Drafting Rookies before the NFL Draft

Thu Mar 6 10:17am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Jeanty will be hot pick this year

A lot of owners like to attack their fantasy football drafts before the actual NFL draft, trying to take advantage of the price tag of the rookie class. Owners want to land that next big thing at a great price. Fantasy teams don’t know where these rookies are going to land, so it is a risky proposition but one that can pay off if you hit it big. But with that said, how should you go about drafting rookies before the actual NFL draft?

We thought the best way to analyze this was to look at what rookies have done in the past. How many rookies actually make a huge fantasy impact? The numbers might surprise you a little.

We will start with the quarterback position. Last season was a huge one for rookie quarterbacks. There were two that finished top-10 overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and another was 16th overall. That was out of the norm, though. There was not a top-10 rookie fantasy quarterback the previous two seasons. In fact, there wasn’t even a top-20 scoring rookie quarterback in 2022. So in the last three seasons, just two quarterbacks were top-10 finishers.

The class this season isn’t nearly as impressive as last. Most consider Cam Ward the top overall quarterback of the class but he isn’t a surefire thing for most. He could have some growing pains and take a few seasons to reach his potential. With that said, it probably isn’t a great idea to waste a pick on a rookie quarterback if you are drafting before the NFL draft. Past history and this year’s class make it a risky proposition.

Rookie running backs have made more of an impact in recent seasons. There have been four rookie running backs the past three seasons that were top-20 fantasy running backs. And two of those backs were top-10 finishers. But if you think about it, four is not a big number considering all the backs drafted the last three seasons. There are a lot of misses.

The rookie running back class this year looks pretty good. Ashton Jeanty is getting a lot of buzz and could be an impact player from day one. Omarion Hampton, Quinshon Judkins, Kaleb Johnson, Dylan Sampson, Cam Skattebo, Kaleb Johnson and TreVeyon Henderson all could make immediate fantasy impacts, depending on their landing spots. But again, past history suggests just one or two of these players will end up as top-20 fantasy backs their rookie seasons. Maybe take a chance on one of them in your pre-draft fantasy drafts.

Rookie receivers might be the best bet when it comes to taking chances on pre-draft rookie players. There have been three top-10 fantasy scoring rookie receivers the last three seasons and four top-20 players. And if you go a little deeper, there have been 11 rookies the last three years that were top-30 fantasy receivers. So rookie receivers tend to make more of an immediate fantasy impact based on past history.

For this year’s class, the rookie receivers aren’t quite as exciting as last year but there is some top talent there. Tetairoa McMillan, Luther Burden, Matthew Golden, Emeka Egbuka, Jack Bech and Eric Ayomanor are some top talents that could start right away and make an impact. Any of these players are worth taking a chance on. Again, it is a risk because you don’t know where they land, but all could produce some good fantasy numbers as rookies.

It used to be thought that rookie tight ends don’t make an impact. It is the toughest position to come in and produce big as a rookie. Well, that myth seems about over. The top rated fantasy scoring tight end the last two seasons has been a rookie. It is a little hard to believe but that is the case. So rookie tight ends can make an impact. But even with that said, besides Brock Bowers and Sam LaPorta the last two years, there was not another rookie top tight end that was a top-20 fantasy tight end scoring.

Is there another Bowers or LaPorta in this year’s class? Possibly. Tyler Warren is an exciting talent that could be a big producer from day one. He has some potential as a rookie. And the only other one we might consider taking pre-draft is Colston Loveland. He is another tight end that likely gets a chance to start as a rookie and help fantasy teams.

In closing, there have been nine rookies the past three seasons that have been top-10 fantasy scorers at their position. Rookies are worth taking a chance on in pre-draft fantasy drafts, but don’t go crazy. There are more hits than misses. Rookie receivers seem the safest route for fantasy drafters to take a chance and could make the biggest impact right away. Running backs have some potential as well but carry more risk. Quarterbacks were great last year but that normally isn’t the case, especially with this year’s class. And two rookie tight ends have been huge the last two seasons but that is it. The rest of the rookie tight ends have done nothing. It might be the biggest boom or bust pre-draft rookie position.

So take some chances but don’t go overboard. If you hit on one of rookies, it could pay off big. But just be prepared for many of them to not pan out. It is the ultimate gamble, especially if you are drafting before the NFL draft.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Drafting Rookies before the NFL Draft

The Paur Report