Lineup Prep: Wild Card Weekend

Wed Jan 8 10:56am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Daniels can score big this week


The regular season is over but your fantasy season doesn’t have to end. We have all sorts of fantasy games to play for the playoffs. And I’m not just saying this because I work for RealTime Fantasy Sports, but fantasy playoff games are so much fun. There is different strategy involved, making it a different game to play than the regular season. I highly recommend giving one a shot this year if you haven’t before. Here is a link to everything we have to offer.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

The coaching news is one to watch closely this offseason. It makes such a huge impact on fantasy value. I know I’m anxious to see how the new coaches shake out, especially where Ben Johnson lands. And I'm sure there will be some head-scratching moves as well. I’m already confused as to why the Cowboys don’t let Mike McCarthy at least interview for jobs with other teams. Do they really think he is that good of a coach? Interesting.

You have to love the finish to the season of Bryce Young. He looked like a different quarterback after returning to the lineup in Week 8. The Panthers have to be thrilled with what they saw for him down the stretch. He had 26-plus fantasy points three of his last six games, showing some big-time fantasy potential. And you can expect the Panthers to go hard after some new receiver talent this offseason, which will help Young even more.

A lot of players had great fantasy seasons but didn’t come up quite as big in the playoffs. I haven’t run the numbers yet to see who was rostered on the most championship teams on our site, but I’m guessing Jonathan Taylor, Brian Thomas, Jahmyr Gibbs and Tee Higgins were on a lot of championship teams. These guys had huge performances throughout the fantasy playoffs. They were league winners.

Remember, early in the year when owners were released Mark Andrews and saying he was washed. Well, he showed us that wasn’t the case. He finished the season sixth in fantasy tight end scoring. He didn’t have a double-digit fantasy game until Week 6. But his finish to the season was huge, having touchdowns six straight games to end the year. He was a top fantasy starter once again, finishing sixth overall in tight end scoring.

Ja’Marr Chase had an absolutely ridiculous fantasy season. He led all fantasy receivers in scoring, finishing with 403 points. The second place finisher at receiver had 317.70 points, meaning Chase had 85.3 points more. That is crazy. He averaged about five points per game more than the second place finisher at receiver. I’m not sure I ever remember a gap that big from first to second.

Brian Thomas is a receiver to watch going forward. He was fourth overall in fantasy receiver scoring and did so with poor quarterback play for much of the season. Imagine if he got top quarterback play throughout the year. He is a special player that is going to be a fantasy star for years to come. I was shocked to see him as a top-five receiver his rookie season in that offense. This rookie receiver class lived up to expectations for the most part with Malik Nabers finished sixth as well. So we had two rookies finish in the top 10 in fantasy receiver scoring.

News and Notes: The Chargers signed running back Ezekiel Elliott on Monday. Elliott adds some more depth to the position but it is uncertain if he will be active for their playoff game this weekend.

HOT PLAYS

Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders. Daniels just played a few series last week. But before that, he had been posting huge numbers. He had 30-plus fantasy points two straight and four of five games. His numbers have been off the charts. We look for more of the same this week against the Bucs. Tampa has really struggled to stop the pass, allowing the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Plus, Daniels scored 30 fantasy points against this same Bucs team in the season opener this year.

Puka Nacua, WR, Rams. Cooper Kupp has done next to nothing in recent games, but that isn’t the case for Nacua. He has double-digit receptions two of four and at least seven receptions all four of those games. His production has been off the charts lately. He missed six games for the season and still was just 10 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season. If he plays a full year, Nacua has 122 receptions for 1,530 yards and six touchdowns. Nacua should rack up the targets again this week against a really bad Vikings secondary. Minnesota allows the most fantasy points to receivers this season.

James Cook, RB, Bills. Cook has been a touchdown machine this season. He has 18 overall scores and found the end zone four straight and seven of eight games. He also has 100-yard rushing games three of his last six. Cook is having his best season as a pro. We look for more of the same this week against the Broncos. Denver is third overall against the run but you could see the Bills getting up in this game and running the clock out, giving Cook more carries than usual. We also like Cook’s chances to find the end zone for a fifth straight game.

