in Week 6. Dillon also has a prime matchup for success against the Giants, a team that allows the seventh most fantasy points to running backs.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Cardinals/Colts, Cowboys/Panthers, Rams/Ravens, 49ers/Bucs, Lions/Chiefs, Bills/Falcons, Bears/Commanders.

Low Scoring Games: Browns/Steelers, Titans/Raiders,

Bye Weeks: Texans, Vikings.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 6

The Paur Report