COLD PLAYS

JK Dobbins, RB, Chargers. Dobbins has given the Chargers a big lift in the running game since his return in Week 17. He has two straight games with double-digit fantasy points and averages 79 total yards during that stretch. Dobbins had a great comeback season, his first with the Chargers. We worry about him this week against a great Texans rush defense. Houston allows the third fewest fantasy points to running backs and ranks 11th overall against the run.

Jordan Love, QB, Packers. Love did not live up to fantasy expectations this season. He had fewer than 20 fantasy points five straight games to end his season. He had just one 300-yard game for the entire season. It would not surprise to see him fail to top 20 fantasy points again this week against the Eagles. He gets a really tough matchup on the road against a team that allows the third fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Philadelphia also is first overall against the pass, allowing just 174.2-passing yards per game.

Devonta Smith, WR, Eagles. Smith had an up and down season. He has 100-yard games two of the last four he has played but fewer than 55-receiving yards those other two games. It has been like that all season for Smith, putting his fantasy owners on a roller coaster. We like him to have one of those down games this week against the Packers. Green Bay allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to receivers and ranks 13th overall against the pass.

SLEEPERS

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, Broncos. McLaughin has 26 carries his last two games, getting the most work of the Broncos backs. He is the one to trust right now in this offense. Plus, he is the best pass-catching back of the lot, giving him more playing time on passing downs. You could see the Broncos getting down in their game this week against the Bills, leading to more chances for McLaughlin in the passing game. Plus, when the game is close, the Broncos could run often against a Bills rush defense that allows the third most fantasy points to running backs.

Zach Ertz, TE, Commanders. Ertz has touchdowns two straight games and topped 17 fantasy points each of those games. He really is the second best option in the Commanders passing game right now. He gets his weekly work. You have to like his chances for another score this week against a leaky Bucs pass defense. Tampa is 29th overall against the pass and allows the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends.

Calvin Austin, WR, Steelers. Austin was a bust last week but had at least four receptions three straight games before last week. He had four receptions for 65 yards his last time out against the Ravens. You could see the Steelers playing from behind in this game, having to throw often. And with George Pickens struggling to make plays, Austin could be a sneaky play for fantasy owners, getting more targets. Plus, the Ravens allow the fifth most fantasy points to receivers this season.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Packers/Eagles, Commanders/Bucs, Vikings/Rams.

Low Scoring Games: Chargers/Texans.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Jared Verse Feb 6 11:20pm ET
Jared Verse

Los Angeles Rams pass-rusher Jared Verse was named the 2024 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year on Thursday night. The rookie out of Florida State made an immediate impact in his first year in the NFL and totaled 37 first-place votes to beat out Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell. The 19th overall pick finished with 4.5 sacks and ranked fourth among all pass-rushers with 76 quarterback pressures. In addition, Verse was also one of eight non-linebackers to finish the year with 40-plus run stops. In L.A.'s Divisional Round loss to the Eagles, Verse had a fumble recovery returned for a touchdown. Verse's teammate, Brandon Fiske, came in third place in the Defensive Rookie of the Year voting. In addition to his 4.5 sacks on the year, Verse had 66 tackles (36 solo), two pass breakups, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries in 17 regular-season games.

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Sam Darnold Feb 6 11:20pm ET
Sam Darnold

Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell was named the 2024 NFL Coach of the Year on Thursday evening. Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell finished in second place in the voting. O'Connell led the Vikings to a surprising 14-3 record in 2024, and they narrowly missed out on the NFC's top seed for the postseason after a Week 18 loss to the division-rival Lions. Nobody realistically expected Minnesota to even sniff the playoffs after rookie first-round quarterback J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury before the regular season even started. O'Connell and his staff led QB Sam Darnold to a career-best season, as he posted career-highs in passing yards (4,319), passing touchdowns (35) and completion percentage (66.2). In his three years guiding the Vikings, O'Connell has gone 34-17, including leading the team to an NFC North title in 2022.

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Stephon Gilmore Feb 6 11:10pm ET
Stephon Gilmore

Denver Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II was named the 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year on Thursday night. Surtain tallied 26 first-place votes and became just the second defensive back to win the award since 2010, joining Stephon Gilmore, who won the award as a member of the New England Patriots in 2019. The 24-year-old came just one vote shy of being a unanimous selection for first-team All-Pro honors and recording four interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), 11 pass breakups, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery in 16 regular-season starts. According to Next Gen Stats, Surtain was targeted on only 10.9% of his coverage snaps in 2024, the lowest rate among 83 cornerbacks with 300-plus coverage snaps. He allowed 0.6 yards per coverage snap, giving up only 306 receiving yards as the nearest defender. Surtain is the first Bronco to win the award since linebacker Randy Gradishar in 1978.

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Josh Allen Feb 6 11:00pm ET
Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was named Most Valuable Player for the 2024 NFL season on Thursday. Allen barely beat out Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson for the first MVP award of his career. Despite losing receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the 28-year-old signal-caller got even better on his way to completing 64 percent of his pass attempts for 3,731 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and six interceptions in 17 regular-season games. The three-time Pro Bowler led the league with a 77.3 QBR and also added 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns on 102 rushing attempts for the Bills. Allen becomes the first Bills player to win the award since running back Thurman Thomas did so back in 1991. Allen's 12 rushing scores were second to only the Eagles' Jalen Hurts. He finished as the QB4 in overall fantasy points and will once again be one of the first QBs off the board in fantasy drafts this fall.

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Joe Burrow Feb 6 10:00pm ET
Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been named the NFL Comeback Player of the Year. This is a well deserved win for Burrow who put together a tremendous 2024 campaign. The 28-year-old threw for 4,918 passing yards with 43 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Burrow was limited to 10 games in 2023, but came back and played like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Sadly, the Bengals struggled as a team and missed the postseason, but they will look to rebound with Burrow as their leader in 2025.

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Saquon Barkley Feb 6 9:50pm ET
Saquon Barkley

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley has been named the Offensive Player of the Year. This appeared to be a three-horse race between Lamar Jackson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Barkley. It's not too shocking to see Barkley winning the award after a historic season. Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards on 345 attempts with 13 touchdowns across 16 regular season games. Now, Barkley has a chance to finish his incredible season at the top with a Super Bowl victory. The expectation is that Barkley will be one of the first players off the boards in fantasy drafts next season.

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Jayden Daniels Feb 6 9:30pm ET
Jayden Daniels

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year on Thursday. This doesn't come as surprise given Daniels had one of the best seasons for a rookie QB. He threw for 3,568 passing yards with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 17 regular season games. He also got it done on the ground with 891 rushing yards and six additional scores with his legs. Daniels was a huge part of helping the Commanders make the postseason and the NFC title game. The 24-year-old should be in the MVP discussion for years to come.

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Dallas Goedert Feb 6 9:20pm ET
Dallas Goedert

Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (ankle) was a full participant during Thursday's practice session. This is now back-to-back full practices for Goedert ahead of this Sunday's Super Bowl. The expectation is that Goedert is going to be removed from the injury report following Friday's practice. He might still be a little banged up, but at this point in the season who is 100 percent healthy. There is no reason to believe that Goedert won't be a full-go for Sunday's big game against the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Skyy Moore Feb 6 8:00pm ET
Skyy Moore

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Skyy Moore (abdomen), who remains on Injured Reserve, was listed as limited on Thursday in practice for the second straight day this week. Although the Chiefs opened Moore's practice window to come off IR recently, he has yet to put in a full practice and was listed as doubtful to play in Super Bowl LIX against the Philadelphia Eagles at the end of last week. Moore is almost certainly going to have to upgrade to a full practice on Friday to have a realistic chance of coming off IR to be active on Sunday. There's no guarantee that Moore will even see any offensive snaps against the Eagles in the unlikely event that he's even active. The 24-year-old former second-round selection in 2022 out of Western Michigan had no catches on three targets in the six games he played in 2024 before landing on IR.

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Patrick Mahomes Feb 6 7:50pm ET
Patrick Mahomes

Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter (illness) was feeling better on Thursday and was listed as a full participant after he was limited on Wednesday. Carter hasn't been at either of the media availabilities for Super Bowl LIX this week because of his illness, although his return to a full practice on Thursday means he shouldn't have any problems playing this Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. It was reported on Thursday that several other Eagles players are dealing with similar illnesses, but Carter is the only one that appears on the injury report because of it. Philly is going to need the 23-year-old's pass-rushing skills on Sunday to try and slow down quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Carter has been extremely productive in three playoff games this year, recording nine tackles (three solo), two sacks, three pass breakups and a forced fumble.

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Brandon Graham Feb 6 7:50pm ET
Brandon Graham

Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Brandon Graham (elbow) was limited in practice for the second straight day this week on Thursday. Since the Eagles opened Graham's practice window to be activated from Injured Reserve last week, he's only been able to put in limited practice sessions. However, he said earlier this week that he remains on track to return from IR to play in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs in what is expected to be the final game of his career. The 36-year-old had surgery in November to fix a torn triceps that he suffered in Week 12. Although Graham appears to be planning to play this Sunday, it remains to be seen if the Eagles will actually activate him from IR. If the veteran linebacker is active against KC, expect him to be on a limited snap count given all the time he's missed this year.

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Kenneth Gainwell Feb 6 6:30pm ET
Kenneth Gainwell

Philadelphia Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell (concussion, knee) upgraded to a full practice on Thursday after he was listed as limited in the first practice of the week on Wednesday. Gainwell suffered a concussion in the NFC Championship win over the division-rival Washington Commanders and didn't practice at all last week, putting his status in doubt for the Super Bowl on Sunday, Feb. 9, against the Kansas City Chiefs. The 25-year-old could still end up being questionable for the big game, but his return to a full practice on Thursday gives him a much greater chance of clearing the league's concussion protocol and being active on Sunday. He will still need clearance from an independent neurologist, but another full practice on Friday could get him there. Gainwell has only seven carries for 32 yards and three catches for 26 yards in three playoff games, so his role will remain small if he's able to play.

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DeVonta Smith Feb 6 6:20pm ET
DeVonta Smith

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (hamstring) was listed as a limited participant in practice for the second straight day this week on Thursday. After not practicing at all last week, Smith wasn't listed on last Friday's final injury report. It means that he will most likely practice in full on Friday and be cleared to play in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday versus the Kansas City Chiefs. The 26-year-old pass-catcher has been extremely efficient in three postseason games this year, catching all 12 of his targets for 121 yards, although he didn't find the end zone in wins over the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Washington Commanders. Smith did have four touchdowns in his final four regular-season games, though, so it wouldn't surprise anyone if he had a big game in the Super Bowl this weekend.

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Bub Means Feb 6 6:00pm ET
Bub Means

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Bub Means (ankle) said that he was cleared from his ankle injury in late January and is back to full speed as he prepares for his sophomore season in 2025. Means suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 8 and then had a setback that cost him the final nine games in the second half. The 24-year-old fifth-round pick (170th overall) caught nine of his 15 targets for 118 yards (13.1 yards per reception) and one touchdown in his seven games played (one start) in his first year in the NFL for the Saints. The Pittsburgh product emerged as an intriguing downfield threat for New Orleans in his rookie season and won't be hindered by his ankle this offseason as he prepares for what will hopefully be a bigger role in 2025. Means will most likely be a boom/bust receiver for fantasy purposes for a Saints team that still hasn't settled on a new head coach.

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Michael Wiley Feb 6 6:00pm ET
Michael Wiley

The Washington Commanders announced on Thursday that they re-signed running back Michael Wiley to a Reserve/Futures deal. Wiley was an undrafted rookie out of the University of Arizona but eventually found his way onto the Commanders' practice squad during the 2024 season. The 24-year-old never got brought up to the active 53-man roster for a regular season game, though, and he will now look to continue his development this offseason in Washington before he makes his case for a roster spot in spring training this summer. Wiley stands at 5-foot-10 and 209 pounds and is a native of Houston, Texas.

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Adam Thielen Feb 6 5:20pm ET
Adam Thielen

ESPN's David Newton reports that Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen plans to play in 2025. Thielen said at the end of the 2024 regular season that he was contemplating retirement, but after hinting toward a return recently, it appears that he will indeed return to the team next season. The 34-year-old veteran pass-catcher has one year left on the three-year, $25 million contract he signed with Carolina before the 2023 campaign. The two-time Pro Bowler had the third 1,000-yard receiving season of his career in his first year with the Panthers but regressed to 615 receiving yards and 48 receptions in 2024, although he also played in a career-low-tying 10 games due to a hamstring injury. Thielen won't be an upside target in fantasy, but his chemistry with young quarterback Bryce Young should not be discounted as a flex option in 2025.

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Sean McDermott Feb 6 2:30pm ET
Sean McDermott

Former Atlanta Falcons and Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen is expected to join the Buffalo Bills coaching staff as a senior defensive assistant, according to Bruce Feldman of the Athletic. Nielsen spent the 2017 through 2022 seasons with the New Orleans Saints in various roles before running the Atlanta defense in 2023 and the Jacksonville defense in 2024. Both of his head coaches were fired after his lone season with the respective teams, so he's now set to join Sean McDermott in Buffalo. The Jaguars surrendered the sixth-most points per game in 2024 (25.6).

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Leonard Williams Feb 6 2:20pm ET
Leonard Williams

The Seattle Seahawks and defensive lineman Leonard Williams have agreed to a restructured contract, according to team beat writer Corbin K. Smith. Seattle is converting $18.745 million of his salary into a bonus and adding two void years to the end of his deal. By doing this, Seattle drops his cap hit for 2025 by nearly $15 million. However, his cap hit will now jump to $29.6 million in 2026, and the Seahawks will carry $9.372 million in dead money in 2027 if he is not extended before the void years kick in. Williams, who was traded from the New York Giants during the 2023 campaign, registered 64 total tackles, 11 sacks, and a 92-yard interception return for a touchdown in 16 games in 2024 for Seattle.

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Tee Higgins Feb 6 12:30pm ET
Tee Higgins

During an interview on The Pat McAfee Show during Super Bowl week in New Orleans, Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson indicated that either a new deal or a trade are the only viable options for him moving forward. Hendrickson is heading into the final year of his deal in 2025 after leading the NFL in sacks (17.5), which earned him an All-Pro selection. This really isn't nothing new, as the 30-year-old star pass-rusher stated his desire for a new contract last year after a failed trade request. He also had 17.5 sacks in 2023. All four of Hendrickson's seasons in Cincy have resulted in Pro Bowl appearances, but he currently ranks 11th in annual salary among edge rushers. The Bengals have said that Hendrickson is a priority this offseason, but they will also be negotiating a bit-time contract extension for receiver Ja'Marr Chase and could be looking to re-sign receiver Tee Higgins as well.

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Trevor Lawrence Feb 6 12:20pm ET
Trevor Lawrence

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports that the Jacksonville Jaguars plan to hire former Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, likely as their passing-game coordinator, according to sources. Waldron coached with new Jaguars head coach and former Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen with the Los Angeles Rams from 2018-20. Before serving as the Bears' offensive coordinator last season, Waldron served as the Seattle Seahawks' offensive coordinator from 2021-23. He didn't make it through a full season in Chicago and was fired after just nine games. With the Rams, Waldron served as tight ends coach, pass-game coordinator and quarterbacks coach from 2017-20. In Jacksonville, Waldron will work closely with first-time offensive coordinator Grant Udinski to hopefully help quarterback Trevor Lawrence bounce back in 2025.

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